The budget deficit of the Russian Federation may grow to 4.4 trillion

The total budget deficit at all levels in 2025 will reach 2% of GDP or 4.4 trillion rubles, analysts surveyed by the Central Bank predict (Izvestia studied the results of the May survey of the regulator). This is three times more than the initial forecast of the Ministry of Finance (1.2 trillion).

Free cash register: The authorities have found a way to reduce the budget deficit

The Ministry of Finance plans to increase revenues from temporarily unused funds — how much can the treasury earn on this?

Economists have increased their estimate of the deficit amid amendments to the federal budget. According to the adjustments, revenues will decrease by 5% and expenses will increase by 2%. As a result, the shortage of the federal treasury will triple to 3.8 trillion.

The increase in the deficit is associated with a fall in oil prices, a strengthening of the ruble and a reduction in exports, an increase in defense and social policy spending, Mikhail Kosov, head of the Department of State and Municipal Finance at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, explained.

The shortage in the treasury has been fixed for the fourth year in a row and consistently exceeds the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance. This complicates planning, reduces confidence in fiscal policy and accelerates the expenditure of reserves, Kosov said.

"In addition, as the shortage increases, so does the amount of government debt, and hence the cost of servicing it. In such circumstances, subsidies to the regions may be cut and some infrastructure projects may be suspended," he added.

However, according to Lazar Badalov, associate professor at RUDN University, such a shortage usually stimulates economic growth in a country if funds are used to invest and support demand.

Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:

Raise the plan: the budget deficit of the Russian Federation may grow to 4.4 trillion