Contagious success: measles incidence dropped four-fold
The incidence of measles in Russia has almost quadrupled in the first seven months of 2025. And the prevalence of rubella has halved, according to Rospotrebnadzor. The rise was in 2023-2024, the ministry recalled. A new one is possible in three to four years, when the proportion of unvaccinated people is sufficient to spread the disease, experts say. The reason for the current decline and how to prevent new outbreaks is in the Izvestia article.
Viral decline
From January to July 2025, the number of measles cases in Russia fell 3.6 times compared to the same period in 2024, Rospotrebnadzor told Izvestia. A cyclical rise in the incidence of measles was observed in 2023-2024, the ministry recalled.
In 2024, the incidence of measles was 11 times higher than from 2012 to 2019, as well as in 2022 and 2023, according to the annual report of Rospotrebnadzor "On the state of sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population in 2024." Last year, more than 22.4 thousand cases of measles were detected in Russia.
The trend towards a decrease in the incidence of measles in the regions is confirmed by the figures of the regional Rospotrebnadzor. For example, in the Krasnodar Territory, this indicator decreased tenfold in the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period last year. In the Rostov region, the incidence of measles in the first five months of 2025 decreased by almost 51.8 times.
In Primorsky Krai, 65% fewer people were infected in the first half of this year. Last year, doctors registered 75 cases of measles, in 2025 — only 24 cases. Among the patients, 79.2% are children, and 20.8% are adults. The incidence of measles decreased by 97.1% in the Voronezh Region. The regional Ministry of Health noted that over the past five months of 2025, only 11 cases of measles were registered, and in 2024, there were 366 cases during this period.
Last year, the incidence of measles was recorded in 83 Russian regions, according to a report by Rospotrebnadzor. The most cases last year were recorded in Moscow — 5,035, in Dagestan — 2,199 people, in the Moscow region — 1,798.
Since May 2025, the incidence of rubella has also decreased by more than two times, the Rospotrebnadzor added.
But one of the epidemiologists interviewed by Izvestia, who wished to remain anonymous, noted that it was too early to talk about a decrease in the incidence of rubella.
"Not much time has passed since the beginning of the year, and the traditional period of the rise of viral diseases — autumn — has not yet arrived," he stressed.
In 2024, the incidence of rubella was six times higher than in the period from 2012 to 2019, as well as in 2022 and 2023, according to the agency's report. In 2024, the incidence of rubella was recorded in 25 regions.
"Among the reported cases of rubella, three were imported from neighboring countries: Two from Azerbaijan to Chechnya and one from Kyrgyzstan to the Moscow region," the document says.
The largest number of rubella cases in 2024 was registered in Dagestan, Moscow and Astrakhan regions, as well as in Moscow.
"The epidemiological situation of the disease in these regions is due to defects in the work of medical organizations for routine immunization of the population," the Rospotrebnadzor report says.
According to the agency, last year the incidence of rubella was mainly registered among adults. They accounted for almost 67% of all cases of rubella. Schoolchildren were mostly ill among minors: children aged 7-14 accounted for 17% of the total number of cases.
How to prevent new infection peaks
The decrease in the incidence of measles this year is due to an increase in the number of people who have been vaccinated and have been ill, said Gennady Onishchenko, an epidemiologist and former chief sanitary officer of the country.
"Measles vaccine prevention has been carried out in Russia for more than 30 years," he recalled. — It was she who led to a sharp decrease in the incidence in the country and the almost complete elimination of mortality from this disease.
According to him, before the advent of the measles vaccine, almost all children had this disease.
— With the advent of the drug for the prevention of the disease, the number of infections has decreased. But with proper immunization, there should be no isolated cases now," stressed Gennady Onishchenko.
In 1997, rubella vaccination in Russia was included in the national calendar of preventive vaccinations, Anatoly Altstein, chief scientific virologist at the N.F. Gamalei Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, recalled. Its introduction also helps to reduce morbidity.
— In recent years, there have been violations in vaccinations in Russia: not enough people have been vaccinated against measles and rubella. This has led to an increase in the incidence, especially in 2024," he said.
Vaccination of 90% of the population, primarily children, is considered a sufficient indicator, said Andrey Pozdnyakov, an infectious disease specialist at Invitro-Siberia. Now, according to him, 70% of minors have been vaccinated.
— The indicator is higher than last year, but still insufficient, — the infectious disease specialist emphasized.
Rubella is easily tolerated by children, but it has serious consequences for pregnant women, Anatoly Altstein noted. For example, they may have a child with external defects after suffering from an illness. Measles, according to the expert, is considered a more serious disease — among its consequences may be, for example, encephalitis, which is characterized by damage to the structures of the brain. Fatal outcomes are also possible.
In 2024, according to Rospotrebnadzor, more than 5 million people were vaccinated against measles, and about 3.6 million people were vaccinated against rubella. And in the first seven months of 2025, almost 3 million people were vaccinated against measles, and almost 2 million against rubella.
Andrey Pozdnyakov is confident that the current number of vaccinated people is sufficient so that there will be no increase in the incidence of measles and rubella this fall and in 2025 as a whole.
Anatoly Altstein believes that the next increase in the incidence of measles and rubella is possible after about three years.
— Three to four years is the minimum period for which a sufficient number of unvaccinated people will accumulate in the country. The more of them there are, the higher the probability that cases from sporadic will develop into foci," he explained.
However, he did not rule out that an increase in the incidence of measles may occur after a longer period — after six years. And Gennady Onishchenko believes that this cycle can reach eight to ten years.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
