You can get out: why every third student drops out of university
Dmitry Afanasyev, Deputy Minister of Science and Higher Education, said that from 15 to 40% of students in various fields do not complete their studies at universities. These figures are confirmed by Russian researchers. The Ministry of Education and Science believes that the main reason is the inability of students to study due to poor school preparation. However, experts point out that it's not just about bad students, and they admit that the trend towards increasing dropout rates may only intensify. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
How many students drop out of universities
Dmitry Afanasyev cited the dropout figures at the HRexpo pro People forum.
"Over the years of studying in various fields of specialty, from 15 to 32%, and somewhere up to 40% of us drop out. Most of all because (students. — Ed.) are not able to learn. Therefore, we have a huge demand in the general education system. We are working together to ensure that the quality of mathematical, natural science and humanitarian education has increased, of course, so that the most prepared and knowledgeable applicants enter, but motivation is also very important," he said.
According to him, practical training will be increased in the new education system in order to adapt training to the future profession as much as possible.
It should be noted that in some specialties, the proportion of students who have not completed their studies may be even higher. Last year, analysts at the consulting company Yakov and Partners conducted a study according to which only 50% of those enrolled in IT majors graduate with a bachelor's degree. For those enrolled on a paid basis, this proportion is even lower. According to a recent study by Yakov and Partners, in 2024, the maximum number of students enrolled in IT specialties is 90 thousand people.
Elena Gorbunova, a senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics Institute of Education, notes that dropouts are not so easy to calculate: for example, should a student be considered a dropout if he immediately transferred to another university, or simply switched to another program, form, or type of study at the same university?
But the figures provided by the Ministry of Education and Science are generally confirmed by a study by the Institute of Education: scientists, based on official publicly available summary statistics, studied the flows of students who should have already completed their studies from 2016 to 2021. The dropout rate turned out to be highly dependent on the direction, form of study, the need for payment, whether these are state universities, federal or regional, etc.
— For the main streams of students, dropout ranges from 11-20% to 45-50%, depending on the parameters of the program and training. The average is 28-32%, depending on the assessment method. In the areas of study — from 15% to 35-37%, by region — from 22% to 45-50%, — says Elena Gorbunova.
According to the Izvestia interlocutor, the largest dropouts are in agriculture, mathematics, natural sciences, and engineering. Students in pedagogy and healthcare are the least likely to drop out. Among those who enrolled in bachelor's degree programs, the dropout rate is slightly higher than in the specialty.
The situation is similar in the rest of the world: a 2019 study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) shows that, on average, 67% of full-time students complete their studies worldwide. However, the spread is wide: in Brazil, Slovenia, and Chile, the average dropout rate is almost 50%, in the UK, Israel, Switzerland, and Ireland — 15-19%. Iceland, the USA, the Netherlands, Australia, and Norway are comparable to Russia's indicators, says Elena Gorbunova.
— At the same time, in some of the mentioned countries, reducing the dropout rate is one of the priorities of government policy, — said the expert. — In the Europe 2020 strategy, it is included in the goal of increasing the proportion of young people with higher education. In the United States, the Every Student Achievement Act calls on states and counties to support students to reduce dropout rates. In Brazil, the "University for All" state program solves similar problems. That is, such a dropout rate is perceived as a problem.
What are the reasons for student dropouts?
Boris Ilyukhin, a senior researcher at the Center for Economics of Continuing Education at the IPEI Presidential Academy, notes that the number of students who do not complete their studies was quite high even in Soviet times. One of the main reasons, he believes, is the insufficiently informed choice of specialties by school graduates.
— In many countries of the world, this choice is made much later — at the age of 20 and older, — said the interlocutor of Izvestia. — In addition, the availability of higher education has played a cruel joke — there are a lot of budget places. According to this indicator, we are among the leading countries. As a result, a significant number of students are insufficiently motivated to study and often not only cannot, but also does not want to study.
He adds that, according to statistics, there are more deductions for technical specialties and difficult-to-master programs at large universities: MIPT, Moscow State University, etc.
— About 50% of those enrolled in the first year often reach the end. This has always been the norm for leading universities. About half of the 250 people in my class graduated in 1993," the expert notes. — The main reasons are separation from parents and unwillingness to organize themselves, insufficient level of training (in junior courses), lack of understanding of where to go to work and how much to earn.
Elena Gorbunova notes that the dropout rate is quite stable: the reasons for the deductions seem to be quite stable over the past few years.
"But if there was a slow downward trend in the average dropout rate for students before 2018, then there has been a noticeable increase since 2018, by about a third by now," she said.
Elena Gorbunova notes that formally, the main reason for dropout in Russia is academic failure (more than 120 thousand people in 2024), in second place is voluntary expulsion (more than 100 thousand), and "other reasons" (more than 50 thousand). Another 50 thousand left universities due to non-payment.
— In general, the expulsion in Russia is forced, formally due to poor grades. But the question remains: what is the reason for such estimates? After all, it wasn't long ago that applicants' knowledge and success were considered sufficient to study at universities where the best school graduates go," said Elena Gorbunova. — Among the factors of "failure" (and expulsion in Russia is often perceived as a failure, causing social condemnation) is not only the background of the student with whom he came to university, but also motivation to study and other personal characteristics: self-confidence, resistance to stress, efficiency, locus of control, etc.
Elena Kuznetsova, director of the Yakov and Partners Institute for Economic Research, referring to her company's research data, calls employment the most common reason for students to refuse to continue their studies in IT fields.
— Among the students who did not graduate from the university, 40% were able to find a job before graduation, and 38% of graduates of IT fields are already working in their specialty at the time of graduation. And more than 5% of students start working from the first year," she said.
Will the dropout rate increase
According to Elena Gorbunova, in 2003, according to the OECD, the dropout rate in Russia was about 21%.
— It is not entirely clear what the uptrend of recent years is related to, but without external changes it is likely to persist, — said the researcher. — Obviously, there is a contribution of the pandemic, and the structural restructuring of the economy, and changes in the priorities of students — for example, the recorded increase in attitudes towards higher education as obtaining "knowledge for life", and not just a formal graduation diploma.
Irina Abankina, a professor at the HSE Institute of Education, expects that the growth in the proportion of students who do not graduate from university will continue. She considers this to be a consequence of the expansion of the admission control figures, including in regional universities.
"The increase in CPI in regional universities, primarily for engineering, technical, and technological specialties, has led to the replacement of paid education with budget—funded education in complex areas of study," she told Izvestia. — Sometimes it got to the point that computer science or even social studies were counted instead of the physics exam, just to fill these budget places. The guys are not motivated for such training areas, it is very difficult to master them, and the level of training is low.
According to her, such students are simply being dragged into the higher education system, and at public expense, but they cannot cope with it.
Another reason, which the expert cites, is the crisis of professional self—determination, which often occurs after the second and third years.
— My masters created a special consulting service for those who cannot cope with academic disciplines, and they found out that the problem is often not academic debts — students could sort them out. The problem is that they don't want to do it anymore, either now or later," Irina Abankina said.
Nevertheless, Evgeny Bely, Candidate of Technical Sciences, author of the Telegram channel "Science and Universities", admits that in the coming years the percentage of those who did not complete their studies will decrease, as restrictions on paid admission are introduced, which will close the way to the university for some weak applicants. In addition, a significant proportion of 9th and 11th grade graduates are now going to college.
"But there are also factors that can negate the efforts of university administrations to reduce the number of expelled students," he told Izvestia. — Most students combine work with study, and if the job provides a decent income, it becomes more important than studying. In addition, if the higher education system gets rid of the dependence of the university's funding on the number of students, it will become much easier for departments and deans to expel students, which will certainly increase dropouts.
How to solve the problem
Evgeny Bely believes that in order to reduce the dropout rate of students during their studies, it is necessary to raise the USE score thresholds required for admission to university, so that applicants with a conditional 30 points on the exam do not become students.
Evgeny Tikhonov, an expert and head of the design and training laboratory for the effectiveness of government measures for the development of education at the HSE Institute of Education, notes that it is important to transform educational programs and improve their quality so that students understand why they study at the university.
"It is also necessary to focus on the implementation of various kinds of adaptation programs, since a significant part of the problems arise in the first year, at the stage of transition to a university educational environment, which is very different from school," he told Izvestia. — Students here face psychological problems, sometimes domestic ones, in connection with moving to a new city, and this is superimposed on a high academic load. And here we need system solutions that will make this transition more gentle, "seamless". Special work is required from universities with the support of the Ministry of Education and Science.
Another important measure is to increase financial support for students so that they do not have to work. And industrial practice could be integrated into graduate programs so that you can work and study "synchronously and meaningfully, for results."
Irina Abankina is confident that the new standard of education will help reduce student dropout rates "2+2+2 " with the possibility of changing the specialty after two years and assigning a secondary degree. Moreover, after its assignment, the student could enter the labor market and then recover in order to change his field of study, taking into account the new professional self-determination.
"Today, people who drop out of university almost can't come back," she said. — I hope that the new Russian national education system will have a standard of education that is called sandwich in other countries: you can study, work, and then continue to study again, but taking into account the education you have already received.
The Ministry of Education and Science did not respond to a request from Izvestia at the time of publication.
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