The economist allowed a reduction in the key rate to 18.5%

Igor Balynin, PhD in Economics, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, said that the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at a meeting on July 25 may decide to reduce the key rate to 19% or 18.5%.

In conversation with aif.ru On Wednesday, July 23, the expert emphasized that the Bank of Russia "has switched to a cycle of monetary policy easing and there are no objective economic prerequisites in favor of an increase." He noted that the scenario of keeping the key rate at 20% is unlikely.

The economist expressed the opinion that scenarios of a rate cut of less than 1 percentage point or more than 2 percentage points are unlikely to be discussed. According to him, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is likely to choose a step of 1 or 1.5 percentage points, which will lead to a reduction in the key rate to 19% or 18.5%. Balinin also did not rule out a reduction to 18%.

Banks have already reacted to a possible reduction in the key rate to 18% by reducing the deposit interest in advance. At the same time, deposits are still a profitable instrument, the expert pointed out. He added that the Central Bank's decision is unlikely to significantly affect exchange rates, as they are affected by other, more significant factors.

Forecast for the year: the market expects another key reduction to 18%

Why can the Central Bank immediately lower the rate by 2 percentage points?

Earlier on July 23, economist Mikhail Belyaev predicted a reduction in the Central Bank's key rate to 18%. According to him, the Central Bank will take into account public opinion and continue to gradually reduce the rate, but it is unlikely to fall below 17%, notes 360.ru . He added that commercial banks are willing to lower interest rates on deposits, and on loans — with great resistance, writes RT.

On the same day, it was reported that before the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, six of the 20 largest banks in Russia lowered deposit rates by 0.2–2 percentage points. The average deposit rate now stands at 17.52% per annum for three months, 16.64% for six months and 15.81% for a year. The calculations were carried out for deposits of 100 thousand rubles without additional conditions, the website writes kp.ru .

As the National News Service reported on July 22, in 2024, the growth rate of deposit rates significantly outpaced the growth of the key rate, but now the opposite situation is observed: the average maximum rate on ruble deposits has dropped to a minimum of 17.91% per annum over the past ten months, falling by 4.37% in six months. At the same time, the Central Bank's key rate decreased by only 1%, from 21% to 20%.

On July 21, Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, announced that the key interest rate in Russia could drop to 15% by the end of this year. At the moment, the rate is 20%, after it was reduced from a record level of 21% in June 2025. Pravda.Ru .

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