Buckwheat-free year: Russia expects a sharp drop in buckwheat harvest
The buckwheat harvest in Russia may decrease by 35% by the end of 2025, to a minimum in six years. Analysts attribute this to the bad weather conditions and economic challenges that have hit farmers recently. However, there is no shortage of the main porridge on the shelves: there are huge stocks in the country, there are imports. But, most likely, cereals will rise in price. Read more about the situation in the Izvestia article.
Crops have failed
According to agricultural analysts from the AB-Center, buckwheat harvests in 2025 will decrease by 35% compared to last year to 788 thousand tons, which will be the lowest since 2019. For comparison, in 2023, Russia harvested one of the record buckwheat harvests — 1.6 million tons, and last year — 1.2 million tons. The previous record was in 2017, when 1.5 million tons were harvested.
Among the reasons for the decrease in crop volumes in 2025 is the reduction of acreage for buckwheat. According to Rosstat, this year they amounted to only 746.4 thousand hectares. This is 32.3% less than a year earlier, and the lowest level in the last 22 years.
According to the Agroinvestor portal, the acreage under all grains has been declining for several years, and the situation with buckwheat corresponds to the general trend, but for it the decline is more dramatic — a third of the territory versus minus 5% for all grains.
The weather and the crisis of overproduction
Experts explain the decrease in acreage under buckwheat for several reasons. One of them is climatic. According to Nadezhda Kapustina, Professor of the Department of Economic Security and Risk Management at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, there was a drought in the main buckwheat—producing regions this year.
— Precipitation was also unevenly distributed, which significantly affected crop yields. Buckwheat is particularly sensitive to climatic fluctuations, as it requires a certain temperature regime and humidity at all stages of the growing season," the expert explained.
The second reason was economic challenges, including an oversupply: in recent years, farmers have increased production and as a result have accumulated huge reserves of buckwheat. As a result, purchase prices have decreased, followed by profitability, says Marina Melnichuk, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
— Low purchase prices have forced agricultural producers to give preference to oilseeds: soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower, etc. According to the relevant Ministry of the Altai Territory, last year the profitability of buckwheat was almost 10 times lower than oilseeds," the expert added.
Buckwheat production has become less profitable due to falling margins, especially against the background of a steady increase in operating costs: machinery, fuel, fertilizers and plant protection products have significantly increased in price, adds Marina Melnichuk.
— This has forced many farmers to reconsider the structure of acreage in favor of more profitable crops. Buckwheat is considered less attractive in conditions of economic uncertainty, as it is a capricious crop with unpredictable yields," says Nadezhda Kapustina.
The product will become more expensive, but there will be no shortage
Consumers should prepare for higher prices for cereals: supply has decreased significantly, but demand for the traditional product remains stable. This will inevitably affect the overall inflation rate, says economist Dmitry Morkovkin.
— Prices for buckwheat from producers are low and approaching the cost price (10-11 thousand rubles /ton), which may increase the reduction in crops. This creates the prerequisites for an increase in retail prices. However, a sharp rise in the price of cereals in the medium term should not be expected: producers have accumulated enough reserves, the economist points out.
As the Rosstat press service reported on August 20, prices for millet and buckwheat in Russia began to rise. The price of millet increased by 0.1% after a decrease of 0.3% a week earlier, buckwheat increased by 0.3%.
As the Cenosaurus monitoring service found out, after analyzing the cost of buckwheat from different producers in federal and regional retail chains in Russian cities, cereals rose in price by 3.3% over the year.
Today, the average cost of an 800-gram package is 93.8 rubles, and analysts believe that it may rise by another 15% in 2026.
The Ministry of Agriculture previously recognized the risks of rising prices for buckwheat, the cost of which has been stable for a long time. Retail chains were advised to analyze the situation and send information to the ministry on the stability of supplies, the level of demand, the share of long-term contracts and possible problems in this market. At the same time, the ministry stressed that they keep under special control the situation with production and prices of socially important products, including buckwheat.
Experts assured that there are enough cereals for everyone — you should not expect even a point shortage of products. Russia has solid accumulated reserves, besides, there are no problems with imports from neighboring countries.
Analysts also point out that the industry is adapting to changing conditions. Drought-resistant varieties are being introduced, and agricultural technologies are being improved. This will stabilize buckwheat production in the future.
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