Cyrus the faceless: the ratings of the British Prime Minister are rapidly falling
The ratings of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have dropped to a historically low level over the year, and the kingdom is talking about launching a countdown to retirement. The Labor Party did not meet the expectations of the British in literally any of the problem areas: from the migration issue to the economic sphere. Against this background, the level of support for Jeremy Corbyn's "new left" and Nigel Farage's "new conservatives" Reform Party is consistently growing. What is happening with the rating of the current government and what outcome can almost certainly be expected for the UK and the Labor Party from the upcoming 2029 elections is in the Izvestia article.
Migration as an electoral factor
Keir Starmer's approval rating has reached an all-time low during his tenure. A survey by the More in Common analytical center conducted for The Times showed that the level of support for the British prime minister was positive only immediately after his election to office and amounted to 11 points, but then quickly decreased to negative values. "Internal strife in the government undermined the credibility of the Labor Party and gave Starmer the lowest approval rating in history — minus 43," the publication states.
In the May elections to the House of Commons, representatives of the new left forces, who maintain close ties with diasporas and, consequently, promote pro-Palestinian views on the Middle East crisis, won a significant number of seats. It is noteworthy that until quite recently, this part of the electorate was considered unconditional supporters of the Labor Party.
Migrants at a tent camp on the shores of the English Channel in Calais, France
According to experts, this trend will only continue to grow. In 60 districts of Britain (which is 9% of their total number), the proportion of migrants is already above 20%.
Political scientist Malek Dudakov notes that migrants now account for 100% of the total population growth in the UK. "With hundreds of thousands of migrants arriving every year, parties already have to bow to diasporas. And those are taking full advantage of their growing influence. Whether it will still be after another 10 years against the background of such Balkanization," he writes in his Telegram channel.
A boat with migrants in the English Channel off the coast of Great Britain
In the spring of 2026, during the municipal elections, another 30 Labor districts may be under attack. Here you can expect a blow not only from liberal opponents, but also from the right, led by the Reform Party and Nigel Farage. It is expected that in Wales and the "reformists" there are great chances to win a lot of votes and lead the regional government. In Scotland, nationalists are likely to dominate.
A couple of months ago, Keir Starmer also announced a tightening of migration policy in the UK. Now, in order to obtain permanent residence status, you need to live in the country not for five years, but for 10. There will be exceptions for immigrants who can make a "significant contribution to the country's economy." However, by cracking down on the legacy of the Conservatives and criticizing their predecessors, the Labor Party ended up further exacerbating the migration crisis in the state — the number of illegal crossings of the English Channel increased by 20%.
Protest against migrants in London suburbs
Speaking about migration policy in the country, Vasily Egorov, the author of the Westminster telegram channel and an expert on British politics, told Izvestia that the Labor Party was "unable" to solve the problems it was actively facing. This also applies to social issues and the economic sphere.
— Keir Starmer is trying and trying to at least verbally say what [voters] want to hear: more money, the fight against illegal immigrants, and so on. But first of all, there is no money, and there is no magic tree from where to get it. And he might want to solve the situation with migrants, but there are many pitfalls, starting from the ECHR and ending with a fairly large faction within the Labor Party that does not want to fight this, the expert is sure.
Economic peak
In July 2024, after 14 years under the leadership of the Conservatives, Great Britain switched to the Labour Party. They returned triumphantly, despite the fact that, according to most experts, the country voted not so much for them, but against the Tories (the historical name of the Conservatives) and Rishi Sunak. The British have become disillusioned with the latter's ability to govern and resolve sensitive issues.
The kingdom's economy is the main source of problems. Starmer's cabinet promised to "cleanse the country" of the Conservative legacy. Deputy Prime Minister Angel Rayner and Finance Minister (Chancellor of the Exchequer) Rachel Reeves decided to reduce social spending, but they expectedly faced negative reactions from voters and MPs of their own party. After all, the Labor Party has traditionally advocated a welfare state, and also criticized the Tories' desire to save money.
After five years, Brexit has not brought the promised dividends, but the country has lost its main trading partner, the European Union. The national debt has already reached 100% of GDP. Its payments remain among the highest among developed countries. The problem can be solved by increasing budget revenues, but the kingdom's economy is stagnating: growth is less than 1% per year.
This year, the country borrowed £143 billion to cover the budget deficit, but immediately spent about 80% on paying interest on the national debt. Right now, the Labor Party has only one option left — higher taxes, but such measures rarely lead to popularity.
Things are also going badly in the social sphere: healthcare reforms have not been implemented, real incomes of the population have fallen by 3%, and utility prices continue to rise.
The exit is found
Most Britons believe that Keir Starmer will not last in office until the next general election. A February YouGov survey showed that Nigel Farage's party overtook Labour in approval ratings for the first time.
The ruling party is losing seats in the House of Commons. In the elections a year ago, it won 411 seats (326 votes are enough to pass laws). But as time passed, internal party contradictions became more and more obvious. Recently, the Labor Party removed five more MPs from its ranks, four of whom openly refused to support reforms to reduce social benefits. Now there are 398 of them left.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks in the House of Commons
However, the Starmer government may have found a way out of the electoral peak. It has taken the initiative to lower the voting age to 16 years. Young people already have the right to vote in elections to local councils and parliaments in Scotland and Wales, however, the age limit for participating in such events in England or Northern Ireland is 18 years. If the Labor Party succeeds in carrying out its plans, then they will quite realistically acquire a working electoral base.
According to the latest YouGov poll, leftist parties are popular among young people between the ages of 18 and 24. The Labor Party leads the table (28%), followed by the Greens (26%), followed by the Liberal Democrats (20%).
Elena Ananyeva, head of the Center for British Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview with Izvestia, shared the opinion that the next elections in 2029 could end with the establishment of a "hung parliament" for the UK, where none of the parties, whether right or left, would be able to take the majority.
— I think we can say that there will be a so-called suspension of parliament, when none of the parties will get a majority of seats. Now the conservatives are also in a serious crisis and it is unlikely that they will cope with it by the 29th year. Because Boris Johnson took out all the heavyweight competitors at the time," the expert says.
The sworn opposition
In early July, Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour Party, announced the creation of his own party. The politician promises voters that she will be even more leftist than the Labor Party, and most importantly, pro—Palestinian. The "Corbyn party" also provides for a reduction in spending on social spending.
Unlike Starmer, Nigel Farage's success is also due to the fact that he promises to do exactly the opposite: regain control of borders and get rid of migrants, stop military aid to Ukraine and reduce taxes in the state. A few months ago, the leader of the Reform UK party even announced that if he came to power, he would establish the post of minister for deportations. "We will appoint, we will demand that this government do the same, that there be a minister for deportations. As part of the Ministry of the Interior, but it will be a separate department," the politician said, speaking to supporters in Dover.
Former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn during the National March in Support of Palestine in London
Elena Ananyeva is sure that voters no longer want to choose the traditional failed parties that have already performed poorly in the elections. The Labour and Conservative Parties have alternated in power for a long time and have already seemingly outlived their usefulness.
— Recently, the Conservative Party has not always been able to win outright, so in 2010, David Cameron led a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats. And Theresa May, when in 2017, in general, the party also suffered electoral setbacks, entered into a so-called support agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party. <...> Therefore, people turn to the edges of the political spectrum, because this whole center has failed. Where can I find an alternative? Either on the right or on the left. Either Farage or Corbin," the expert states.
Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage at a press conference
In turn, Vasily Egorov says that the electorate lacks diversity. Corbyn's new party and Farage's Reform UK are a breath of fresh air for the British. The outdated Tories and Labour are now barely gaining votes, and something that may be to the left will appeal to voters.
— We see that, in general, the conservatives are in a "coma". The Labor Party is also barely gaining 25% now. That is, between the two of them, the two once main parties, which calmly gained 70-85% of the vote in the best of times, are now gaining some 40-45% between the two. People are bored and ready to vote for new projects," the expert concluded.
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