Control purchase: BRICS countries' domestic trade reached $1 trillion
Trade between the BRICS countries has reached $1 trillion, Kirill Dmitriev, special representative of the President of the Russian Federation for economic cooperation with foreign countries, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, said in his Telegram channel. What areas of development are the priority of the association and what difficulties need to be overcome by the participating states - in the material of Izvestia.
Trade prospects
Taking into account the economic dynamics of the BRICS countries and the forecasts of leading international organizations, we can expect the positive trend to continue, Veronika Popova, senior researcher at the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade, told Izvestia. According to World Bank estimates, the combined share of the GDP of the countries of the association in 2023 amounted to more than 20% of the global volume, and according to PPP — over 30%. At the same time, China accounted for about 70% of the total BRICS GDP, India — over 10%, Russia — 8%, Brazil — 7%, South Africa — about 2%.
— According to forecasts, the growth in the coming years will be primarily provided by China, India, Brazil and Russia. Given the intensification of trade relations and the expansion of investment cooperation, achieving domestic trade in the range of $1.2–1.3 trillion in 2025 seems realistic, the expert believes.
An additional growth factor, in her opinion, will be interest in the technological and innovative sectors, which is reflected in stock market forecasts: it is expected that by 2026 the market capitalization of the BRICS countries may reach $24.5 trillion.
The potential of unification
More than 40% of the world's population lives in the BRICS countries, the head of the Popular Front reminded Izvestia. Analytics" by Olga Pozdnyakova. This is a huge and very diverse market.
— It is obvious that there is a huge potential for the development of trade and cooperation in almost all directions. The priority now is trade in agricultural products, extraction and processing of natural resources, and the development of electronic commerce. At the same time, the objective obstacles to large—scale growth are still insufficient infrastructure development for sea and land cargo delivery, different standardization systems for goods, as well as differences in customs requirements and regulations," she said.
But, according to her, serious work is already underway in these areas, and there are results that are visible in the figures for the increase in trade in goods and services: international transport corridors are developing, standards are gradually being unified, and support for supply chains is being strengthened.
— A striking example is the creation of the BRICS grain exchange. Our countries account for almost half of global grain production and consumption, so the formation of their own independent price indicators looks more than logical and correct. The Russian president instructed the study of this issue last year.
It is important that, in addition to resources, trade in the field of mechanical engineering and the aviation industry is also increasing," the expert noted.
In 2000-2023, the BRICS share in global exports increased from 10% to 23%, and in 2026, the BRICS' weight in international exchange is expected to surpass that of the G7, Evgeny Smirnov, head of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations at the State University of Management, told Izvestia.
— At the same time, the BRICS share in global high-tech exports increased from 5% to 32.8% in 2000-2022. However, trade within the BRICS is unbalanced, and the overall numbers mask China's growing leadership.: China's contribution to BRICS exports increased from 36.1% to 62.5% in 2000-2023. Therefore, the policy of this association should be aimed at strengthening the positions of other countries in trade and investment within the framework of the association," he stressed.
Main directions
Currently, energy resources account for almost 28% of the BRICS countries' trade with each other, which is about $134 billion, Arina Surkova, an expert at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics, told Izvestia. In second place is such an important food commodity as soybeans with a volume of $32 billion. This structure reflects the most important economic interests and areas of BRICS cooperation: ensuring energy and food security.
Each BRICS presidency traditionally highlights one or two topics that find consensus among the participants and have the potential to deepen cooperation, Veronika Popova said. In 2024, during the Russian presidency, the focus was on the task of gradually integrating new partners into the activities of the association. This process was accompanied by the granting of partner status to countries such as Algeria, Belarus, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cuba, Malaysia, and others.
— On January 1, 2025, Brazil assumed the presidency. During this period, issues of the climate agenda, sustainable development, and regulation of artificial intelligence technologies become priorities. The growing attention to climate is due not only to Brazil's participation in the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also to the fact that the BRICS countries account for a significant share of global greenhouse gas emissions, she said.
According to her, the topic of AI is being put forward as a promising area for coordinating efforts: in the absence of global standards, Brazil intends to initiate a discussion of approaches to its regulation. In addition, such areas as the expansion of the use of national currencies in mutual trade, the reform of the global governance system and the discussion of prospects for further expansion of the association remain on the agenda.
The main difficulties
The BRICS countries face a number of complex challenges, Veronika Popova believes. On the political plane, this is the lack of a fixed institutional structure, differences in strategic priorities and ideological differences. Economic difficulties include differences in the level of development, educational and language barriers, as well as high costs associated with geographical remoteness and limited transport infrastructure.
— The financial and currency segment is facing the lack of its own multilateral settlement and payment system. Technically, the problems associated with the modernization of logistics and the lack of coordination in sectors such as agriculture and innovation remain significant," she said.
In addition, the global economic landscape is becoming increasingly unpredictable and complex: geopolitical conflicts are not abating, trade protectionism is only increasing at the instigation of the United States, and the implementation of the global climate agenda has stalled, said Evgeny Smirnov. In these circumstances, BRICS needs to demonstrate that it is the center capable of taking on the solution of a whole range of listed global problems. In addition, an important area of BRICS work should be its further participation in the reform of international economic organizations — the WTO, the IMF, and the World Bank Group.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Energy, but no response had been received at the time of publication.
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