Russians were told about the growing interest in real estate after the rate cut

The reduction of the key interest rate by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) to 18% led to an increase in activity in the real estate market. People preferred to rent apartments to buy. Increased demand has fueled prices. The founder of the Brand Agent real estate center, Yana Siverskaya, told Izvestia about this on August 14.

"Traditionally, August, especially in large cities, is considered the peak of the rental season. Students actively rent apartments before the start of the school year. This year, according to my forecast, the situation will not be different. However, there is a downward trend in the Central Bank's key rate in the market right now. On July 25, it was reduced to 18% per annum," the expert noted.

She suggested that the rate will continue to decrease in the fall, which means that trends in the rental sector may change: when mortgages become more affordable, people have the opportunity to buy their own apartment rather than pay for someone else's.

"After the peak in September, prices will drop slightly. The prerequisites for this are a reduction in the Central Bank's rate and the commissioning of new residential complexes, there will be more offers on the market, and this will be followed by a reduction in cost," said Siverskaya.

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The owner of the Granel development group, Ilshat Nigmatullin, in turn, explained that the revival in the real estate market is due to several factors, the key of which is the drop in mortgage rates.

"Banks began to gradually reduce market mortgage rates: for the week of August 3-10, the drop averaged 0.37–0.65 percentage points <...> (+16.8% compared to June). In Moscow, Rosreestr recorded a 17% increase in the number of transactions in July compared to the previous month (11.4 thousand), which was the first reversal after a sluggish second quarter," he said.

The specialist clarified that the greatest activity is observed in the mass segment, primarily in 1-2-room apartments in cities with a population of one million. "One-liners" and "two-liners" are now leading in the structure of transactions. In large cities, the demand for real estate increased at double-digit rates after the rate cut. At the same time, sellers are willing to accept discounts from the initial price, which speeds up transactions in budget formats.

Nigmatullin noted that in the future, a gradual recovery in the number of transactions is expected with a restrained increase in prices. According to the Central Bank's baseline forecast, the average key rate in 2025 will be 18.8–19.6%, and in 2026 - 12-13%. At the same time, the market mortgage is still in the range of 23-24.5%, although it continues to decline.

"This will support demand in the real estate market in the mass segment, but rapid price growth is unlikely — the most likely scenario is stagnation or a mild correction in real terms until a more significant reduction in the cost of mortgages," the expert concluded.

Analysts of the Yandex Real Estate service said on August 6 that in July, prices on the secondary housing market in million-plus cities stagnated amid rising demand. At the same time, the volume of supply in the market of these cities decreased slightly over the month — by 1%. It is noted that the price dynamics close to stagnation (fluctuations from -0.5 to +0.5%) in the secondary market was recorded in seven of the 16 Russian megacities.

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