The expert explained the changes in banks' profits against the background of a reduction in the key interest rate

Banks are already planning a further reduction in the key interest rate in the trajectory of their loan and deposit products. In particular, they are revising their own profit forecasts, Valery Piven, Managing Director and head of the ACRA Financial Institutions ratings group, told Izvestia.

The industry's results for the first half of the year against the background of a reduction in the key interest rate can be called ambiguous, the expert stressed. On the one hand, the net profit of banks for the first six months of 2025 was at the level of the first half of 2024, on the other hand, this is largely due to one—time factors, Piven believes.

For example, VTB records a higher financial result in the first half of the year than last year for the same period, the expert notes.

"Despite the fact that almost half of the banks from the largest hundred credit institutions show a decrease in net profit in the first half of the year, this can be considered a normal phenomenon against the background of the actual cessation of credit growth," Piven said.

According to the expert, profitability is directly related to the ability of credit institutions to maintain a level of net interest margin, which, by the end of the year, may be higher than 4%. Net profit is likely to be in the range of 3-3.5 trillion rubles, predicts the head of the group of ratings of financial institutions of ACRA.

"Banks can improve forecasts, however, this may be more likely due to the conservatism of early estimates, rather than a radical improvement in the situation in the industry," says Piven.

This will allow banks to maintain capital adequacy ratios at a higher level, taking into account the payment of dividends. In addition, an improvement in forecasts will also provide a potential reserve for banks to maintain lending activity, Piven believes.