The United States has suspended arms supplies to Ukraine. What does it mean
The White House announced the suspension of supplies of certain types of weapons to Ukraine due to the need to maintain a sufficient supply of ammunition. The United States will not transfer missiles for Patriot air defense systems, which will be the most problematic for Kiev, as it will be impossible to compensate for their loss. What the decision of the American side will lead to is in the Izvestia article.
What weapons have the United States stopped supplying
• The reduction in the supply of American weapons first became known from media reports. A number of publications reported that the Pentagon is delaying an impressive package of ammunition, which includes dozens of interceptors for Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, thousands of 155 mm artillery shells, more than 100 Hellfire and AIM missiles for F-16 fighter jets, more than 250 GMLRS precision missile systems, dozens of missiles for the man-portable anti-aircraft missile system Stinger, as well as grenade launchers.
• This information was soon confirmed by the US administration. White House Deputy press Secretary Anna Kelly said that the Department of Defense conducted an audit of military aid to the allies and, as a result, decided to reduce supplies in order to "put America's interests first." The Pentagon also noted that although the agency continues to provide military assistance to Ukraine, it also takes into account US military priorities.
• For Ukraine, the US decision to suspend military aid came as a surprise. The government of the country summoned the Charge d'affaires of the United States to its Foreign Ministry, and the Ministry of Defense requested a telephone conversation with American colleagues. Kiev notes that for the time being, arms supplies are continuing, but disruptions may begin in the near future.
Why did the US stop the shipments
• One of the reasons may be the desire of the United States to put pressure on the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, in order to get some concessions from him. Washington has repeatedly made it clear that it expects the Ukrainian leadership to hold elections in order to increase the legitimacy of local authorities. The United States emphasizes that its allies should adhere to the democratic principles of the succession of power, and therefore the refusal to hold elections for the president and deputies of the Verkhovna Rada becomes an obstacle to fulfilling American obligations.
• In this regard, it cannot be ruled out that the decision taken is populist and can be quickly reviewed by the US administration. In February, Ukraine was already going through a supply pause that lasted about a week, which was caused by a scandalous quarrel between Zelensky and US President Donald Trump at the White House. Now their relations are quite smooth, and the leadership of Ukraine did not give a formal reason for pressure. Experts do not rule out that Trump, who has not yet commented on the Pentagon's decision, will order a different course of action regarding American stocks.
• Another reason for the suspension of supplies may be pressure on Europe. The United States wants to transfer obligations on the supply of weapons to Ukraine to it and is looking for various ways to achieve this. At the recent NATO summit, it was announced that the US allies would increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. At the same time, direct military spending will amount to only 3.5% of GDP, and some countries, such as Spain, have declared their unwillingness to follow this plan.
• It cannot be ruled out that Ukraine could simply exhaust the limits that the United States set during the last administration of Joe Biden. He promised to support Kiev to the extent necessary. The Trump administration may have a different opinion about exactly how much Ukraine needs to fight. The audit conducted by the Pentagon could show that the American military industry no longer provides the necessary level of supplies, and therefore the volume leaving the country must be reduced.
The depletion of its own reserves, according to the Pentagon, may also be related to the recent conflict between Israel and Iran. Washington might need to supply a significant number of weapons, primarily Patriot missiles, to protect Tel Aviv from Tehran's air attacks. Now the United States needs to compensate for the losses, given the need to have sufficient reserves for its own protection. The Pentagon did not interrupt commercial supplies to countries that may not need ammunition right now.
The need to have an adequate supply of missiles and projectiles for oneself is not a simple whim of the United States. Washington keeps in mind a possible conflict with China. Even if it does not come to a direct confrontation between these powers, the United States will support Taiwan in the event of Beijing's attempt to regain the island. In this case, the Pentagon's arsenals should be filled with sufficient ammunition.
How will the US actions affect Ukraine
• By itself, a pause in supplies does not mean the cessation of hostilities and the collapse of the front for Ukraine. European countries continue to supply certain types of ammunition, including 155-millimeter artillery shells. This spring, Europe surpassed the United States in terms of the cost of supplied weapons and equipment, becoming, in fact, a new donor to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
• If the Europeans manage to quickly recover their losses, including through direct purchases of shells from the United States, Ukraine will face only the loss of several settlements or small territories within two to three weeks, but the overall combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will remain. Further delay will have a more significant impact, up to the complete exhaustion of weapons stocks, but this scenario is still too unlikely.
• The most sensitive issue for Ukraine will be the termination of missile supplies for Patriot. These are expensive shells that are produced in relatively small quantities. At the same time, there is a huge demand for them all over the world. Patriot complexes became the basis of the Ukrainian air defense, their transfer by the American side was presented by Kiev as a turning point. Now military facilities in Ukraine will become more vulnerable, as other existing air defense systems will not be able to fully replace Patriot. Moreover, missiles for the French-Italian SAMP-T complexes have not been received for several months.
• Due to the shortage of classical air defense systems, Ukraine will try to increase the production of interceptor drones. They are already being used to eliminate reconnaissance drones and some types of attack UAVs. Drones will not be able to repel a missile attack in any way, but they can be quite effective against similar devices. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces establish the production of interceptors, they will be able to free up the capacity of foreign air defense systems and focus them on intercepting missiles. However, building a full-fledged unmanned air defense system requires time, financial resources and technological capabilities.
• At the same time, the United States does not refuse to provide intelligence data obtained from satellites and other sources. This information has no less importance on the state of affairs at the front than stocks of specific shells, which makes it possible to save ammunition without compromising combat missions. The loss of American intelligence data would be much more painful for Ukraine.
When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:
- political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko;
- military expert, director of the Museum of Air Defense Yuri Knutov;
- military expert Vasily Dandinkin.
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