The expert allowed a reduction in the key rate to 15-16% by the end of the year.

The key rate of the Central Bank of Russia may drop to 15-16% by December 2025. On July 4, the Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at Dom Bank told Izvestia.Russian Federation" by Zhanna Smirnova.

"If the pro-inflationary risks increase, the Bank of Russia may leave the rate unchanged at 18% after the rate cut in July. If inflation continues to decrease, the key rate may be further reduced, and by the end of the year it may reach 15-16%," she explained.

According to the expert, both scenarios are likely in the current conditions. Smirnova added that additional inflationary risks may arise in the fall. Among them are possible problems with the harvest, a potential weakening of the ruble and continued rigidity in the labor market. At the next meeting of the Central Bank, she said, the key rate is expected to decrease by two percentage points.

"The dynamics of inflation is developing favorably and remains below the forecasted values. Currently, the seasonal inflation rate is about 3-4%. This situation creates the conditions for a more significant reduction in the rate," Smirnova concluded.

The obvious is incredible: what will be the Central Bank's key rate by the end of 2025

Experts named possible scenarios

The head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, said yesterday that the Bank of Russia would consider lowering the key rate in July unless "unforeseen circumstances" appeared. She stressed that the Central Bank sees a slowdown in inflation, "and in a stable component" and "faster than expected in the previous forecast."