The expert spoke about the reasons for the increase in oil production by OPEC+ countries.

Eight OPEC+ countries have decided to increase oil production amid continued global demand and political pressure. Evgeny Shatov, a partner at Capital Lab, told Izvestia about this on August 5.

"Representatives of the cartel claim that they expect growing demand, but the increase in production is more likely due to a number of political reasons. Saudi Arabia and other members of the alliance, including Russia, are seeking to regain market share lost due to years of production cuts. It is also a signal that they are not ready to put up with quota violations by Iraq and Kazakhstan," Shatov said.

The expert noted that the decision to adjust production could also be influenced by pressure from consumer countries such as the United States and the European Union (EU). These players are striving to reduce the inflation rate by increasing the supply of energy resources, even if this does not fully correspond to the real market picture. OPEC+ demonstrates willingness to react, but maintains control.

Recovery period: OPEC+ members agreed to increase oil production

Why did the alliance make such a decision and was it affected by the American tariff wars?

Shatov also pointed to the factor of secondary sanctions threatening the global oil trade. According to the expert, US President Donald Trump has threatened restrictions on buyers of Russian oil, which could lead to supply disruptions and price increases. In particular, India, which is one of the largest importers of oil from Russia, may be under attack. Last week, Trump already announced the imposition of 25% duties on Indian goods, and if Indian refineries stop purchasing Russian oil, there may be a short-term shortage on the market.

"There is a general tension in the oil market now. Many participating countries are no longer able to meet their quotas due to underinvestment, so the actual increase in supply may be lower than stated. Therefore, it is unlikely to expect significant shocks in the market. Any short-term price reduction will be temporary, as the fundamental balance of supply and demand continues to be in short supply," Shatov explained.

In conclusion, the expert clarified that from the point of view of exporting countries, the current solution will allow to maintain control over the market and support the filling of budgets. This will allow OPEC+ countries not to lose market shares and not give them to countries outside the cartel.

During the meeting on August 3, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase oil production quotas by 547,000 barrels per day compared to August, as well as to begin a gradual and flexible return to voluntary production adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day. It is noted that the phased cancellation of additional voluntary production adjustments may be suspended or cancelled depending on changing market conditions.

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