Football is back: the main intrigues of the first round of the RPL

The summer break is coming to an end in Russian football. Already today, on July 18, Dynamo Moscow and Kaliningrad Baltika will launch the WORLD of the Russian Premier League 2025/26. Izvestia tells us what to expect from the first games of the new season.

Round 1 of the RPL 2025/26 — schedule

The opening match of the RPL 2025/26 will be held on Friday, July 18, in Moscow. Dynamo will play against Baltika at 20:30.

Three matches will be played on Saturday, July 19. Akron and Krylia Sovetov will take the field at 3:30 p.m., after that, Lokomotiv will host Sochi at 6 p.m., and Spartak and Dynamo Makhachkala will play at 8:30 p.m.

The Sunday program on July 20 at 15:30 will be opened by Paris NN and the reigning champion Krasnodar, Zenit will play Rostov at 18:00, and the match between Akhmat and Rubin will end the game day at 20:30.

On Monday, July 21, the Orenburg football club, which took the place of Torpedo, will host CSKA at 17:30.

Karpin's new Dynamo

Dynamo, led by Valery Karpin, is one of the main contenders for the trophy this season, according to bookmakers. The Blue and White have not won the championship for 49 years and will do their best to close their main gestalt.

During the summer break, the Muscovites have not lost a single friendly match and are approaching their first official meeting in good shape, with four wins and one draw under their belt. Experts note Karpin's active work. The coach of the Russian national team changed the starting scheme of Dynamo, and also improved the pressure settings.

Despite winning the First League last season, Baltika is seen as an outsider. However, Andrey Talalaev's teams traditionally know how to play under pressure and create problems for opponents of any level.

The personal conflict of the head coaches, which unfolded in 2023, adds spice to this confrontation. Then Talalaev accused Nikolai Komlichenko, a football player from Karpinsky Rostov, of unsportsmanlike behavior on the field and constant simulations, in response to which Karpin suggested that his colleague "not open his mouth."

The first derby of the season

Tolyatti Akron is preparing to win the match against Samara Wings. Last season, Zaur Tedeev's team beat Krylyshek twice with a score of 2:0. In addition, in the final table of the season, the RPL debutants also beat their neighbors in the region by one line, which adds to their confidence.

Krylia Sovetov have significantly updated after the last championship draw, having parted with their long-term mentor and favorite of the local public, Igor Osinkin. His place was taken by Magomed Adiev, who will have to rebuild one of the most original teams of recent seasons.

Last chance for Galaktionov's Locomotive

Lokomotiv will host in Cherkizovo another "returnee" from the FNL— the Sochi club, which has never defeated the Railwaymen away in its history.

Robert Moreno's men will take to the field after a major shake-up caused by changes at the club this offseason. New players joined the team recently and hardly had time to integrate as much as possible.

The situation is reversed for Lokomotiv. Mikhail Galaktionov received at his disposal in advance a powerful reinforcement in the person of Nikolai Komlichenko, as well as Zelimkhan Bakayev and Alexander Rudenko. The front line of the team will clearly benefit from this, although the key problem of the "red-greens" last year was precisely defense.

Whether Galaktionov will be able to find a place on the field for all newcomers is an open question. But any result for Lokomotiv outside the top 3 at the end of the season will be perceived as unsatisfactory, which is highly likely to re-actualize the issue of finding another mentor.

The curse of Spartak Makhachkala

Dynamo from Makhachkala confidently broke into the RPL and earned the status of a team that is able to take away points from any competitor. In many ways, this reputation is justified by the history of personal confrontations with Spartak, because last season the Muscovites managed to win only one match out of four.

The Red-and-Whites have hardly changed, Dejan Stankovic's team has signed the experienced Anton Zabolotny and is once again preparing to impose a fight for the championship. Hassan Bidzhiev's team, on the other hand, lost one of their leaders, Egash Kasintura. All the pre—match odds are in favor of Spartak, but Dynamo definitely won't give up without a fight.

Krasnodar title defense

Krasnodar got the most convenient opponent in the first round. The Bulls have certainly beaten Paris NN the last nine out of ten matches. There are no prerequisites for a change in the trend this time either.

Murad Musayev's team has greatly strengthened with foreign players in the offseason and is expecting new additions. In addition, Krasnodar is determined to recoup its defeat in the Super Cup from CSKA and kick-start the season. Paris NN, in turn, remained in the RPL only because of the Khimki disaster and is likely to struggle again only to maintain its residence permit in the elite.

The second century of Zenit

Zenit failed to win another championship and expects to regain its own this year. Sergei Semak's team has traditionally pulled off the most high-profile transfer in the entire league, getting Brazilian Gerson, but it still risks losing Wendel. There are many rumors around the club about the departure of other players, especially Cassiera. But St. Petersburg residents still remain the main favorite to win the championship, according to experts and bookmakers.

Interesting statistics: Zenit last lost in the 1st RPL round back in 2002. Given the extreme concentration and maximum tasks of the St. Petersburg team, Rostov's chances of preventing Semak from taking three points do not seem significant.

Mirlinda Daku Benefit

Rubin managed to retain the second best sniper of the last championship draw (15 goals) by extending the contract with Albanian striker Mirlin Dacu until 2029. Perhaps this success can be compared to a full-fledged transfer, given the increased attention to the player from other clubs. In addition, Kazan fans enjoy a place in the top seven teams of the RPL 2024/25 — expectations for the new season are quite positive.

At the same time, Akhmat has done a great job in the market, having acquired the already mentioned Casintura and Brian Mansilla, as well as an old acquaintance of Mohamed Konate. The club's management obviously does not want a repeat of last year's result, when the Grozny team managed to escape only at the cost of play-off matches and the high-profile resignation of Sergei Tashuev. The new coach of the team, Alexander Storozhuk, will start all over again and will want to score valuable points right away.

CSKA after Nikolic and the fate of Orenburg

The final match of the tour will present an intriguing confrontation, if only because it should not have happened. Nevertheless, Orenburg will try to seize a unique opportunity and gnaw out all the available points during the season.

However, it is unlikely that the team that was preparing to play in the First League will be able to surprise CSKA. Muscovites are the obvious favorite in the pair. Fabio Celestini, the enigmatic coach for the Russian fan, has already proved himself by beating Krasnodar in the Super Cup and is determined to continue his winning streak in the championship.

Who will become the champion of the RPL 2025/26 — forecasts for the season

Experts once again predict the main fight for the championship between Zenit and Krasnodar.

The Opta Sports supercomputer gives the Petersburgers a 39.6% chance of winning. However, CSKA is unexpectedly placed in second place with a 17% chance of final success. Krasnodar ranks in the top three with a 15.5% chance of winning the championship.

Bookmakers are also predicting gold medals for Zenit with a coefficient of 2.10. According to forecasts, the second place with a probability of 5.50 will go to either Krasnodar or Spartak.

Igor Rabiner, a sports columnist for Sport-Express, believes that Zenit remains the No. 1 favorite in the golden race.

— Zenit will be very well turned on by the defeat last season. And that's why it still seems to me that this year they will take revenge and become champions again," he said.

Konstantin Alekseev, the Head of the football department of SE, agrees with him. The expert notes that after a "sensitive blow" without a single trophy last season, Zenit will make every effort to rehabilitate.

— The leader of recent years will certainly want to take revenge with new forces, with new motivation. This is something that they may have dulled after 6 championships," Alekseev said.

Konstantin Alekseev also named the most likely contenders for getting into the top three at the end of the season.

— I would outline it like this: Zenit, Krasnodar, Dynamo. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if CSKA and Spartak are in the top three or even win the championship," he shared.

Igor Rabiner is also confident in Dynamo's chances to impose a struggle on the two leaders.

— Karpin will have a good first season with Dynamo, I'm giving them the bronze medal and the Cup in advance, as I see it now. But it seems to me that they will not swing right away," the observer predicted.

When asked about the chances of other clubs approaching the top three, Rabiner singled out Spartak, but the Red and white failed to strengthen properly.

— As for Spartak, it's still a very weak off-season in terms of recruitment. They took one Zabolotny. And at the moment, this does not mean that Spartak will compete for the championship. And it seems to me that the red-and—white ceiling is the 3-4 final place," the expert concluded.