Rocket Sequel: how and when can Iran respond to US strikes

The large-scale strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, which was carried out by the US armed forces on the morning of June 22, caused a resonance both in the Middle East and within the United States itself. President Donald Trump has declared the "complete destruction" of Tehran's uranium enrichment potential and threatened new attacks if negotiations are abandoned. The operation covered key facilities in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, which were attacked by strategic aircraft and missiles from submarines. Iran confirmed the attack, claiming the right to self-defense and warning of serious consequences. Experts interviewed by Izvestia do not rule out that the answer may be to block the Strait of Hormuz and continue attacks on Israel. The Russian Federation strongly condemned the American attacks on the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities and called on the parties to return to the political and diplomatic track. Trump's decision caused a sharp political reaction inside the United States: Democrats have already accused him of dragging the country into a catastrophic war.

The American attack

The operation of the US armed forces included simultaneous strikes by strategic aviation and the navy. According to a source in the New York Times, six B-2 bombers dropped 12 superheavy GBU-57 bombs (weighing about 13.5 tons each) at the Fordo nuclear center, located deep underground. Another pair of such bombs was dropped on Natanz. At the same time, nuclear submarines of the US Navy launched attacks with 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles on targets in Natanz and Isfahan.

According to Donald Trump, the purpose of the operation was "the complete destruction of Iran's uranium enrichment potential." The American president said that the strikes had achieved their goal, and called on Tehran for peace — otherwise, according to him, the subsequent attacks "will be much stronger."

— Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If this does not happen, the strikes will continue," Trump said.

Dmitry Kornev, the editor of the Military Russia project, told Izvestia about the details of the attack.

— GBU-57 bombs worked according to Fordo — these are the heaviest correctable bombs in the world, designed to destroy deeply buried fortified targets. They were carried by B-2 bombers made using stealth technology," the expert said.

The attacked facilities are key elements of the Iranian nuclear program. Fordo and Natanz served as uranium enrichment centers, while Fordo is located in a mountainous area and is considered one of the most protected facilities in the country.

Moscow strongly condemned the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, calling them a gross violation of international law and the UN Charter. The Russian Foreign Ministry's statement stresses that Washington's actions following the Israeli attacks constitute an act of aggression against a sovereign state and are fraught with grave consequences for regional and global stability. Moscow considers the fact that the attack was carried out by a permanent member state of the UN Security Council to be particularly alarming.

The Russian side expressed concern about the destruction of the nuclear nonproliferation architecture, noting that attacks on Iran's nuclear program facilities had seriously damaged the IAEA monitoring system and undermined the authority of the NPT. Moscow called on the IAEA to immediately provide an objective assessment of what is happening and submit a report for discussion at an emergency session of the agency. In addition, the Russian Federation insists on an urgent response from the UN Security Council and an end to the escalation, stressing the need for collective condemnation of the confrontational line of the United States and Israel.

It is noteworthy that the United States, apparently, notified Iran in advance about the missile and bomb attack on nuclear facilities. The media reported that Washington allegedly conveyed through third channels that the operation would be a one-time operation and limited to three specific targets: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. At the same time, an Iranian source told Reuters that most of the highly enriched uranium from Fordo "was transported to an unknown location" even before the attack. Despite the scale of the operation, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it had not detected any radiation leaks outside the facilities.

On June 23, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Moscow, where he may meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Most likely, during the meeting with the Russian president, Iran's possible withdrawal from the NPT will also be discussed — it will now be impossible to circumvent this issue," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.

The same morning, Iranian officials confirmed the attack. Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to the chairman of the Iranian parliament, said that the staff at Fordo had been evacuated in advance, and the damage "is not irreversible." A US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities will have far-reaching consequences: Iran reserves the right to defend its interests in the form of self-defense, Abbas Araqchi said. On Friday, two days before the strike, the diplomat said that "Iran is ready to consider the possibility of diplomacy again" if Israel's aggression is stopped.

— The US president expects Iran to actually surrender — to stop its nuclear and missile programs. If this does not happen, the strikes will continue," Dmitry Kornev believes.

The expert recalled that significant American forces are concentrated in the region.: "During the day, a third aircraft carrier strike group will appear in the Persian Gulf. There are already dozens of US strike aircraft with refueling aircraft, plus more than 200 Israeli aircraft that can carry out one or two sorties daily."

Iran's response

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened "deplorable responses" to the US missile and bombing attacks on nuclear facilities in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, recalling the vulnerability of US military bases in the Middle East. In addition, the IRGC announced its intention to continue attacks on infrastructure and strategic facilities in Israel.

If the statements of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu about the destruction of nuclear facilities in Iran are true, there is no need to continue hostilities against Tehran, Tigran Meloyan believes.

— There are doubts that any centrifuges in Iran were hit or damaged at all. In this case, the United States and Israel gain quick and political success, but strategically take on a lot of risk. The attack will force Iran to act even more actively in the direction of creating a nuclear or dirty bomb," the expert suggested in an interview with Izvestia.

After the direct intervention of the United States in the conflict, Iran has two options: either to capitulate and start negotiations, or to block the Strait of Hormuz. The expert believes it is unlikely that Tehran will strike back at American military installations in the Middle East, as this could lead to Washington's even deeper involvement in the war, which would have serious consequences for the Islamic Republic.

Most likely, the analyst emphasizes, Iran will prefer to close the Strait of Hormuz — this step will lead to a sharp increase in world oil prices, which will negatively affect the cost of fuel in the United States and hit the economies of European countries. At the same time, Iran, in his opinion, will continue to launch ballistic missile attacks on Israeli territory.

– The complete lack of an answer will be perceived as weakness both inside and outside the country. In this sense, Iran may now face the task of preparing a well–calibrated response that will not be aimed at escalating the conflict, but is more designed to preserve its internal legitimacy and authority," he added.

Nevertheless, the closure of the strait cannot last long: the loss of the route will deprive Tehran of important export earnings. 20% of the world's production or half of the world's exports pass from here. This would be a serious blow to the energy security of China (one of Iran's allies) and India, which relies on oil from the Middle East. Thus, it turns out that the BRICS countries will bear the brunt. Iran itself has not yet taken any measures to block ships, but recently cases of GPS jamming have been increasingly recorded in the region, which can negatively affect navigation, the expert noted.

On the afternoon of June 22, the Iranian parliament supported the idea of closing the Strait of Hormuz. But the final decision remains with the National Security Council of the country, the media write.

Iran's withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) may be another step. For Tehran, this will be a symbolic act and a way to emphasize that Trump's actions have destroyed the global nonproliferation regime. The NPT was supposed to guarantee the security of Iran and its energy facilities, but the opposite happened. At the same time, if such a decision is made, Tehran receives costs in the form of complications in relations with Moscow and Beijing. The monopoly on force (possession of nuclear weapons) has not been canceled, the expert concluded.

Despite the scale of the strikes, Tehran still has room for retaliatory actions. According to Dmitry Kornev, the Iranian air defense system is still functioning.

"They were able to shoot down four reconnaissance drones," he noted. — But not a single plane, including the B-2, was shot down. This indicates the high technological efficiency of the American operation and the shortcomings of the Iranian air defense.

The expert also questioned the feasibility of threats from Iran: statements about the possibility of shooting down the B-2 or sinking the aircraft carrier are still words. However, the country has ballistic missiles with which it can strike both land and sea targets.

On June 21, Iran fired only six rockets at Israel. According to Kornev, this may indicate a lack of weapons or restraint before the expected American strike.

"Either Iran no longer has anything to launch missiles with, or they don't have them themselves, or they have been accumulating forces, and now we will see retaliatory actions," the expert argues, "In the near future it will become clear what retaliatory actions will follow, what political decision will be made by the Iranian leadership. Maybe that's what Trump is waiting for. If there are launchers and missiles, and Iran decides to continue, we will see them in the air soon.

The reaction of the American establishment

Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator from Connecticut, expressed the opinion that Iran was not on the verge of developing nuclear weapons and did not pose an immediate threat to US security. According to him, the diplomatic negotiations between Tehran and Washington had a chance for a successful conclusion.

According to Konstantin Sukhoverkhov, program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council, there is an ambiguous political and public reaction to Trump's actions within the United States.

"Turmoil is already beginning in American society: the president's opponents, primarily Democrats, will actively criticize his decision, accusing it of unconstitutionality and dragging the country into another war," the expert emphasizes.

The leader of the Democrats in the House of Representatives, Hakim Jeffries, warned that Trump's decision to strike at nuclear facilities in Iran could draw the United States into a "potentially catastrophic war in the Middle East." He sharply criticized the actions of the Republican president, questioning their expediency.

According to Konstantin Sukhoverkhov, Trump will also have difficulties with the right—wing conservatives, a part of the electorate that initially perceived him as an opponent of wars. These voters voted, among other things, because he declared the ineffectiveness of military conflicts, emphasizing the cost and risks associated with them. Now they may feel cheated.

The expert believes that Trump will be under pressure from various sides, both from opponents and from his own supporters. Nevertheless, he does not expect a deep split within his closest political team, with the exception of individual figures such as, for example, the head of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.