How the Houthis will affect the conflict between Iran and Israel. Analysis

Yemeni Houthis attacked the infrastructure of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Tel Aviv on the night of June 15. The movement coordinated this strike with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran. Why the Houthis are involved in the conflict and how the confrontation may change is discussed in Izvestia.

The reasons for the Houthis' involvement

• The Yemeni Houthis launched several rocket attacks on Israel on June 14. They used several hypersonic ballistic missiles."​Palestine-2".

• The Movement is interested in participating in the conflict between Iran and Israel for several pragmatic reasons. First of all, participation in the anti-Israel line allows the Houthis to strengthen their own legitimacy inside Yemen. Acting as part of a broader "axis of resistance," they reinforce the image of a movement with international weight. This can strengthen their credibility among the population, especially against the backdrop of years of war and humanitarian crisis.

• The Houthis are also seeking to increase their political weight outside of Yemen. By participating in conflicts involving global and regional players, they demonstrate their willingness to influence security and trade in the Red Sea. As a result, the more significant their role on the international agenda, the more difficult it is to ignore their interests in possible peace agreements on Yemen.

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In addition, Iran's support provides the Houthis with a resource and technical base. By taking part in a major conflict, they strengthen their alliance with Tehran and gain access to modern technology, weapons, intelligence, and diplomatic channels. This cooperation works both ways, but it is more critical for the Houthis, because it is their way of surviving in conditions of international isolation.

Influence on the course of the conflict

The Houthis have an arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, as well as the ability to launch long-range strikes, including Israel's southern port of Eilat. This creates the need for Tel Aviv to reallocate its air defense and military infrastructure to take into account the southern direction, which previously posed no immediate threat.

• There is also a possibility of a Houthi attack on shipping routes in the Red Sea. This affects not only Israel, but also global trade, especially the transportation of oil and goods through the Suez Canal. Consequently, the conflict may acquire an economic dimension with potentially global consequences.

• After the Houthis became involved, the conflict became regional. Scaling the geography of the confrontation complicates forecasting and requires participants to be more flexible in military planning.

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Engaging new players

• Iran can count on the support of several political forces with which it has built stable political, military and ideological ties. First of all, this concerns the Lebanese Hezbollah, which acts as Iran's key partner in the Levant (territories of Syria, Jordan, Palestine, Israel and Lebanon). If necessary, it can open a northern front against Israel, operating from Lebanon and, partly, Syria. However, it should be borne in mind that the recent active confrontation with Israel has significantly weakened the group.

• There are also a number of Shiite armed groups operating in Iraq. They are loyal to Iran, have combat experience and can act as regional mediators in the event of a large-scale conflict.

In addition, Iran can count on diplomatic support from states interested in weakening Western influence in the Middle East. In particular, this may apply to Syria, Iraq and Qatar. Most likely, this will manifest itself in helping to circumvent sanctions.

• At the same time, the active involvement of the West remains likely only in the event of a large-scale escalation, a direct threat to allies, or critical violations of international security. In less acute scenarios, Western countries are likely to use instruments of deterrence and pressure, in particular, economic sanctions.

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Prospects for conflict development

• The Houthis have an ideological and practical interest in engaging in conflict. Among the main reasons are the strengthening of the position within the country, the growth of external influence, participation in the global agenda and strengthening ties with allies. First of all, this is a way for the movement to assert itself as a player capable of influencing international processes.

However, the participation of the Houthis does not fundamentally change the balance of power in the conflict between Iran and Israel, as the movement does not have significant military forces compared to the Israeli ones. At the same time, the involvement of the Houthis significantly complicates the architecture of the confrontation: new pressure points arise, as well as logistical and military challenges. A prolonged low-intensity war is likely to continue. Under it, the parties will launch local strikes on a daily basis, and the regional economy will gradually deteriorate.

• If the threat to global energy supplies and shipping in the Red Sea increases, this may lead to international intervention by Western countries, including the United States, to stabilize the situation. This is a costly and risky scenario, but it is possible only in the case of a sustained escalation of the conflict. The Pentagon does not rule out an air-sea campaign against Iran without the introduction of ground forces.

When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:

● political scientist Ivan Mezyuho;

● Orientalist Dmitry Brije;

● Political scientist Vladimir Shapovalov.