Pause or failure: why haven't Armenia and Azerbaijan made peace yet
In mid-March, Armenia and Azerbaijan announced that they had fully agreed on the text of the peace treaty. However, the document has not yet been signed due to the preconditions that arose during the negotiations. Izvestia was looking into whether Yerevan and Baku could reach a compromise and put it on paper.
Pashinyan congratulates Muslims
In early June, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan paid much attention to the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha. First, during the telephone conversations, he personally congratulated the leaders of Iran and Turkey. Secondly, for the first time in the history of bilateral relations, I have sent congratulations to the Azerbaijani people. "I wish peace and prosperity to our countries," he wrote on the social network.
Opinions about this message are divided in Baku. There were no official comments, but many local users wrote on social media that it was thanks to such steps that lasting peace could be established between the states. Others called Pashinyan's statement a trick, recalling that before the loss of Karabakh, he had no warm feelings for his neighbors.
Many people in Yerevan noticed that the congratulations were delivered at the very moment when Nikol Pashinyan launched a large-scale campaign against the Armenian Apostolic Church inside the country. In the first days of June, the politician actually made several scandalous statements. At first, he reported that Armenian churches were cluttered and "urbanized." Then he added that bishops massively violate their vow of celibacy by having intimate relationships.
As a result, Pashinyan attacked Catholicos Garegin II personally. According to the Prime Minister of Armenia, the head of the church also violates the rules of celibacy, he has a child, and therefore he must leave the highest spiritual post. Then he actually threatened to expel the religious leader from his residence by force. "I call on all followers of the Armenian Apostolic Church to unite around the agenda of the liberation of the Patriarchate," he wrote.
Many representatives of the opposition have previously stated that Pashinyan is acting in the interests of Baku and Ankara, and in the current circumstances, they have further strengthened this opinion, and attention to the Muslim holiday has only worsened the situation. "You are carrying out the program of turning Armenia into West Azerbaijan, and the Armenian Church is the main obstacle for you," said former MP Eduard Sharmazanov.
Etchmiadzin Cathedral
Against this background, the opposition even launched the process of impeaching Pashinyan, but the chances of success are very slim. The idea was supported by the "I have the Honor" and "Armenia" factions, which have 34 mandates between them, but 36 votes are needed to put the issue on the agenda. If the missing two votes are found, then the support of 54 deputies will be needed to directly declare a vote of no confidence — it is unlikely to involve them.
Baku demands to change the Armenian Constitution
For five years after the 2020 war, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been negotiating a peace agreement that would put an end to the hostility between the two countries. In February, Pashinyan announced that 15 of the 17 points of the document had been agreed. At that time, questions remained about the deployment of third-country troops along the border and disputes in international courts over mutual claims.
In mid-March, the parties announced that the draft agreement had been fully agreed. Later it turned out that this happened due to the fact that Armenia made concessions on both disputed articles. Yerevan promised to recall the EU mission that monitors the situation on the line of contact, as well as jointly with Baku to abandon international lawsuits after signing the document.
The text of the agreed agreement has not been published, and the exact content remains unknown. At the same time, Armenia admits that concessions had to be made on other points. "When it became obvious that we were unable to agree on ideal formulations, we discussed them in the format of the Security Council and came to the conclusion that the current content could be considered a compromise option," Pashinyan said.
As a result, after agreeing on all the articles, it remains for the parties to determine the place and time of signing the document. However, it still hasn't come to that. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry explains that Baku has a lot of claims against its neighbors outside the framework of the peace agreement. Firstly, Armenia is required to change the country's Constitution, because it contains indirect claims to Karabakh.
Secondly, the Azerbaijani side demands the official liquidation of the OSCE Minsk Group, which was previously involved in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Baku believes that this mechanism has now lost its relevance. Technically, in order to dissolve the group, Armenia and Azerbaijan must apply to the OSCE, and the Council of Ministers of this structure, which meets at the end of each year, will make an appropriate decision.
Azerbaijani officials also periodically demand from their neighbors to agree to the creation of the Zangezur Corridor, a road that will connect Baku with the Nakhichevan enclave and Turkey. "We don't want them to interfere with us, so that they don't act as a geographical barrier. Why should we travel to Nakhichevan, which is an integral part of Azerbaijan, in different ways?", President Ilham Aliyev was indignant.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (left) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan
Finally, Baku periodically declares that Armenia should accommodate up to 300,000 Azerbaijani refugees on its territory. Initially, this topic arose as a response to Yerevan's demands to return the Armenians to Karabakh, but now it has begun to live its own life. The so-called Community of Western Azerbaijan, which promotes this idea, has been established and is actively functioning in Azerbaijan.
The Armenian authorities are ready to meet some of these demands. Nikol Pashinyan noted that the country really needs a new Constitution. According to him, the referendum may be held next summer. Yerevan also stressed that after the signing of the peace agreement, they are ready to apply to the OSCE for the dissolution of the Minsk Group.
Other requirements are more difficult. The Armenian authorities stressed that they would not allow the creation of the Zangezur corridor on their territory, categorically opposed to the placement of refugees. "We have repeatedly said that there cannot be a Western Azerbaijan on the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia," Pashinyan stressed. As a result, the parties seemed to have made progress, they approved the text of the peace agreement, but the real world is still far away.
What the experts say
Armenian political analyst Hrant Mikaelian believes that the Azerbaijani side is not going to sign anything.
Refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh
— Baku is simply delaying time. At first, they put forward their demands in the framework of negotiations on a peace agreement, then there were preconditions for signing the document. Only Armenia really wants to achieve peace, while Azerbaijan is simply trying to get more concessions in one way or another. No symbolic gestures like congratulations on the Muslim holiday will change anything here," he notes.
Azerbaijani expert Ilgar Velizade says that the peace process has stalled due to the fact that Armenia does not fulfill two important conditions of real peace.
— We are talking about changing the Constitution and abolishing the OSCE Minsk Group. Yerevan doesn't seem to mind, but it delays both decisions. For example, they say that a referendum on the Constitution may not take place until the summer of next year. Accordingly, the issue of peace is postponed for at least a year and a half. It turns out that it's not worth waiting for the signing of a peace treaty in the near future," he explains.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
