Experts predicted the ruble exchange rate for August

In August, the dollar-ruble exchange rate is likely to remain in the range of 79-80 rubles per dollar, Alexey Lossan, an analyst at the Compare financial marketplace, told Izvestia on August 1.

"As for the ruble–euro pair, a slight weakening is expected in the range of 92-92.5 rubles. In the ruble–yuan pair, trading can be predicted in the range of 11.2–11.3 rubles. The weakening of the ruble in this segment is likely to be minimal, as there is no shortage of yuan liquidity in Russia," he said.

Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, also notes the stability of the exchange rate over the past week - the ruble remained in the range of 78-79 rubles per dollar. In addition, the foreign exchange market remains stable due to the active sale of export earnings and the extended requirement for the repatriation of 40% of foreign exchange earnings until 2026.

However, as Astafyev noted, monetary policy easing and weak oil (Brent — about $69) may temporarily weaken the ruble in early August. The national currency will continue to be supported by the tax period in the second half of the month, when companies will begin to actively sell the currency for taxes.

"The base forecast for August is: dollar — 78-82 rubles, euro — 90-94 rubles, yuan — 10.9–11.3 rubles. Short-term fluctuations are possible after the rate cut, but the ruble may strengthen in the third decade of the month. The risks of weakening to 85 rubles per dollar are associated with a possible drop in oil below $65, increased imports and sanctions rhetoric, but their implementation is expected sooner in the fall. In general, fundamental factors are still working in favor of the stability of the exchange rate," the expert summed up.

Waiting for the key: the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will be determined by the outcome of the Central Bank meeting

Most experts predict a rate of no more than 80 rubles per dollar, even taking into account the reduction in the key rate

On July 25, the central bank lowered its key rate from 20% to 18% per annum. It is noted that further decisions on the key rate will be made depending on the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation and the dynamics of inflation expectations. According to the Central Bank's forecast, annual inflation will decrease to 6-7% this year, and return to 4% in 2026.

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