Half for a quarter: new car sales fell by 26% in six months%

According to the results of the first half of the year, sales of new cars in Russia decreased by a quarter. The first month of summer showed that the market situation is becoming even more difficult. Despite promotions, discounts and special offers, including credit offers offered by automakers, distributors and dealers, the number of customers in car dealerships is not increasing. Experts believe that a radical change in the situation is unlikely to be expected in the second half of the year. Therefore, analysts are already reviewing the previously given forecasts for sales by the end of the year. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Summer peak

According to the results of the first summer month, 90,116 new passenger cars were sold in Russia, which is 27.6% less than in June 2024. Such data is provided by the analytical agency Autostat, based on the number of issued EPTS. This is about 1% lower than the May results, experts say.

Thus, over the past six months, Russians have purchased 530,375 passenger cars, which is 26.3% less than the results for the first six months of last year, analysts say. At the same time, 363 thousand cars (68.3%) sold in the first half of the year are 2024 models, said Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat.

— Almost 23 thousand more pieces (4.3%) are generally "stale goods" — 2023 year of manufacture. Dealers are currently offering maximum discounts on them," he noted.

According to his calculations, there are currently just over 200 thousand "last year's" cars in the warehouses of dealers and distributors. At the current sales rate, they will last until the end of the year, he believes.

Against the background of an impressive number of stock cars, import volumes are seriously decreasing. So, in June, according to Autostat, only about 26 thousand new cars were imported into the Russian Federation, which is 63% lower than in the first month of last summer.

New faces

By the end of June, the Lada brand still dominates the market, accounting for about 27% of cars sold (24,165). The leadership among foreign cars is occupied by the Chinese Haval — 9172 cars. Chery is on the third line (8,858), followed by Changan (6,388), which for the first time surpassed Geely (6,165), which took fifth place. The Belarusian Belgee ranks sixth with 4,074 cars. This is followed by Jetour (3,138), St. Petersburg Solaris (2,201), as well as Chinese Omoda and GAC (1,974 and 1,845, respectively), and the latter was among the top ten most popular models for the first time in June.

In June, Kaiyi and Xcite were in the top 15 for the first time (they share 12th and 13th places with results of 1.3 thousand cars sold).

According to the results of June, Granta is still the leader in the "personal standings" - 11,521 cars sold, which is 28% less than a year ago. Sales of Lada Vesta "sank" even more, immediately by 49.3%. Nevertheless, this model remained on the second line with a result of 5,871 cars sold. The bronze medal for the Haval Jolion crossover is 3,606 cars (-48.4%). This is followed by Changan UNI-S / CS55 Plus (3,023, -23.2%). The Belgee X50 closes the top 5 (2,713, -16.3%). The sixth position belongs to Chery Tiggo 4 (2,472), followed by Geely Monjaro (2,438) and Niva Legend (2,416). Largus has the ninth position (2,131), Niva Travel is on the tenth line with a result of 2,105 cars sold.

It is noteworthy that Chery Tiggo 7, which had been in 4-6 places for a long time, flew out of the June Top 10. Presumably, this is due to the imminent start of sales of crossovers of the new Tenet brand, built on the basis of the Chery seven.

The results of the half-year are not significantly different in structure from the results of June. The Lada brand is in the lead by a large margin, with models selling 155.5 thousand units in six months. The Haval brand ended the half-year with a result of 63.9 thousand cars sold. 55.3 thousand Russians became owners of the Chery model in six months. Geely cars have been purchased by 35.6 thousand customers since the beginning of the year, while Changan models have been purchased by 29.9 thousand. Over the past six months, 17.8 thousand Russians have taken a liking to Belarusian cars. Jetuor crossovers were bought 15.7 thousand times. Omoda dealers sold 13.3 thousand cars, Solaris and GAC sold 10.4 thousand and 7.4 thousand respectively in the first half of the year.

Abnormal June

Car sales in the first month of summer have always shown a noticeably better result compared to May: This is due to the long days off, during which potential buyers go to the country or on vacation, says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine. This year, the June sales turned out to be even slightly worse than the May ones, he stressed.

"This indicates an extremely difficult situation in the new car market, which, unfortunately, is only getting more complicated," the expert states.

June did not meet the expectations of dealers either. According to Renat Tyukteev, Deputy General Director for New Car Sales at Avilon AG, the results of last month "turned out to be unimpressive even against the background of May."

— We expected better results, but the market is not showing growth. There are currently no drivers for development: the key rate remains high, and there have been no global changes. All incentive programs are working, and discounts have reached their maximum. The flows of importers and dealers are decreasing. According to our estimates, dealers have "dried up" by an average of 15% in six months," he told Izvestia.

According to Renat Tyukteev, July will not bring any special surprises either. Strong growth is also not expected this month, the market may reach the level of 93-95 thousand cars sold, he believes.

There is a paradoxical situation on the market right now, says Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of Autostat. According to him, the current terms of purchase, taking into account discounts, promotions, and special offers, are in fact even more profitable than those that were last year.

— Automakers, distributors and dealers are making very interesting offers. This includes subsidizing loan rates, resulting in a real overpayment of an acceptable 13-15% per annum. But even so, there is still no traffic in the salons," said Sergey Udalov.

Downward movement

The main reason for the current situation in the car market lies in the plane of macroeconomics, says Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto. The continued high key rate of the Central Bank makes car loans expensive, which, combined with high inflation, significantly reduces the purchasing power of the population and makes a new car inaccessible to many, she explains.

— The structural restructuring of the market after the departure of Western brands also played a negative role. New players, mainly Chinese, have not been able to fully replace the lost volumes at comparable prices, which has led to a significant increase in average car prices (by 30-50% or more in recent years). This caused a real price shock among consumers," Irina Frank told Izvestia.

In her opinion, the market will continue to show negative dynamics in the second half of the year, but the rate of decline is likely to slow down to 15-20% compared to last year. Maxim Kadakov shares a similar opinion. He suggests that starting in the fall, the sales decline curve "may reach a plateau."

Roman Tyukteev believes that reducing the key interest rate by 4-5% may be a significant incentive for sales. In this case, the activation of pent-up demand and the transfer of part of the population's funds from deposits to the car market could significantly improve the situation, he believes. A key rate of 15-16% could indeed significantly revive demand for new cars, agrees Igor Morzharetto, partner at Autostat. However, a decrease in the "key" to these indicators in the foreseeable future is unlikely, he believes.

Sad predictions

The results of new car sales for the first half of the year force experts to adjust their forecasts. For example, the baseline scenario prepared by Autostat analysts shows a figure of 1.25 million cars sold by the end of 2025. The optimistic scenario implies an indicator of 1.4 million cars, the pessimistic one — 1.1 million units.

— Taking into account the current situation, expected prospects and trends, the result of 1.2 million new cars sold is the "ceiling" this year, Maxim Kadakov predicts.

Avilon considers the range of 1.2–1.3 million new cars to be an optimistic sales level.

At the beginning of this year, estimates of 1.4-1.5 million cars sold by the end of this year also appeared in the forecasts of a number of experts. At the same time, in 2024, Russians purchased 1.57 million cars.