Experts expect a decrease in trade turnover between the United States and India due to the tariff conflict

If the US authorities decide to increase trade duties against India from 25% to 100%, and New Delhi responds to Washington with additional measures, then the volume of mutual trade between the countries risks decreasing by tens of percent, analysts polled by Izvestia believe.

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In particular, according to Ekaterina Novikova, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, the volume of bilateral trade with America may decrease by about 7-10%. For comparison, the trade turnover amounted to about $129 billion a year earlier.

Now, US President Donald Trump has managed to conclude an agreement that is beneficial for him with European states. Now he is preparing for a dialogue with China, independent expert Andrei Barkhota recalled.

"In order to achieve the desired result, the American administration is using tricks. The fact is that India is a geopolitical rival of China. And Washington's pressure on New Delhi is also in the orbit of Beijing's interests. In addition, America is limiting contacts with Taiwan and extending the validity of more restrained duties on imported Chinese products. These steps are aimed at achieving China's relative favor," the economist explained.

In addition, the trade turnover between Russia and India in 2024 reached a record of $70.6 billion. Analysts are confident that the trade turnover will grow in 2025 anyway. Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, predicts that it could reach $74-76 billion in the absence of external shocks, and about $71-72 billion in the case of intervention.

Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:

Commodity breakthrough: how the tariff conflict between the United States and India will affect global trade