In Europe, they are afraid of a possible withdrawal of part of the US troops. And here's why

Discussions have been ongoing at the Pentagon for several weeks about the possible withdrawal of some of the American troops stationed in the European Union. Currently, there are between 90,000 and 100,000 US troops stationed there, but Washington intends to reduce this number by about a third, returning home about 20,000 soldiers. This is causing great concern in European capitals, for which the US military presence is an important symbol of support from overseas. What processes are indicated by the intention of the United States to reduce the number of soldiers in the EU and how this will affect European countries - in the analysis of Izvestia.

Slower response, higher costs

• A decrease in the US military presence in Europe can negatively affect the security system on the continent. For decades, American troops have played a key role in ensuring the sustainability of NATO's defense structure. In particular, they acted as a deterrent to potential threats. Their deployment in countries such as Germany, Poland and Italy allows them to quickly respond to emerging crises, maintain military readiness and participate in joint exercises aimed at developing cooperation between the various armies of the alliance. It will take 12 years to replace US troops in Europe.

• The largest number of American military personnel is stationed in Germany — about 38 thousand people. It is followed by Poland, where there are about 14 thousand military personnel from the United States, followed by Italy with a contingent of 12 thousand. In a number of European capitals, it is assumed that the withdrawal of American army units deployed to Europe during the presidency of former US President Joe Biden will begin this fall. The decrease in numbers, according to preliminary estimates, may affect about 20-25 thousand military personnel. The biggest changes are expected in Poland and Romania, where significant logistics hubs are located. These facilities are planned to be transferred under the leadership of the NATO structure, which will become part of the process of reorganizing the US military presence in the region.

• A reduction in the number of troops may lead to a decrease in NATO's operational flexibility in the region. It could also slow down the response time to potential incidents, reduce the intensity of training involving allied countries, and weaken the military infrastructure established to accommodate and supply American forces. In addition, such a decision could create political uncertainty among the members of the alliance.

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For some countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the presence of American troops is perceived as the most important symbol of Washington's support. In the event of a large-scale drawdown of the US Armed Forces, it may be necessary to reallocate tasks and resources within the alliance, which will require additional costs from European states and strengthening their own defensive capabilities.

It will be difficult for Europe alone

• The idea of creating a completely independent security system in Europe without relying on the United States seems attractive in theory. However, in practice, its implementation faces a number of significant difficulties, which makes such plans unrealizable in the foreseeable future. For example, from a military point of view, Europe is heavily dependent on American strategic capabilities such as a global intelligence network, satellite surveillance, advanced missile defense systems, and long-range aviation. These elements are either absent in European countries or are in the initial stages of development and cannot provide an adequate level of protection without the participation of the United States.

• In addition, the financial costs required to create an independent defense structure, comparable in efficiency to the existing system based on the participation of the United States, are extremely high. For many EU states, increasing military budgets to the required level will mean the need to redistribute significant funds from other areas, such as healthcare, social protection or education. This will inevitably cause political and public controversy. For example, in France, they are already dissatisfied with the plans of their president Emmanuel Macron to double defense spending (we wrote more about this here).

• There is a noticeable contrast in the financial situation of European countries. At the beginning of 2025, Germany's public debt in relation to GDP reached 62.3%, while in France this figure was at 114.1%, significantly exceeding the EU limit of 60%. This also makes it difficult for European countries to come closer in the defense sector.

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Washington intends to transfer the liberated forces to Asia.

• At the moment, not all European countries are approaching the 2% of GDP target for defense set within the framework of NATO. In 2024, 22 of the alliance's 32 states spent less. This means that there is still no unified political will on the continent on the issue of strategic autonomy. Despite this, Trump demands that NATO countries spend 5% of GDP on defense, although it is obvious that this is unlikely to be feasible in the current conditions.

• In addition, there is no complete agreement between the European states on key issues of military policy, including the principles of the use of force, the structure of command, the purchase of weapons and priority threats. Differences in strategic interests and relations with non-aligned countries make it difficult to create a unified defense space. Even within the framework of existing initiatives, in particular "Permanent Structured Cooperation", significant results have not yet been observed.

• The US presence in Europe has also become a political tool for decades, ensuring trust between NATO member countries and contributing to the internal stability of the alliance. A sharp weakening of American involvement could lead to a rebalancing within Europe, increase competition for leadership, and weaken the overall level of coordination.

In addition, the reduction of the US military presence in Europe discussed at the Pentagon is associated with the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2020-2021. Trump himself called Joe Biden's decision the most shameful day in the country's history. However, his policy on European security may also damage the international reputation of the United States and strategic relations with many countries.

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How can the dialogue between Moscow and Washington change the situation?

• As a result, in the context of the current technological lag, lack of resources, disunity of political positions and institutional dependence on the United States, the ideas of full strategic autonomy of Europe are still at the stage of declarations and concepts. These plans are not supported by a sufficient resource base. In the event of a reduction in the number of troops in Europe, Washington, in turn, risks undermining the trust of its allies.

When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:

• Ilya Kravchenko, an American political scientist and advisor to the Director of RISI;
• Vladimir Batyuk, an American political scientist and Chief Researcher at the Arbatov Institute of the USA and Canada (ISKRAN);
• American political scientist Malek Dudakov.