Neutral arguments: how the results of the Alaska negotiations affect the economy of the Russian Federation and the world

Until the end of August, the ruble exchange rate will remain at 80 per dollar — its strengthening below 75 is possible if the parties sign a deal on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. At the same time, the Moscow Exchange index is able to grow to 3200-3400 points. In general, the Alaska summit created a favorable background, but the real results of this meeting can be discussed when the parties move on to concrete actions. In the meantime, US President Donald Trump has already stated that he has no plans to impose new sanctions and duties against Russia and buyers of its energy resources. On what to expect from the oil market against this background and how trade between the Russian Federation and the United States may change, see the Izvestia article.

What Putin and Trump discussed at the August 15 meeting

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his American counterpart Donald Trump in Alaska on August 15. Among the main achievements of the Anchorage summit is that the leaders eventually outlined some progress in resolving the Ukrainian conflict. The two heads of state also discussed other important topics, such as trade, sanctions, and trade duties.

The Alaska Summit, although it did not lead to any legally fixed results, showed: The Russian economy has always been and will continue to be a part of the global economic system, said Vadim Kovrigin, Associate Professor at the Institute of Economics, Management and Law at Moscow State Pedagogical University. It is hardly possible to remove it from this system, no matter how many European countries would like it. The summit showed that the United States is ready to continue to constructively try to solve problems, the expert added.

The positive rhetoric of the meeting creates a favorable information background, but the real economic effect will obviously manifest itself only when moving from declarations to concrete actions. At the same time, the value of negotiations lies primarily in reducing the geopolitical risks that have held back economic development for a long time.

When will the anti-Russian sanctions be lifted?

The US administration has decided to postpone the imposition of sanctions against Russia — according to Trump, this is not necessary now. And given the parties' desire to establish economic cooperation, including in the Arctic, as Putin mentioned in Anchorage, there may even be a partial lifting of restrictions.

In general, the Russian economy is coping with difficulties in the face of sanctions and huge budget expenditures, said Vadim Kovrigin from the Moscow State Pedagogical University. However, the abolition of restrictions would give a good impetus to its development. At the same time, it is unlikely that this will happen in the very near future, because Donald Trump does not make decisions alone.

— A strong anti-Russian lobby is unlikely to allow him to lift at least some of the sanctions without ending the conflict in Ukraine. Therefore, a real conversation about lifting sanctions can only begin after the conflict ends," Vadim Kovrigin is convinced.

What will happen to trade between Russia and the United States in 2025

At a press conference following the meeting, Vladimir Putin recalled that trade with the United States had increased by 20% under the new White House administration. By the end of last year, it amounted to about $3.5 billion. At the same time, in 2014, for example, it reached about $40 billion, recalled Alexey Tarapovsky, founder of the Anderida Financial Group.

During these six months, Russian exports to the United States reached $2.5 billion, in particular, sales of fertilizers, uranium and platinum, said Alexander Timofeev, Associate Professor of Economics at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. At the same time, American supplies totaled $285 million, mainly selling vaccines, medical devices and reagents.

— The dynamics of this year brings positive notes to the forecast, however, the development of the situation will depend on further negotiations and concrete results. Now neither side wants to make sudden movements, because they understand the consequences. This gives us confidence that the trend will continue," Alexey Tarapovsky is confident.

The trade turnover between the two countries will amount to $3.7-4.5 billion this year, independent expert Andrei Barkhota believes. And in 2026, it will exceed $10 billion against the background of the active development of trade and economic relations between the two Russian Federation and the United States, he expects.

What will happen to the oil market

On Friday, on the eve of the Alaska summit, the oil market closed with a decline in quotations. Brent lost 1.5%, with a price of $66.12 per barrel. And on Monday, analysts also expect a restrained price reaction to the meeting of the presidents of Russia and the United States.

In an interview with Fox News before the meeting with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump admitted that he would not impose additional import duties against buyers of Russian oil. He later abandoned such measures against China due to the progress achieved in the negotiations. This situation is similar to the lessons of the US-China trade war: more often than not, everything ends with a balance of interests and a gradual adaptation of the parties, says Mikhail Dyakonov, founder and CEO of the logistics company Freit Logistics Group.

According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing partner of VMT Consult, Russian oil supplies will continue, and the impact on the cost of raw materials will be minimal so far.

— The introduction of immediate sanctions against Russia and secondary sanctions against other countries has been postponed. Now all attention will be focused on the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, which will take place on Monday in Washington. At the same time, it should be recalled that European leaders have not given up on further pressure on Russia and are already preparing the 19th package of sanctions. But even if a serious breakthrough in the negotiations is achieved, it is worth waiting for prices to fall from current levels. In this case, I believe OPEC+ will intervene, because even today's prices are difficult to call comfortable," she said.

Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, agrees with his colleague. In his opinion, the risks of a reduction in oil exports, which worsened after the introduction of US duties on India, are now fading.

— New restrictions against the Russian Federation should not be expected, and this will lead to a stabilization of the Urals discount to Brent near $ 10 per barrel. The long—term consequences will be assessed in the coming months, as the negotiation process progresses," the expert notes.

Following the summit, Vladimir Putin was the first to make a statement, which means a high level of trust in the Russian president on the part of the US administration and the possibility of further achieving balanced solutions for a peaceful settlement, the Director General of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media) emphasizes Tamara Safonova.

No less important, in her opinion, is Vladimir Putin's proposal put forward before the start of negotiations to put on the agenda an initiative to extend the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty, which expires in February 2026.

—This statement by the Russian president, combined with a proposal to work out Ukraine's security issues and guarantees of the absence of a threat to European countries within the framework of a comprehensive peace agreement, completely destroys the myth of the collective West about the "Russian threat", which allowed for four years to master military budgets and support the conflict in Ukraine,— Tamara Safonova emphasizes.

The expert believes that following the summit, "investors will win back peace initiatives, prospects for Russian-American cooperation, a reduction in the pressure of US trade duties and an increase in demand for hydrocarbons, which will be a positive factor for oil prices."

What will happen to the ruble exchange rate and the market after the negotiations

The Central Bank set the ruble exchange rate for the weekend just above 80 per dollar — for comparison, on August 15 it was 79.76 rubles. The negotiations were held according to a neutral scenario, so in the coming week, the American dollar will trade at about 78-81, says Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

At the same time, the expert did not rule out that the exchange rate of the national currency could strengthen below 75 per dollar — however, this will happen only if the parties conclude a peace agreement on the Ukrainian conflict.

In addition, the market has already reacted to the meeting of the two leaders. Thus, the Moscow Exchange index exceeded 3,000 points, and after the summit it fell to 2,950. Such volatility is typical for periods of uncertainty, added Nadezhda Kapustina, professor at the Department of Economic Security and Risk Management at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

In her opinion, by the end of the summer, the indicator may reach 3200-3400 if the positive dynamics in the negotiation process continues. The annual horizon suggests a growth potential of up to 3,500-3,800 points, but much depends on the implementation of agreements in practice, she said.

Nevertheless, the dynamics of August 18 will depend on what information is received by the beginning of trading, said Albert Koroev, head of the Stock Market Experts Department at BCS World of Investments. If no new important geopolitical statements are made, consolidation after a pullback is possible.