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The flight is formal: the chances of launching direct flights to Seoul are growing after the elections
The resumption of flights between Russia and South Korea has good prospects, Russian Ambassador to Seoul Georgy Zinoviev told Izvestia. In addition, the issue of transport connectivity will be discussed at the APEC Forum, which will be held in South Korea this year. Representatives of the Democratic Party of the Republic of Kazakhstan, from which Lee Jae-myung was recently elected president, announced the possibility of an early resumption of direct flights. At the same time, Seoul is not going to abandon anti-Russian sanctions yet. What are the prospects for flights and whether this will be the first step towards a thaw in relations between Moscow and Seoul — in the Izvestia article.
Will direct flights to South Korea resume
The chances of resuming direct flights between Russia and South Korea are growing. Intentions to restore flights were expressed in the Democratic Party of Lee Jae-myung, who has just become the new president of the country. Against this background, there are good prospects for launching direct flights, Russian Ambassador to Seoul Georgy Zinoviev told Izvestia.
— In our opinion, the resumption of flights between Russia and the Republic of Korea meets the interests of the peoples of the two countries, and will also contribute to the intensification of exchanges, including business and humanitarian ones. This issue is not classified as difficult and has good prospects for resolution if desired. In addition, it is in line with the development of transport connectivity, which is one of the tasks being solved within the framework of the APEC forum, which the Republic of Korea is hosting this year," the Russian ambassador told Izvestia.
South Korea stopped direct flights to Russia in 2022, joining EU sanctions. Before that, the tourist flow from Russia was actively growing. In 2019, more than 350 thousand travelers visited Kazakhstan. We flew with Aeroflot and Korean Air airlines from Moscow and St. Petersburg to Seoul, Busan, Jeju, Gimpo. There were also flights from Vladivostok to Seoul, and the travel time was only 2-3 hours.
After the expected decline, the tourist flow is gradually starting to recover, even despite the need to travel with transfers. In January-August 2024, it increased by 22.8% compared to the same period a year ago. And for the whole year, it has grown, as a result, by a quarter compared to 2023.
— Even under restrictions, Russians visit South Korea for tourism, business trips, studies, and medicine. The most popular connections are via China or the Middle East, which, of course, lengthens the travel time and sometimes increases the cost. The number of connecting flights has increased, and demand in this region as a whole, including South Korea, is growing," Dmitry Gorin, vice president of the Russian Union of Travel Industry, tells Izvestia.
Recently, combined China-South Korea, China-Japan-South Korea trips have become in demand. "We will very much hope that the language of diplomacy will lead to this restoration in some future. Despite logistical obstacles, tourism as a people's diplomacy implements the principle of cooperation between countries," Gorin said. It is important to note that the situation negatively affects ordinary citizens of the Republic of Kazakhstan. According to the Russian Ambassador to South Korea, Georgy Zinoviev, the current situation primarily affects ethnic Koreans who have moved to their historical homeland from the Far East and are often deprived of the opportunity to meet with their relatives in Russia.
Restoring direct flights would also be beneficial to South Korea from an economic point of view.
— Korean aviation is suffering losses due to the fact that it cannot use Russian airspace. If their carriers resume flights, it will give them access to our skies in the form of transit. The losses here are many times greater than from the tourist flow. Korean Air's transit capacity suffers by flying over the territory of Russia and not being able to offer its services. The flow could grow 2-3 times if there are direct flights," Artur Muradian, ATOR's Vice president for outbound Tourism and CEO of the Space Travel tour operator, told Izvestia.
After South Korea joined the sanctions, the Korean business lost its leading position in the Russian automotive market, as well as in the field of mobile devices and household appliances. By the end of 2024, the trade turnover decreased by 24%, compared to 2023 — by $11.4 billion. According to Artur Muradian, it is "economically, of course, very advisable for South Korea to be friends." Of course, with the restoration of direct flights, not only tourist exchange, but also business relations will develop.
Will relations between Russia and South Korea improve
In addition to commercial relations, Russia and South Korea are united by participation in international forums, including APEC, an organization that was created to develop relations between the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Given that the forum will be held in South Korea in 2025, a thaw in relations between Moscow and Seoul is becoming increasingly likely. But it's not that simple. South Korea is still on the list of countries unfriendly to Russia. In addition, only Japan, Singapore and South Korea joined the anti-Russian sanctions from Asian countries. With all this in mind, restoring direct communication between Russia and the Republic of Korea is quite difficult, even on a technical level.
— The Republic of Kazakhstan will have to find some ways to refuel our planes. They won't be able to just fly to us and come back with their own fuel. There is also a question of aircraft maintenance. And for this, South Korea will need to conduct transactions. And money transfers are also difficult due to sanctions. There is an option to use Korean banks, but the question is how much South Korea will be interested in this. And here, then, we rely on what the policy of the new president of South Korea will be in the Russian direction," Alexandra Zueva, an expert at the Center for Military—Economic Studies at the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, explained to Izvestia.
Lee Jae-myung, by the way, is considered a fairly loyal politician to the Russian Federation. Previously, he even advocated normalization of relations with Moscow. After the long-awaited election victory, he, of course, slightly muted his Russian narrative so as not to question the allied relations with the United States, but he did not completely abandon it. For example, after the inauguration, he spoke out against excessive hostility towards Russia and China.
Kazakhstan is obviously interested in maintaining trade and economic ties with Russia for the time being, but logistical difficulties do not allow for a sharp breakthrough. A representative of the Democratic Party, Chong Yong-gi, said that Korean Air had been informed of Russia's readiness to discuss the resumption of direct flights from Moscow to Incheon Airport.
— Most likely, the issue of some kind of resumption of transport links, and maybe an increase, for example, in the number of ferries between South Korea and the Far East is quite possible. Because, after all, air travel is a rather sensitive and complex topic," Alexandra Zueva summed up.
It remains unclear whether it is possible at this stage to talk about a "thaw" in relations between Russia and South Korea, and the resumption of direct air traffic and transit cargo transportation due to Seoul's solidarity with Western sanctions and the difficulties of organizing the very process of air traffic.
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