The roof is tilted: a new Maidan is breaking out in Ukraine
Large-scale protests are breaking out in Ukraine against the curtailment of the powers of anti-corruption bodies. 9 thousand people gathered in Kiev for the last rally, some stayed overnight on the square. Experts say that this whole situation could threaten the government of Zelensky, who has already promised to review legislative norms. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
What happened
The Verkhovna Rada approved the law on reassigning the anti-corruption bodies of NABU and SAP on July 22, and the document was later signed by Volodymyr Zelensky. On the same evening, protests took place in the largest Ukrainian cities, which became the largest since the beginning of the Civil War. The demonstrations took place despite martial law and curfew, and many well-known politicians took part in the rallies.
So, in Kiev, about 1 thousand people came to the square, they were joined by several opposition deputies of the rada, as well as the mayor of the city, Vitali Klitschko. The crowd held homemade posters in their hands, and also chanted "No corruption in power," "Shame!" and numerous obscene chants addressed to President Zelensky and the head of his office, Andriy Ermak.
The next evening, the demonstrations continued, but they turned out to be even more extensive. In Kiev, about 9 thousand people have already gone to the city center, several dozen stayed overnight on the square after the rally. The geography of the country as a whole has expanded, with rallies held in Lviv, Odessa, Kharkiv and a number of other cities. There were also vivid episodes: participants brought a coffin with the inscription "Justice" to the center of Dnipro, candles and wreaths were placed around.
Performances are expected to continue on the evening of the 24th. "In Kiev, the rally will take place in a park near the Ivan Franko Theater next to the president's office, starting at 20:00," said Andrei Dmytruk, a non—factional rada deputy. According to him, the main thing should be the demand for Zelensky's resignation. "This is the essence that cannot be erased by secondary slogans. Everything else is derivative," he stressed.
At the same time, several devastating publications about the situation in Ukraine were published in the Western press. The Economist published an article in which the law on NABU and SAP is called a gross strategic mistake. Politico wrote that "its own semi-autocratic leadership" has become one of Ukraine's main enemies. Bloomberg called the incident Zelensky's main miscalculation during his entire time in power.
It is noted that due to the scandalous law, the process of Ukraine's accession to the EU and Kiev's military support may be at risk. "Dismantling the mechanisms protecting the independence of NABU and SAP is a serious step backwards. Independent anti—corruption bodies are of key importance on the way to the EU," said European Commissioner Marta Kos. In turn, Donald Trump, without directly mentioning the Ukrainian law, reiterated that the multibillion-dollar American aid to Kiev was actually stolen.
What's next
The anti-corruption bodies NABU and SAPO appeared after the 2014 Maidan. The main feature of these structures is that they are not subordinate to the central Ukrainian government, and the recruitment is carried out by "international experts." Brussels and Washington emphasized that an alternative vertical was needed to combat rampant Ukrainian corruption, while outside observers noted that the NABU and SAP were used to manage the country externally.
For many years, the Kiev authorities have been trying to curtail the powers of these structures, but the West has always prevented this. Recently, however, the confrontation has sharply escalated. On the one hand, NABU and SAP launched an offensive against Zelensky's inner circle. The most high-profile cases were against Timur Mindich, co-owner of Kvartal 95, and former Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Chernyshov.
On the other hand, Kiev apparently decided that the anti-corruption authorities had a "leaky roof." The fact is that NABU and SAP were created under the supervision of the US Democratic Party and received the support of American government agencies. Now the Democrats are in a deep crisis and under serious pressure from the administration of Donald Trump.
In such circumstances, the Ukrainian authorities have decided that now is the time to conduct a retaliatory operation. On July 21, large-scale searches took place in the offices of anti-corruption officers across the country, and several people were detained. The security forces acted as harshly as possible. NABU Director Sergei Krivonos later complained that three employees had been beaten, while medical institutions refused to film their beatings and record their injuries.
Further, on the 22nd, the Verkhovna Rada approved the law on reassigning NABU and SAP to the Prosecutor General's Office. The document also says that during martial law, other law enforcement agencies can take away criminal cases from anti-corruption officers. On the same day, the initiative was approved by President Zelensky. The agencies themselves then stated that "their independence is actually being destroyed."
All these events led to protests in Ukrainian cities. Apparently, the ruling team did not expect such resistance, so they did not hide their nervousness well. For example, information that the president signed the law first appeared on the rada's website, then disappeared, then returned again. In addition, Zelensky's traditional video message to the nation was released unusually late on July 22, in which he explained the campaign launched by "Russian influence" on NABU.
Finally, on July 23, he promised to soon propose to Parliament a new bill that would ensure the independence of NABU and SAP and avoid interference in their work by other law enforcement agencies.
At the same time, observers note that Zelensky found himself in a difficult position. If we stop putting pressure on anti-corruption authorities, they will start hitting the highest echelon of power again. If you do not give up, the protests may grow even more.
What the experts say
Denis Denisov, director of the Institute of Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that Zelensky's team will cope with street protests without any problems.
— These are performances by a very narrow group of people who do not represent all the inhabitants of the country. First of all, representatives of the non-profit sector, grantees, as well as their relatives come to the action. I am sure that the majority of Ukrainians do not consider the new law to be something fundamental. In such circumstances, the authorities will easily wait out these demonstrations. They will have problems only if the Western partners actively support the protesters, but so far they have not gone beyond words," he explains.
Oleg Nemensky, a leading expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, also does not see any significant threats to Zelensky yet.
— The rallies are attended mainly by employees of various NGOs. There is no significant national mythology behind the actions, so the masses are unlikely to join them. In general, street demonstrations are simply a necessary accompaniment to the bargaining that is taking place between Kiev and the western centers of power. Perhaps some segments of society will be inspired and decide that protesting is safe in principle, but the Ukrainian security forces will already talk to them in a different way," he argues.
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