Experts spoke about the risks of the ruble exchange rate below 75 and above 110 per dollar

The authorities have identified critical values for the ruble-dollar exchange rate, finding that rates below 75 and above 110 rubles per dollar pose strategic risks to the economy. This approach is fixed in the list of strategic risks attached to the letter from Polina Kryuchkova, Deputy Head of the Ministry of Economic Development. Experts told Izvestia on August 7 why maintaining the ruble exchange rate in the range of 85-100 rubles per dollar is critically important for the stability of the economy and social programs.

Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, noted that the current ruble exchange rate is supported by several instruments at once. Firstly, the budget rule works, which involves daily sales of currency and gold by the Ministry of Finance, which smooths out sharp fluctuations. Secondly, "Presidential Decree No. 771 obliges exporters to sell 40-60% of foreign exchange earnings," which increases the supply of dollars and yuan. Thirdly, the high key rate (18%) stimulates demand for the ruble and limits speculation in foreign currency.

According to Astafyev, despite the sanctions pressure, the state retains the ability to influence the ruble exchange rate, but it is expensive. High interest rates slow down the economy and increase the cost of loans. The ruble exchange rate, despite currency interventions and administrative measures, is subject to fluctuations, and this negatively affects investment and consumer demand.

"Too strong a ruble — below 75 rubles per dollar — is also considered a risk. At this rate, imports become cheaper, inflation slows down, but the budget, which is 35-40% dependent on oil and gas revenues, receives less rubles for export earnings. This reduces the opportunity to finance national projects, subsidies to the regions and preferential mortgages. Therefore, the exchange rate below 75 rubles, as well as above 110 rubles, is classified in the Ministry of Economic Development as a "red zone" of strategic risks," Astafyev said.

On all 110: the authorities have identified an undesirable dollar exchange rate for the economy

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Fyodor Sidorov, a private investor and founder of the School of Practical Investment, added that the excessive strengthening of the ruble makes exports less competitive, which reduces foreign exchange earnings and worsens the financial performance of the budget. At a time when the Russian budget largely depends on oil and gas and other raw materials revenues, a strong ruble means fewer rubles for the same volumes of export earnings. This undermines the stability of the treasury and limits the ability to finance social obligations, government programs and investments.

"In addition, a strong ruble can discourage the development of domestic production, especially in industries competing with imports. As a result, there is a bias: the strengthening of the currency temporarily reduces prices, but strategically weakens the industrial base," Sidorov said.

According to the expert, the ruble exchange rate directly affects the implementation of social programs. When the ruble weakens above 100 rubles per dollar, imports become more expensive, which leads to higher prices for goods, medicines and building materials. In turn, this increases the burden on the budget, which requires more compensation payments and indexation of benefits.

Spartak Sobolev, head of Alfa-Forex's Research and Investment Strategies department, told Izvestia on August 5 that fluctuations in foreign exchange rates in the second week of August would be in the range of 78-82 rubles per dollar, 89-94 rubles per euro and 10.8–11.4 rubles per yuan. According to Sobolev, the noticeable weakening of the ruble at the end of July probably attracted the attention of exporters, who sold their accumulated revenue at more favorable price levels.

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