On a roll: Russian business has stopped noticing the pressure from outside

For four out of five heads of Russian enterprises, sanctions restrictions are not relevant. At the same time, three years ago it was important for 63% of business representatives. Two thirds of managers note an improvement in the business situation in the first half of 2025. These are the data from the CEO-Barometer study conducted by Yakov and Partners, the Roscongress Foundation, as well as the Delovaya Rossiya and RSPP associations. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

It became calmer

According to the study, the geopolitical factor no longer dominates business — only 15% of respondents called it the key one.

Nevertheless, 34% of the surveyed respondents noted a deterioration in the financial and economic situation of the company over the past six months. The authors of the study note that this figure is higher than before (24% in 2022 and 16% in 2024).

The shortage of personnel remains a priority development problem (for 48% of respondents). Another 42% of the study participants reported a problem with the rising cost of capital in the context of a high key interest rate.

A quarter of the representatives of the corporate sector were forced to suspend or slow down the implementation of investment projects. 13% entered emergency savings mode on all investment projects. At the same time, 62% of companies maintain or expand their development budgets.

The heads of companies prioritize cost optimization, increasing employee loyalty, and implementing high—tech solutions.

The government is stimulating demand

The state ensures the growth of domestic consumption by expanding the volume of public procurement, infrastructure projects, and support for socially vulnerable citizens, says Stepan Zemtsov, director of the Center for Economic Geography and Regionalism at the Presidential Academy.

— At the same time, a whole range of investment incentive measures was developed, the so-called budget incentive, including an infrastructure menu, infrastructure budget loans, special investment contracts, preferential investment loans, etc. These measures were designed to ensure the transformation of the economy and stimulated the restructuring of businesses, reorientation to domestic markets," he says.

According to the expert, the business has mainly adapted to the changes, has rebuilt production and trade chains to domestic contractors and neutral countries. He sees the high interest rate of the Bank of Russia as a much more significant problem.

"Capital—intensive industries require significant long-term investments, including borrowed funds, which is impossible at the current refinancing rate,— complains Zemtsov.

Restrained optimism

58% of respondents expect a tangible improvement in the situation. At the same time, representatives of the mining, heavy, oil and gas, chemical, energy industries, as well as the transport sector turned out to be the least optimistic.

According to Alexey Kurasov, Head of Finam's Corporate Finance department, pessimistic sentiments are observed in the export and capital-intensive sectors.

— Because of the sanctions, export volumes are falling, and because of the high rate, it is unprofitable to modernize production or build new factories and real estate. But the largest companies remain profitable, and the business still has a margin of safety," he says.

According to the analyst, the multiple growth is going to import substitution, primarily food, IT, services and other consumer goods.

"Instead of foreign resorts and vacations, most choose the domestic market for travel, many pharmaceutical companies have promptly released analogues of world brands that have left our market, and the situation with clothing is similar," he lists the successes of the Russian economy.

Kurasov noted that there were fewer government benefits during 2024, but many representatives of medium and small businesses became more actively involved in public procurement — their share increased by more than 20%.

Two groups of companies can be distinguished: those that are developing at the expense of the domestic market, which was liberated by the "Westerners" (IT sector, telecom, services, catering and trade), and those who are purely objectively focused on the foreign market (mostly large raw materials companies), comments the head of the Industry direction Olga Orlova, Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies.

— It is obvious that the former and the latter are in unequal conditions for growth and development. In particular, the mining sector faced not only general business problems, such as export and logistics difficulties, difficulties in making payments, a cheap dollar, a high key rate, and a shortage of qualified personnel. Specific factors are superimposed on them: equipment obsolescence, reduced productivity (money is needed to modernize equipment and train personnel), work in high-risk conditions (you can earn more as a courier without risking your health), low automation (few industrialists have digitized, and the difference in technological equipment is obvious; and all promising personnel are already in in the banking or IT sector), the lack of modern product quality control systems," she says.

According to her, the same problems are typical for the oil and gas and metallurgical industries.

Tired of being afraid

In 2022, 6-7 out of ten entrepreneurs were afraid of the impact of sanctions (now 1-2), and anxiety about the future was growing at the same time, says Yulia Makarenko, Deputy director of the Banking Development Institute.

"Now, after numerous perturbations, operational decisions to change logistics routes, and failed and successful negotiations, Russian business has adapted to everything, and it is simply pointless to talk about threats of external pressure — everything has either already happened or will inevitably happen, and you will have to adapt to another variable," she says.

From a financier's point of view, Russian business has already come up with new ways to make money.

"Those who master new approaches, in particular, customization of products for demand in the B2B sector, gain a competitive advantage,— believes Makarenko.

Also, according to the interlocutor of Izvestia, in connection with the resumption of the negotiation process, there is an interest in Russian business and the stock market, as evidenced by the high demand for ruble assets.

Izvestia sent inquiries to the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and Delovaya Rossiya, but no responses had been received at the time of publication.