Disagreements are growing within the European Union over Ukraine. Analysis

The European Union has failed to adopt a joint statement in support of Ukraine's accession to the EU. At the same time, the EU failed to approve the 18th package of anti-Russian sanctions, which Slovakia and Hungary opposed. What contradictions prevent European countries from reaching an agreement is in the Izvestia article.

Ukraine's support is falling

• Due to Hungary's resistance, the European Union summit was unable to adopt a final statement on Ukraine, one of the points of which stated support for the start of negotiations on the country's admission to the EU. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban explained that Kiev's admission to the union is impossible while the conflict continues. At the same time, he accused the EU of leading Ukrainians by the nose, promising what it cannot fulfill.

• Recently, Western politicians have been less determined on the issue of long-term support for Ukraine. First of all, this is due to the fatigue of society and political elites from the protracted conflict. At an early stage, the EU rallied around the idea of protecting Ukraine's sovereignty and actively supported sanctions pressure on Russia. However, as the conflict drags on, enthusiasm decreases. Politicians are beginning to face increasing pressure from within their countries. The population is increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with the consequences of sanctions and massive financial assistance to Kiev, namely rising energy prices, inflation, migration pressure and a sense of instability.

• As a result, European politicians began to point out the double standards of the union when assessing international conflicts. For example, Germany and Spain note that the conflict in Ukraine is regarded as Russian aggression. However, the European Union called the attack by Israel and the United States on Iran self-defense, although in both cases there was a preventive defense of their interests.

Exchange code: how far have the Russian Federation and Ukraine progressed in the implementation of the agreements

And how will the next humanitarian step affect the course of the peace process?

• Right-wing parties and eurosceptics are also gaining strength in a number of European countries, in particular, Germany and Romania. They use the issue of support for Ukraine as an instrument of internal political struggle. Politicians criticize financial injections into a foreign conflict, because these funds could be directed to the needs of their own citizens. In Slovakia and Hungary, such positions have become part of the official foreign policy course.

• At the same time, against the background of the prolonged crisis, traditional disagreements between EU countries with varying degrees of dependence on Russian energy resources began to manifest themselves again. This also reduces the effectiveness of decision-making at the pan-European level and slows down initiatives to further increase support for Ukraine.

• In addition, the weakening of attention to Ukraine is influenced by the growth of other international challenges. The increased confrontation between the United States and China, instability in the Middle East, as well as the ongoing migration crisis are attracting the attention of European countries. With limited financial resources, priorities are starting to shift. As a result, Ukraine increasingly finds itself on the periphery of the political agenda.

• Finally, the EU has no certainty about Ukraine's strategy and prospects. The lack of any progress on the front in its favor and difficulties with anti-corruption reforms raise doubts in Western countries about the effectiveness of the resources invested. The question arises as to how well the assistance provided corresponds to the prospects of achieving the stated goals.

They think destructively: Europe and Ukraine are disrupting Trump's new plan

Why didn't the London high-level settlement meeting take place

Relations with Russia

• The inconsistency of the positions of European countries is also observed in relation to Russia. The prepared 18th package of EU anti-Russian sanctions was supposed to impose restrictions against the Russian Nord Stream gas pipeline, banks and the military industry of the Russian Federation. The European Commission also proposed lowering the ceiling on Russian oil prices from $60 to $45 per barrel. However, the package was not accepted due to the disagreement of Slovakia and Hungary, which blocked it.

• Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico explained that the lack of Russian energy supplies would be a disaster due to the sharp rise in prices. Also, if Bratislava stops buying Russian gas, it faces a lawsuit from Gazprom for about €20 billion, with which an agreement has been concluded until 2034.

Budapest is also actively developing energy cooperation with Moscow and does not want to lose it. In addition, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban often appeals to national interests and sovereignty in making foreign policy decisions. At the same time, concern is growing in the European Union as a whole, and not just in Hungary and Slovakia, about the possible economic costs of new sanctions that could hit the already battered domestic market of Central European countries.

• Nevertheless, the EU still has mechanisms for influencing and circumventing the bloc by individual members. The European Commission knew that if the package was put forward as a standard sanction, it would not pass, because the sanction required unanimous approval. However, the EC may develop a legislative act that will require not unanimity, but a qualified majority.

"Ukraine needs peace the most, otherwise it will be destroyed"

Professor Jeffrey Sachs — on the ceasefire in the CBO zone, the Russian-American dialogue and Europe's attitude to the conflict

A series of failures

• Western countries are increasingly facing difficulties in agreeing on solutions. In particular, in the NATO format, countries assess the main international threats differently: for example, the United States has focused all its attention on the Middle East, while European countries are more concerned about the conflict in Ukraine. In addition, Washington, led by President Donald Trump, wants greater equity in the financing of the alliance (we wrote more about this here). There are similar disagreements in the G7 format, which led to the failure of the meeting in Canada (we discussed the reasons here).

• The European Union is a complex structure. Each member State has the right to veto key decisions in the field of foreign policy, which requires absolute consensus on key issues. However, it becomes more difficult to achieve it in conditions when Member States are under pressure from internal political forces seeking to protect national economies.

When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:

• Alexey Martynov, a political scientist and director of the International Institute of Modern States;
• Natalia Eliseeva, a political scientist, political strategist and publicist
• political scientist Denis Denisov;
• political scientist Alexei Mukhin.