Joint bargaining: the Australia-EU agreement will disrupt stability in the Asia-Pacific region

A possible defense agreement between the EU and Australia does not add stability in the Asia-Pacific region, the Russian Embassy in Canberra told Izvestia. The Australian Prime Minister and the head of the European Commission had previously agreed to start negotiations on military cooperation, but without concluding an official alliance. Thanks to the agreement, Canberra will be able to gain access to European militarization programs, and Brussels will form its own geopolitical community, experts say. In their opinion, rapprochement with the EU may be an element of bargaining against the background of the contradictions that Australia has with the United States within the framework of the AUKUS bloc due to problems with the supply of American submarines.

Why does Australia need a defense agreement with the EU

A possible defense agreement between the EU and Australia will negatively affect the situation in the Asia-Pacific region.

— Such agreements do not add stability to the Asia-Pacific region. Australia is still mainly tied to the American military-industrial complex, and is allied with the United States under the ANZUS Treaty. However, it is likely that, like its foreign trade relations, Canberra will in one way or another try to diversify international cooperation in the field of defense," the Russian Embassy in Canberra told Izvestia.

The agreement with Australia is one of the forms of involving the EU and NATO in the affairs of the Asia—Pacific region. These organizations expect to significantly strengthen their presence there, because the Asia-Pacific region is the future center of global political and economic development, Dmitry Mosyakov, head of the Center for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania, told Izvestia.

— Obviously, Australia will not be able to act as an independent force. Therefore, she needs support from other Western countries, in particular, France and especially Germany," the expert believes.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa during the G7 summit in Canada. The parties agreed to start substantive negotiations on a security partnership. The prime minister's office explained that there is no question of a military alliance. The main areas of cooperation in the draft of the future agreement are the defense industry, cybersecurity and the fight against terrorism.

The signing of this document may expand the possibilities for Australia's participation in joint arms purchases with the EU. The involvement of Canberra in EU policy will become another tool for stimulating the union's economy, since in the future the purchased weapons should be 65% produced in the EU or in a country that already has a defense agreement with the bloc, political analyst Egor Belyachkov told Izvestia.

"In the situation of the introduction of trade duties by the Donald Trump administration and the instability of Washington's policy, the EU is trying to occupy those spheres of US influence in which Washington has somewhat reduced its activity in recent months," the expert emphasizes.

In March, the European Commission launched an EU militarization program called Readiness 2030. It is proposed to increase the military spending of the member countries of the association by 1.5% of GDP, which will provide 650 billion euros to increase the production of military equipment. In addition, Brussels plans to borrow another 150 billion euros. Brussels is trying to involve countries from all over the world in military projects.

This is not the first agreement between the EU and the Asia-Pacific countries. In November 2024, Brussels agreed on a partnership with Japan and South Korea. And in May, a similar agreement was signed with the UK. The EU came up with this format and declared it in its "Strategic Compass" in 2022 in order to try to find partners other than the United States that meet the EU's value-based approach to security, Daria Moiseeva, Candidate of Political Sciences, chief analyst at ANO Kolaboratoria, told Izvestia.

"This is rather not a targeted direction against Russia or China, but a whole strategy to build an alternative BRICS+ geopolitical network community that will be tied to the EU," the expert emphasized.

Will the new agreement cause the collapse of AUKUS

Canberra is already a member of a number of structures jointly with the EU, for example, the so-called coalition of willing military assistance to Ukraine. The Australian government clearly confirms that it remains committed to supporting the Kiev regime, the Russian Embassy in Canberra told Izvestia. The total amount of aid has already exceeded the $1 billion mark, of which more than $800 million has been allocated in the form of arms and military equipment supplies.

— The Labor government headed by Anthony Albanese clearly confirms the immutability of the policy of supporting the Kiev regime. This idea is being imposed on the local society day after day as not only "true", but also in the interests of Australians. At the same time, the statements of the country's officials are heavily involved in the concept of combating "Russian imperialism," the Russian diplomatic mission stressed.

The start of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul also did not affect Canberra's position. Just before the meeting of the two countries' delegations, Australia sent Kiev 49 decommissioned American-made M1A1 Abrams tanks, which it announced in October 2024, the Russian Embassy summarized. It is noteworthy that Australia has begun negotiations on military cooperation with the EU against the background of cooling relations with the United States. In early June, it became known that the administration of Donald Trump decided to check whether the deal on the construction of nuclear submarines for Australia was consistent with the "America First" policy. The Pentagon also demanded that Australia increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP.

Meanwhile, Canberra cooperates with London through AUKUS. In 2021, Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom signed a military cooperation agreement called AUKUS. According to the agreement, London and Washington should help Australia create a fleet of nuclear submarines. The countries are jointly developing the SSN-AUKUS attack submarine using American technology. It should enter service in the early 2040s. The United States has also committed to sell Australia up to five Virginia-class submarines starting in 2032. Canberra transferred the first tranche of $500 million in January. Moreover, for the sake of cooperation with the United Kingdom and the United States, Australia terminated the contract with French companies, causing an international scandal.

However, the Pentagon began to doubt that they would be able to fulfill their contractual obligations without compromising their security. According to US Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, who is reviewing the AUKUS program, the submarines will be "absolutely necessary" to protect Taiwan, which China perceives as part of its territory.

AUKUS will still remain one of the priorities of the Trump administration, because it is a working mechanism, and the US president himself does not trust the EU and will monitor Brussels' attempts to strengthen its influence in the region. The alliance with Australia and the United Kingdom remains relevant for the United States even against the background of competition with China, Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai International Discussion Club, told Izvestia.

Australia and the United States are trying to get concessions from each other by following the tactics of bargaining. By strengthening relations with the EU, Canberra gets access to the European defense market and shows that it is able to diversify ties. The United States is demanding that Australia increase defense spending and is using the issue of nuclear submarines as a lever of pressure.