Experts spoke about the consequences of lowering the key rate

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation continued to ease monetary policy, reducing the key rate by 2 percentage points to 18%. This decision has already affected the mood of financial market participants, as well as the expectations of banks and developers regarding consumer and mortgage demand. Experts told Izvestia about this on July 25.

According to VTB, the rate cut creates conditions for a moderate recovery in the retail lending segment, including mortgages. The savings market is starting to adjust: in July, the yield on deposits in the largest banks dropped below 18%, and the trend for its further decline will continue. According to forecasts, by the end of 2025, the total amount of savings will reach 67 trillion rubles, of which 63.5 trillion are in rubles.

The credit market is showing a partial recovery: VTB raised its forecast for mortgage loans to 4.04 trillion rubles (against 3.8 trillion previously), and for cash loans to 3.5 trillion.

"It's too early to talk about drastic changes in the market. Government support programs will continue to play a leading role until the end of the year." The bank has already reduced the rates on cash loans by 2 percentage points, but further steps will depend on the position of the regulator," the press service said.

The reaction of developers to the rate cut was restrained. Evgeny Belokurov, Commercial Director of Yandex Real Estate, noted that today's reduction in the key interest rate is an expected decision that has already been taken into account by the market. It is worth noting that the Bank of Russia increased the mitigation step, which was positively perceived by market participants. However, the effect of this decision is likely to be moderate. The current rate level is still high, so it is important to keep an eye on the Central Bank's comments on further monetary policy easing.

According to him, with a further reduction in the rate, we will observe a smooth increase in prices in the comfort class, where demand dynamics is more dependent on mortgage programs. The trend of the previous months will continue in the business and elite classes, as they are less tied to market mortgage conditions.

Waiting for the key: the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will be determined by the outcome of the Central Bank meeting

Most experts predict a rate of no more than 80 rubles per dollar, even taking into account the reduction in the key rate

He also stressed that a more noticeable recovery in demand is possible in the secondary market, which is due to the effect of a low base. This segment is most dependent on market lending conditions, so lowering interest rates attracts new potential buyers to the secondary market. In general, the current decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is an important step, but a steady recovery in demand is possible if the interest rate is fixed at a lower level in the long term.

Viktor Timofeev, commercial director of the developer Radiance, believes that the trend may continue and by the end of the second half of the year the key rate may reach 16-17%. However, as Kolunov added, in order for the situation to change dramatically, the rate should stop being restrictive and drop to at least 15%.

In turn, sales director of the Marmax developer Anna Terekhova pointed out that such dynamics will allow developers to reduce the cost of subsidizing rates and expand opportunities for customers who do not have access to preferential programs — they will be able to take advantage of current lending offers.

The Central Bank's further steps will depend on inflation: if it continues to fall, the regulator may ease policy by another 1%, said Dmitry Sofronov, Commercial Director of DARS Group. However, the mortgage rate will remain high for now — about 20%.

"Looking at the Central Bank's decision to cut the rate to 18% per annum, it is important to understand the macroeconomic context. After a long period of tight monetary policy, with the interest rate held at record levels, the situation has changed. These are the key reasons: slowing inflation, weak domestic demand, and declining inflation expectations. A new investment cycle has now begun. The Central Bank will carefully lower the rate, focusing on inflation, exchange rate dynamics and labor market behavior," said Igor Feinman, an independent investment adviser licensed by the Bank of Russia.

He added that "the rate cut to 18% is a positive signal for investors, but not a reason to lose caution: we are following macroeconomic trends and acting consciously."

Olga Boyko, Director of the Financial Services Department at Rolf, said on July 27 that lowering the key interest rate by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation could become a growth driver for the Russian car market. The decline occurs for the second month in a row, which forms a trend that may turn out to be a trigger for consumer activity.

All important news is on the Izvestia channel in the MAX messenger.