The expert warned about the risks of default in the United States and an increase in the country's national debt.

The US national debt has exceeded $37 trillion for the first time in history, which has increased it by $780 billion since the debt ceiling was raised. Evgeny Shatov, a partner at Capital Lab, told Izvestia on August 13 how this could affect the country's financial stability and possible risks to global markets.

The situation with the US national debt continues to attract attention. In 2025, the country's debt officially exceeded $37 trillion for the first time in history, as a result of the increase in the national debt ceiling signed by US President Donald Trump on July 4. This decision included tax cuts, cuts in spending on social programs, and the allocation of hundreds of billions of dollars for military funding and immigration controls. As a result, the total debt of the United States increased by $780 billion.

"Default means that the national government is unable to pay off its national debt or does not want to do so. Right now, the probability of such an event for the United States is very low. American bonds are still considered one of the most reliable in the world, they are actively bought by investors, and the government has no problem borrowing new money on the market to finance budget expenditures. However, it is worth noting that credit agencies have already lowered their assessment of the reliability of the United States by one notch. This means that investors have begun to closely monitor the growth of debt and political disputes within the country," said Shatov.

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The main threat to the financial stability of the United States, according to Shatov, is the lack of congressional agreement on raising the national debt ceiling. If the Government cannot build up new debts, it will find it difficult to cover the budget deficit and meet social obligations. In addition, for many years now, the American government has been spending more money than it receives from taxes and other revenues. This is possible precisely due to the build-up of debts: the demand for American treasuries is always high.

"According to calculations by the independent Congressional Budget Office, the country's debt will grow every year. By the end of the decade, it will exceed all previous records, and by the middle of the century it may be one and a half times more than the entire economy of the country in a year. The fastest—growing expense item is interest on this debt. In the coming years, they may become more than spending on defense or medicine," Shatov added.

According to the expert, if global interest rates remain high, the United States will have to pay even more for debt servicing. Internal disputes about raising the debt ceiling or budget can create nervousness in financial markets and undermine confidence in the country. Also, an increase in government borrowing may push up loan rates for companies and the public. This means that mortgages, business loans, and other loans will become more expensive.

"If bond prices fall, banks and the funds that hold them may incur heavy losses. This sometimes leads to problems in the financial system," concluded Shatov.

On July 25, it was reported that any attempt to limit the independence of the US Federal Reserve would "have a very bad effect on the markets." It was noted that markets value the independence of central banks, especially in setting interest rates.

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