Bottles are counted: how alcohol prices will change after licensing reform
Starting from September 2025, new rules for the collection of duties for the sale of alcohol will come into force in Russia. Instead of paying for a legal entity, as it is now, the amount will be charged from each outlet. This radically changes the rules of the game in the alcohol market, but experts agree that alcohol will not become much more expensive for consumers. Only a small, up to 3-7%, price increase is predicted in the premium segment and among importers. The details are in Izvestia.
Excise taxes and minimum prices for alcohol from September 1, 2025
By switching to the "one store, one license" model, the government wants to simplify and strengthen control of the alcohol market, increase transparency and accountability of outlets.
Previously, a violation in one of the stores could have resulted in fines or suspension of the entire retail chain, but now the sanctions will be targeted and apply only to a specific point of sale.
Vladislav Reznik, Chairman of the Union of Producers of Cognac, Alcohol and Alcoholic Beverages, member of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes, expressed hope that the innovations would help to better control the market.
— We would like to see more large, specialized sellers on the market with a greater share of responsibility to the state and society. We hope that the changes will not lead to a reduction in control over the combined activities of alcohol market chains," he said in an interview with Izvestia.
Starting from August 31, licenses for the retail sale of alcoholic beverages will be issued and renewed separately for each retail or public institution. For each year of the license, you will need to pay 20 thousand rubles if the facility is located in rural areas, and 65 thousand rubles in other cases. When opening a new place of sale of alcoholic beverages, it is necessary to renew the license and pay the state fee. Currently, the amount of 65 thousand rubles is charged once a year, regardless of the number and location of outlets.
Oleg Nikolaev, co-founder of the Sevastopol Association of Winegrowers and Winemakers, stressed that rural shops were given some relief: 20 thousand rubles instead of 65 thousand.
At the same time, Pavel Pobedkin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of PJSC AGK, the ultimate beneficiary of KLVZ Kristall LLC, notes that the initiative may lead to a reduction in the total number of outlets.
— There are a large number of retail facilities on the market today, operating on the verge of profitability. In fact, this will lead to a redistribution of the retail flow, the market will move towards the concentration of sales in more efficient, sustainable channels," the expert explained.
Izvestia sent requests for details of the innovation to the Ministry of Finance, the Russian Academy of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Federal Antimonopoly Service.
Economic perspective and business prospects
For large network players, the new scheme means a significantly increased financial burden, since the number of licenses will increase in proportion to the number of outlets. Stanislav Bogdanov, Chairman of the ACORT Presidium, describes this situation.
— The principle of "one store, one license" reduces the risks for retailers of stopping alcohol sales throughout the retail chain if violations are detected in one store. But at the same time, the financial burden on medium and large retail chains increases many times," Bogdanov explained.
The key factor in changing the cost of alcohol for citizens is competition, so retailers will strive not to raise prices sharply, but the changes will in any case put pressure on profitability and pricing, he noted.
Mikhail Vasiliev, Head of Research and consulting at Focus Technologies, adds that the transition to a new licensing model is perceived by businesses as increasing the fiscal and operational burden. This is especially sensitive for network formats with dozens or hundreds of locations.
— There is also a risk of increasing the claim burden. Formally, this is an increase in control, but in practice it can lead to an increase in technical violations and fines. An increase in product prices is possible, especially in the premium segments. In fact, the measure may accelerate market consolidation," the expert said.
Responsibility and control: the new reality
With the introduction of licensing accounting, targeted responsibility and greater differentiation of control come at each point, says Ekaterina Shveyeva, Associate Professor of the Department of Management and Public Municipal Administration at MGUTU named after K.G. Razumovsky.
— This removes risks for retail chains as a whole, but increases the requirements for accurate documentation and on-site control. Control will change, in particular, targeted liability for violations will be used," she says.
Peter Shelishch, the co-chairman of the SPRF, notes that the new system is fairer.
"The punishment of deprivation or suspension of a license for the entire network with hundreds, thousands or even tens of thousands of retail facilities for a violation in one of them seems to me obviously unfair, and it's good that this injustice has been eliminated," the expert emphasized.
Dmitry Terentyev, an alcohol market lawyer, also emphasizes that with the new rules, if a single mistake occurs, large chains will be able not to stop the sale of alcoholic beverages in the entire region.
Implications for retail and consumers
The transition to a duty from each outlet means that many small and low-margin stores operating on the verge of profitability may close. This is the opinion of the experts interviewed.
According to Mikhail Vasiliev, gastronomic projects and "at home" formats are particularly vulnerable, where margins are low and turnover is unstable.
Pavel Pobedkin notes that this will lead to a shift in turnover to larger, more efficient channels, which is positive from the point of view of manufacturers and distributors.
—Fewer outlets means more manageability, increased transparency of distribution chains and more effective control over sales," the expert believes.
At the same time, experts from the Center for Consumer Market Development at the Moscow State University Faculty of Economics draw attention to more complex risks.
— If the state's goal is to simultaneously reduce alcohol consumption and increase budget revenues, is it possible to achieve these two effects simultaneously? Won't it turn out that with a decrease in legal turnover, the shadow turnover will increase? "What is it?" they ask.
Gennady Oparin, chairman of the Union of Farmers' Wineries and head of the Semigorye farm, warns of the negative consequences of the tightening: "it will be more expensive, and there will most likely be a new regulation."
— We can see that there is a trend towards limiting alcohol sales in the regions. This is a specific solution. We already went through this in the 80s with prohibition, when there was a lot of social pressure and negative consequences," the expert recalls.
Price aspect: how much alcohol will rise in price
Almost all experts agree that a significant jump in alcohol prices is not expected for the end user.
Dmitry Terentyev clarifies that the increase in state duty is unlikely to affect the cost of alcoholic beverages, since the cost of state duty in the total amount of expenses is insignificant. However, Mikhail Vasiliev predicts that in the premium segments and among importers, price increases may reach 3-7%. The effect will be less noticeable in the mass segment.
Petr Shelishch admits the possibility of a slight price increase for large chains, but believes that, on the other hand, it will increase the competitiveness of small outlets. Oleg Nikolaev emphasizes that for large chains the additional costs will not exceed five rubles per bottle.
New duties and their impact on the legal market
The main concern is the possible curtailment of trade and production in small towns, said Alexey Yerikov, Chairman of the Council of the Nizhny Novgorod Regional Union of Consumer Societies.
— If, for example, cooperatives are forced to close unprofitable outlets, this will affect the availability of goods for rural residents. As a result, not only business will suffer, but also the social infrastructure of the territories. The authorities should take into account the cumulative effect of such decisions and seek a balance between fiscal interests and support for small business.
The transition to duties from each outlet, against the background of stricter controls and increased transparency, highlights not only the fiscal interest of the state, but also attempts to combat the illegal market.
Ekaterina Shveeva warns about the risks for legal retail:
— All this is happening against the background of the ongoing active fight against specialized alcohol retail. The question arises, won't the new system make working according to the rules less profitable?
Oleg Nikolaev draws attention to the fact that the situation is becoming easier for small rural sellers, but such private trade in rural areas is mainly conducted through individual entrepreneurs, and strong alcohol is not available to them. Stanislav Bogdanov believes that the relief for rural areas will help to legalize the small-scale alcohol trade in rural areas, where the illegal market is currently particularly active.
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