The economist has allowed a cyclical reduction in the key rate by the end of the year

The Central Bank (CB) has taken the line to reduce the key interest rate (KC). However, its threshold will depend on the level of inflation — if it increases, the regulator may stop the process of lowering the CS or raise it altogether. Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia on June 27.

"So far, weekly inflation according to Rosstat is in a normal downward trend. Therefore, it is likely that the rate will be reduced by 100 basis points, that is, the rate will go towards 19% — this is my estimated forecast. It is possible that the rate will decrease cyclically. But if inflation goes up, then this trend may be interrupted," the expert explained.

However, according to Ostapkovich, the rate cut will not affect the ruble exchange rate in any way. He explained that when the rate is at 12-13%, then the situation may affect the ruble. This is due to the fact that the average economic profitability in Russia is about 12%.

"Therefore, 19-21% is not of fundamental importance for the economy, but it has a positive signal that the process of reduction has begun, so that enterprises are preparing for investments. That is, the trend has gone towards an obvious improvement in the key rate," the economist noted.

However, Ostapkovich warned that in the next six months it is better not to take out loans and postpone the purchase of expensive goods. In addition, according to him, bank deposits currently significantly exceed inflation, so they remain profitable.

"If the planned rate is 7.5%, then the rate is 18-19% and even 16% higher than inflation, so the deposit is working quite normally now," the specialist concluded.

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On June 25, Candidate of Economic Sciences Mikhail Khachaturian told Izvestia about the impact of the Constitutional Court on the ruble. According to him, the national currency demonstrates resilience to external factors, including fluctuations in oil prices amid the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel.