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Experts expect global GDP to slow down in 2025 amid trade wars

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By July 9, the «respite» for the countries in respect of which the American leader Donald Trump imposed duties will end. In particular, we are talking about the states of the European Union. However, experts interviewed by Izvestia expect that due to a new round of trade wars, global GDP growth may slow to 1.7% instead of the 2.7% projected at the beginning of the year.

The American economy is currently solving one of the key problems — reducing the trade deficit, said Arina Surkova, an expert at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics. According to her, there are two scenarios in this case: to limit imports by increasing customs duties and to attract industrial production to the country by offering corporations investment incentives.

According to the IMF, global GDP increased by 3.2% in 2024. However, now he is under pressure from several political and economic factors at once, in particular, trade wars. Analysts are confident that Trump will not abandon his idea to protect the domestic market by imposing import duties. But much will depend on their scale.

"However, if new deadlines are set or countries manage to conclude reasonable agreements on tariff levels, the global economy will gradually adapt to them," said Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam.

In the short term, the duties will create a supply shock for the United States, meaning imports will rise in price. And for countries that are subject to restrictions, there will be a demand shock, as their export orders will decrease, Arina Surkova believes.

Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:

The sense of duty: how will the US trade truce with EU countries end

Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»

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