"Business can develop normally at a key rate of 13-15%"

The optimal level of the key rate for Russian companies is 13-15%. This was stated by Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), in an exclusive interview with Izvestia. According to him, such a mark will ensure both sufficient business development and the fight against inflation. At the same time, high deposit rates create problems for the possible privatization of Russian state-owned companies, because no share placement can guarantee a yield of 20%. Nevertheless, trillions of rubles have accumulated in the accounts of Russians, and it is important to use this resource to develop the financial market. The impact of the key rate on Russian business was discussed in an interview with Alexander Shokhin to Izvestia.

"No privatization program can guarantee a 20% return on shares"

— Back in the spring, the Ministry of Finance announced plans to IPO seven state-owned companies under the privatization program. It was estimated that up to 300 billion rubles could be allocated to the budget due to this. Which organizations and industries are going to be privatized? And, in your opinion, how much money can actually go to the budget?

— From time to time, the government includes large-scale privatization of large state-owned companies in its programs in order to reduce the state's share in them to a controlling stake (50%+1 share). There are quite a lot of such organizations, they are attractive to the market.

Now, foreign investors are not exactly willing to enter the Russian market. Therefore, when state corporations go public, it is important to make the asset attractive not only to the companies themselves, but also to Russians.

Significant funds, amounting to tens of trillions of rubles, have been accumulated in the bank accounts of the population — this is a significant resource for the financial market. However, no privatization program can guarantee a 20% return on shares. Therefore, it is important to lower the key rate so that investments in stocks become more attractive than deposits.

— Which companies can privatize in this wave?

— Among the potential candidates for privatization are many enterprises, ranging from the fuel and energy complex to the financial sector. The implementation of such projects can bring not only 300 billion rubles to the budget, but trillions, provided favorable macroeconomic conditions are created and a well-thought-out investment policy is pursued.

Another promising area of privatization is assets returned to state ownership by court order. After completion of all judicial procedures, including the consideration of cases in the Supreme and Constitutional Courts, they should be promptly put on the market. The delay in their sale is unjustified. This privatisation channel can become a significant source of budget replenishment. In addition, it will reduce the excessive presence of the state in the economy.

If an effective private owner can be found, he must be found. And if the asset fell into the hands of the state due to the mistakes of the previous privatization, now it is possible to effectively implement it. The mistakes of past privatization processes should not be repeated — it is necessary to ensure transparent mechanisms for the transfer of property to bona fide buyers. This is of strategic importance.

"The optimal rate level can be considered 7-8%"

— What level of the key rate would be acceptable for business?

— When the rate fluctuated in the range of 7.5-15%, the business could invest normally, build development strategies based on borrowed funds, and not just on current profits. A business can develop normally at a key rate of 13-15% — it creates sufficiently favorable conditions for attracting financing through IPOs and secondary placements, including at the expense of the public.

However, this requires not only a reduction in the interest rate, but also an increase in the interest of private investors in transferring funds from deposits to securities.

The optimal rate level can be considered 7-8%, at which even infrastructure projects become profitable. However, achieving this level is possible with a reduction in inflation to the target 4%.

— But this year, inflation is unlikely to fall to the target. Judging by the macro forecast of Minek, it will be at the level of 7.6%...

— With year-end inflation at 7-7.5%, a key rate of 13-15% would be the best option. Such a level would help to balance the interests of business, investors and macroeconomic stability.