The Republic is in debt: Macron is looking for money for the war
A Bastille Day parade was held in France. This time it became a demonstration of force and was organized, according to the military governor of Paris, Loic Mizon, as a real military operation. In his speech on the occasion of the country's national holiday, President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to increase military spending "due to the unstable geopolitical situation." Izvestia investigated whether the French economy, which is already going through difficult times, could withstand this.
Twice as much
"In 2027, we will allocate 64 billion euros for our defense, which is twice the budget of the armed forces in 2017," the French president said, giving an annual speech to the military on the eve of the national holiday, Bastille Day.
According to the head of state, an "update" of the law on military programming for 2024-2030 will be presented in the fall. The French leader also added that he refuses to allow "new and historic efforts" in the field of defense to be financed by "debt."
The increase in defense spending in the country is complicated by high public debt and budget deficits. However, according to Macron, the amendments provide for the allocation of an additional 3.5 billion for defense in 2026 and another 3 billion a year later.
In 2023, the country's parliament approved the law on military programming for 2024-2030, which provides for the allocation of €413 billion for military spending. According to the document, Paris annually increases the corresponding costs by €3 billion.
The French president said that now Europeans must ensure their own security, noting that "freedom has never been so threatened since 1945."
"To be free in this world, you must be feared, and to be feared, you must be strong," the French leader said. The Head of State also called nuclear deterrence a guarantee of the country's freedom and a pillar of its security.
Macron believes that Paris needs to "overcome weaknesses" in the defense sector, especially with regard to "ammunition stocks, drone equipment, strengthening air defense and electronic warfare, and increasing space capabilities."
In the early spring of this year, the president had already called for an increase in French defense spending to 3-3.5% of GDP per year. They currently make up about 2%.
The Reuters news agency estimates that the Fifth Republic needs an additional €30 billion a year for this, and France already has one of the largest budget deficits in the European Union. If tougher austerity measures are not introduced, experts are confident that by 2029 the country's public debt will reach more than 120% of GDP.
In an interview with The Financial Times, former Transport Minister Clement Bon said that in order to increase defense funding, a "radical impulse" was needed. According to him, the country's authorities cannot abandon their goals to reduce the budget deficit or raise already "very high" taxes.
Against this background, there were reports from the French Prime Minister that the country will reduce the state budget by 43.8 billion euros in 2026 due to the deficit, as well as the costs of all departments except the Ministry of Defense, will remain at the level of 2025.
Things are not so good
Pavel Timofeev, Head of the Regional Problems and Conflicts Sector at the IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the economic situation for France is not the most favorable.
— Not only does the country already have a standard budget deficit for many years, but in recent years it has been aggravated by such internal political fragmentation, which has tied Macron's hands quite strongly after the last elections. The president's speech is intended primarily to show the French, Donald Trump, that France continues to remain in the cohort of Western countries that are aimed at long—term confrontation with Russia, assistance to Ukraine, and the development of European defense," the political scientist explained.
In his opinion, the main message of the French leader's speech is that France is ready to increase the workload and further projects.
— This is done in order to keep the Americans in Europe, and at the same time to push the European Union to develop military-industrial cooperation. There is a very difficult question — whether there is enough money for this, but it is very important to understand that France is not going to carry this cargo alone, and Macron also stated that the republic expects to act together with its allies," the expert explained.
He added that France would play, if not a leading role, then certainly one of the most prominent roles among the EU and NATO member states aimed at joint confrontation and deterrence of Russia.
— At the same time, how this money will be spent and for what period is also a difficult question. Because, on the one hand, Macron said that this budget is doubling compared to 2017, but it is much smaller than the German budget. It would be good for France if it now reaches the same 2% that the country has been talking about for many years," the expert said.
According to the analyst, there are doubts that economically France will fulfill everything that it promised.
— Macron leaves in 2027, and no one knows what will happen after him. Two years from now, he won't be responsible for anything. There is one more point: before our eyes there is an example of Germany withdrawing defense spending from these budget rules, this story is now being actively discussed in the European Union, when defense spending will probably be considered separately from the main civilian budget, and in this case, of course, it gives sufficient scope to officials," the source believes.
Timofeev added that after the last summit, the countries agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, but then it turned out that this amount was divided into two unequal parts, one of which was used to build infrastructure.
— The same scenario is possible here. In addition, the state may well live in debt when these funds are withdrawn from the population. It seems that Macron promises not to raise taxes, to issue government bonds so that the population buys military loans, and this debt will be paid off gradually. In addition, if necessary, the money will be found and will already be added to some common EU pot," the political scientist is sure.
Following in the footsteps of Napoleon
Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, notes in a conversation with Izvestia that many people call Macron an imitator of Napoleon.
— There is a whole series of reforms connected with him, which he started in France. Due to structural problems in the economy, it needed to be rebuilt. The French have followed the same path as all other countries — raising the retirement age, changing social benefits payments, tying them to certain regulations, positions, depending on how many people have worked, how long they are unemployed, where, in what industry. This is also a migration problem that Macron tried to solve by integrating migrants into precisely those areas where workers are needed," the political scientist explained.
The specialist recalled that Macron had previously expressed his doubts about the adequacy of NATO, the "brain death" of the alliance.
— He believes that France understands better than the leadership of the North Atlantic bloc how NATO needs to develop. In addition, he considers Paris to be the leader of the environmental agenda — it has several projects related to climate change, but each of them faces a lack of funding. In reality, the situation is such that you can rebuild and reconfigure anything, but there are no cheap energy sources from Russia anymore," the analyst believes.
According to Natalia Yeremina, the actions of Paris are only an image effort, not a specific achievement.
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