How a vote of no confidence will change Ursula von der Leyen's position. Analysis
In July, the European Parliament will vote on a vote of no confidence in the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, because of her involvement in the corruption scandal during the pandemic. The approval of the vote will require the support of the absolute majority in the European Parliament, which so far sides with the official, but a split is already underway. Whether the procedure will be able to shake von der Leyen's position is discussed in Izvestia.
The essence of the charge
• The vote of no confidence in Ursula von der Leyen was supported due to the Pfizergate scandal related to the purchase of vaccines during the pandemic (we wrote more about this here). The essence of the charge is that during the COVID-19 pandemic, von der Leyen negotiated with the American pharmaceutical company Pfizer for the purchase of millions of doses of the vaccine — the total value of the contracts reached about € 35 billion. The European Court of Justice ruled that the European Commission violated the principles of administrative transparency.
• The supporters of the beginning of the process of a vote of no confidence were mainly deputies of conservative factions. They believe that von der Leyen ignores parliamentary oversight, makes key decisions without proper discussion, and undermines the role of the EU's only directly elected legislative body.
In accordance with EU rules, it is enough to collect signatures of 72 deputies to begin consideration of the vote. The 74 signatures received ensured the formal launch of the procedure, although two thirds of the votes of those present must be received to pass the vote. At the moment, the EP has 720 deputies. The ruling coalition has 399 mandates, the Greens have 53, and the opposition has 267.
• The European People's Party, to which the head of the EC belongs, and the Greens will not support the initiative, but the vote procedure itself will draw attention to the problems of transparency of the EU bureaucratic system. The plenary debate and voting are expected to take place in July. Pressure and media attention to the discussion of the vote may prompt her to make political concessions, although it is unlikely that the vote will be adopted.
The future of Ursula von der Leyen
• The EC President relies on the support of the majority in the European Parliament, so her position is strong. At the current stage, most MPs remain politically loyal to von der Leyen, seeing her as a figure capable of ensuring stability.
• The format of the work of the EU authorities presupposes collective responsibility. For example, decisions such as the purchase of vaccines are made not only by the head of the EC, but by specialized structures. Even if Ursula von der Leyen conducted personal correspondence with representatives of pharmaceutical companies, the process of concluding contracts is officially assigned to collegial bodies. As a result, this creates legal protection against direct charges.
• Additional protection is provided by the diplomatic immunity of the head of the EC. This status limits the possibilities for prosecution in national and international courts. Even if controversial circumstances are discovered, a thorough investigation will be required. However, it is extremely difficult to obtain evidence in conditions of institutional secrecy.
• In the context of ongoing geopolitical challenges and instability on the external borders of the European Union, institutional sustainability is becoming a priority for some member States. A change of the head of the EC at such a moment can lead to unpredictable consequences. Therefore, despite the resonance of the vaccine scandal, Ursula von der Leyen, having secured a majority in the European Parliament and the support of the liberal establishment, will retain her post.
Consequences of the vote
• A vote of no confidence is a mechanism stipulated by the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which allows the European Parliament to express official distrust of the entire European Commission, including its president. If such a vote is successful, all EC members are required to resign collectively, including the head, regardless of whether their personal activities have been criticized or not. Such an initiative can become a catalyst for significant changes at the highest levels of European governance.
• The EC has already faced this procedure five times, but as a result, no votes of no confidence have ever been passed. The submission of an initiative for a vote of no confidence in itself already signals deep disagreements between some of the MEPs and the EU executive. Even if the vote does not lead to her resignation, its very holding may weaken Ursula von der Leyen's political position. Such a process would reduce its legitimacy in the eyes of individual Member States and reduce its ability to effectively implement the agenda for the remainder of its mandate. This may lead to a delay in the adoption of key initiatives, an increase in internal political tensions, as well as increased pressure from individual parliamentary groups.
• The launch of a vote of no confidence procedure can intensify national discussions within member states about the future role of the EU and strengthen the positions of Eurosceptics. Against the background of the vote, an idea of the instability of the European Union may form, which, in turn, may affect economic expectations, investor confidence, and even the dynamics of the euro.
• At the internal political level of the European Parliament, such a step could change the configuration of parliamentary alliances and disrupt existing informal agreements between the main political groups.
When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:
- political scientist Georgy Zabarinsky;
- political scientist Vadim Trukhachev;
- political scientist Stanislav Tarasov;
- political scientist Dmitry Brije;
- political scientist Vladimir Shapovalov.
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