The rates are lower — the benefits are greater: will Russians carry money to banks
Rates on deposits of individuals in Russian banks continue to decrease. In the first decade of June 2025, the average maximum rate in the top 10 banks of the Russian Federation dropped below 19% per annum. Compared to the peak reached at the end of last December, the decrease was 2.5 percentage points. However, inflation has slowed down much more seriously, and the real rate is now even higher than at the beginning of the year, reaching 13%. Is it worth waiting for a new rapid growth in deposits of Russian private depositors and when they will start withdrawing their funds from banks — in the Izvestia article.
Inflation is weaker than rates
The average maximum rate, according to the Central Bank, has been declining steadily for the 15th decade in a row. At the same time, in early June, it immediately decreased by half a percentage point to 18.87%. In general, 85% of the top twenty banks have reduced deposit yields following the Central Bank's reduction in the key rate from 21% to 20%. It is characteristic that short-term deposits provide much higher returns compared to medium-term ones.
At the same time, inflation is declining at a faster pace. Seasonally adjusted annualized inflation (SAAR) slowed by two percentage points in May to 4.5%. In some sectors, there is even a real deflation. Until recently, SAAR's price growth rates exceeded 10%, as well as inflation rates compared to the same period of the previous year. Thus, while at the peak at the beginning of the year, real deposit rates (nominal rate minus inflation) were about 12-13%, now they exceed 14%. There has never been such an indicator in the recent history of Russia. It should be understood that for depositors, a positive real rate of even 2% is considered very good.
In recent years, prohibitively high deposit rates have caused a massive infusion of funds into banks. Over the past three years, the volume of deposits from individuals has doubled, and last year it increased by almost a third. Moreover, it is worth noting that we are talking only about term deposits, whereas there are also various savings accounts that also offer fairly high interest rates, while maintaining the ability to withdraw funds. Taxes on bank deposits began to bring hundreds of billions of rubles to the budget annually — these revenues were so great.
Rate cuts will continue
However, the growth of term deposits has slowed significantly in recent months. In the first quarter of 2025, it was only 0.6%. However, following a very modest reduction in the key rate and a rapid drop in inflation, trends may reverse again. Will the Russians run away to put all their available funds back into the account?
As Yuri Belikov, managing director of the Expert RA rating agency, notes, deposits have a certain urgency, whereas the decline in inflation, in fact, has only just begun and is still unstable.
— Speaking at least about the medium term, it is impossible to draw reliable conclusions that the real profitability of deposits is growing. And this is not to mention the fact that the reduction in deposit rates will continue in accordance with the launched cycle of easing the PREP. It will be long—lasting and sustainable, and it will surely overtake the decline in inflation, which will inevitably slow down," he stated.
The expert concluded that for the reasons described, there will be no new wave of withdrawal of funds for deposits.
— Besides, she doesn't really have anything to form out of. For example, the outflow of retail investments from stock instruments into deposits has already occurred. The increase in funds on deposit accounts will be due to new income and their indexation, but the growth rate will be much lower than in previous years, — says Yuri Belikov.
The real rate can be assessed in different ways - not only as the difference between the deposit rate and current inflation, but also as the difference to the inflation expectations of the population or the inflation observed by the population, says Anton Fufachev, senior analyst at Gazprombank's CEP.
— The latter approach may be more relevant from the point of view of making decisions about savings by the population. Despite the decrease in inflation, both of these indicators have not shown significant downward dynamics in recent months. At the same time, deposit rates began to decrease. Therefore, the real rate applied to them even decreased slightly, to 6% in the first case and 4% in the second. But these are still historically high levels that stimulate the savings activity of the population," the source told Izvestia.
According to Igor Dodonov, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, when deciding whether to place funds on deposits, people are still more focused on nominal rates, which have been decreasing almost continuously since the end of last year. Moreover, the downward trend in deposit rates should continue in the coming months on expectations of further easing of monetary policy in the country.
— At the same time, this process is likely to proceed gradually, and deposit rates will remain at an elevated level for quite a long time, covering at least official inflation with a margin. Taking into account the shortage of reliable and understandable alternative options for saving money for most citizens, I think the influx of money into bank deposits will continue, albeit at a slower pace," the expert predicts.
The "canopy" will be removed gradually
Thus, it is unlikely that citizens will flood banks with money overnight. At the same time, a huge amount has accumulated on deposits, which at some point may go back into the economy if monetary policy is eased. Some experts believe that there is a problem of a "deposit canopy" that threatens to arrange a "second edition" of galloping inflation in this case. The analysts interviewed by Izvestia generally disagree with this and do not believe that there are any reasons for panic.
According to Belikov, the "deposit canopy problem" is an artificial category invented by the same economists who believe that the acceleration of inflation comes from the good life of consumers.
The problem with the "overhang" of deposits is somewhat exaggerated, Dodonov believes.
— Given that the key and deposit rates are likely to decrease quite slowly, the savings model of citizens' behavior, I think, will continue to prevail for a long time. And I would not expect any significant outflow of money from deposits into the consumer market with corresponding consequences for inflation. In addition, according to the DIA, most of the funds on deposits belong to a relatively small number of wealthy citizens, who, even if they decide to withdraw money from banks with a further reduction in rates, are unlikely to rush to spend them massively, relatively speaking, on potatoes, sausage or refrigerators," the analyst notes.
According to Alexey Boyko, director of the TeDo audit and consulting company, inflation is driven more by pent-up demand rather than deposit overhang, as, for example, during the coronavirus period.
— There is no pent-up demand today. Rather, the population has the opportunity to consume and accumulate savings. The future prospects of the deposit overhang will depend on the actions of the state in terms of developing the capital market and opportunities for private investors to invest there," the expert notes.
It is unlikely that we will see an influx of funds into the stock market. According to Ivan Efanov, an analyst at Cifra Broker, a "canopy" is possible provided the stock market is growing strongly.
— As a rule, a sharp inflow of funds from deposits to the stock market occurs when stocks are already trading at a premium and the market is expensive. The second factor is real profitability. As long as the difference between the deposit rate and inflation remains high, deposits will be in demand," the source told Izvestia.
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