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- Profits on time: the budget will receive 163 billion unaccounted for in the forecast revenue
Profits on time: the budget will receive 163 billion unaccounted for in the forecast revenue
The budget will receive 163 billion rubles, which were not included in the initial forecast of the authorities, Izvestia found out. The main source is the transfer of profits to the Central Bank, which reported a positive result for the second time in eight years by the end of 2024. This is a considerable amount — it is comparable, for example, with the costs of national projects for the development of the economy and transport. The Ministry of Finance also raised expectations for a number of other revenues — from state duties, fines for traffic violations, refunds and environmental fees. The question of whether all this will allow balancing the budget is in the Izvestia article.
Budget revenues in 2025
In the June budget amendments, the Ministry of Finance took into account revenues that had not previously been included in the forecast — by 163 billion rubles, follows from the conclusion of the Accounting Chamber (JV) on the new edition of the financial plan.
The Central Bank will provide the main contribution — almost 150 billion rubles, the auditors note. The fact is that in 2024, the regulator finished the year in positive territory for the second time after several years of losses. The Central Bank's profit reached almost 200 billion, which is 1.5 times higher than the result of 2023. By law, the Bank of Russia is required to allocate 75% of its earnings to the budget, that is, 150 billion rubles.
The key profit of the Bank of Russia is interest income from refinancing commercial banks, explained Andrey Barkhota, PhD in Economics. These receipts depend on the value of the key interest rate, which was in the range of 16-21% last year, and the liquidity needs of the banking sector, he added. In response to a request from Izvestia about transfers to the budget, the regulator shared a link to the published report for 2024 on the results of its work.
As the Finance Ministry explained to Izvestia, the Central Bank's profits are added up and transferred at the end of the year. In September 2024, the results have not yet been determined.
In addition to the proceeds from the Central Bank, the transition to a progressive personal income tax will also bring additional funds — 5 billion, the joint venture notes. Since 2025, a five-step rate scale has been introduced from the usual 13 to 22%. Those who earn more than 2.4 million rubles a year pay more. All funds from the increased personal income tax go to the federal budget. Additional revenues from the progressive scale had been planned earlier, but now the authorities have slightly overestimated the forecast upward.
— According to personal income tax, additional income was not taken into account, since not all codes have been entered into the budget yet, the forecast was taken into account in an aggregated manner, — the Ministry of Finance clarified.
Another source of unaccounted—for income is separate administrative fines for traffic violations, according to the auditors' report. In particular, 3.4 billion will be brought to the budget by sanctions imposed by magistrates and juvenile affairs commissions. Another 1.9 billion will be provided by punishments from regional authorities and institutions. The Accounting Chamber does not specify which items account for another 3 billion in revenue not previously included in the plan. The Finance Ministry explained this by saying that the laws were adopted in December, and therefore could not be taken into account in September.
The reason why these revenues were not taken into account initially lies in the cautious approach of the Ministry of Finance to planning, says Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
The Accounting Chamber also indicated that there are no calculations for 34 types of income at all. And this, according to the auditors, indicates a lack of transparency in budgeting.
— On the one hand, 163 billion is only about 0.4% of all federal budget revenues (38.5 trillion). This is a relatively small proportion. On the other hand, it is comparable, for example, with additional expenses on preferential mortgages, as well as on national projects for the economy and transport development," said Vladimir Chernov.
Thus, in the context of the budget deficit growth from 1.2 trillion to 3.8 trillion included in the budget amendments, such amounts have weight — as an unaccounted-for reserve that can be allocated to priority tasks without revising key parameters, the expert emphasized.
Amendments to the 2025 budget
Despite the reduction in the forecast for oil and gas revenues by 2.6 trillion rubles included in the amendments, the total losses will amount to only 1.8 trillion, follows from the conclusion of the joint venture. The reason is the increase in non—commodity revenues by almost 830 billion. Additional funds will provide changes for a number of items for which the forecast has been increased.
The largest increase is expected in gratuitous receipts — their estimate has almost tripled, to 125 billion rubles, follows from the budget amendments. This is due to the refunds of unused funds that were provided to regions, foundations, or individual institutions from the treasury.
The forecast for environmental collection has also been almost tripled to 19 billion. This is due to both an increase in collection rates and a change in recycling standards, explained Ekaterina Golubtsova, Associate Professor of the Department of State and Municipal Finance at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. In addition, we have received arrears on this payment for previous periods, the repayment of which is difficult to predict.
The Ministry of Finance expects additional revenues from state duties — they will bring 255 billion to the treasury, 1.4 times more than previously planned. The increase is due to an increase in rates from July 2025 for migration actions (for example, for registration of residence, issuance of permits and visas) and registration of transport, the Joint Venture said in its conclusion.
A significant increase is also expected from fines — the forecast for them has been increased by a third, to 258 billion. The auditors attribute the increase to an expected increase in penalties for traffic violations, a decrease in discounts for quick payments, as well as a clarification of penalty receipts. As Izvestia wrote, in the first quarter, Russians have already paid a quarter more for such violations than a year earlier.
— In general, the established plan for revenues not related to oil and gas may be exceeded. The potential remains due to personal income tax, VAT, profits of the Central Bank and other sources. But the Accounting Chamber criticizes the optimism of the Ministry of Finance in a number of positions, for example, on VAT, where the level of collection is overestimated (98% against the actual 94%), — said Vladimir Chernov.
As Vladimir Klimanov, director of the Center for Regional Policy at the IPEI RANEPA, noted, the growth of non-oil and gas revenues may continue, but their share in the revenue structure remains unstable. If the profitability of the business decreases, the plan may indeed not be executed.
However, the risks of budget deficit growth remain, noted Vladimir Chernov. According to him, the forecast is based on optimistic estimates of GDP and income, which raises questions from auditors. In addition, in 2025, the price of Russian oil is projected to be below the base level ($56 versus $60 per barrel), which also carries risks for oil and gas revenues. Nevertheless, the level of public debt in the Russian Federation is still quite low, which means that the country has the opportunity to pay off the shortfall without significant damage to financial stability.
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