The expert predicted the ruble exchange rate for July

In July, the dollar-ruble exchange rate is likely to remain in the range of 78-80 rubles per dollar with moderate volatility, Ruslan Pichugin, an independent expert in the field of private investment, told Izvestia on July 1.

"The effect of tight monetary policy remains: the Central Bank's key rate is 20%, and deposit rates in the top 10 banks reach 17.3-18.5% per annum. This supports ruble assets and restrains demand for the currency," he said.

According to him, a rate cut of 1-2 percentage points is possible in July, but its consequences will manifest themselves later.

"The effect of the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters, established by Decree No. 771, still remains. Although the currency transfer rate was reduced from 80% to 60%, and then to 40%, the sale of currency by exporters continues to be a significant source of supply," the expert said.

According to the expert, another factor is oil prices. Urals is trading above $56 per barrel, and oil and gas revenues account for up to 60% of exports, which supports the ruble. However, rising imports and seasonal demand for foreign currency may put pressure on.

"Under current conditions, the ruble is likely to stay below 80 rubles per dollar, but its potential for further strengthening is limited," Pichugin summed up.

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On June 5, Maxim Chirkov, associate professor of the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurements at GUU, said that the US rejection of the debt ceiling could lead to a sharp weakening of the dollar and an increase in inflation. This decision will only accelerate the build-up of the national debt, which will eventually provoke a devaluation of the US currency.