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- The third is too much: Europe wants to prevent the normalization of relations between Russia and the United States
The third is too much: Europe wants to prevent the normalization of relations between Russia and the United States
The Europeans want to prevent the normalization of Russian-American relations, but these attempts are not effective as long as the Russian Federation and the United States remain committed to promoting them, Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz intended to convince Washington to tighten its policy against Moscow. On June 5, he met with Donald Trump for the first time after his election. Following the meeting, the head of the White House said he could impose sanctions on both Russia and Ukraine if they failed to reach an agreement. Trump's conversation with Vladimir Putin on June 4 showed that Washington prefers to stay on track with negotiations. The European Union, on the contrary, is heading for accelerated militarization.
Europe is trying to toughen the US position on Russia
On the eve of the NATO summit in The Hague, European leaders have stepped up diplomatic efforts to persuade the United States to take a tougher stance against Russia. Since Donald Trump took office, the United States has refrained from imposing new sanctions against Russia, at least publicly. There were no official new supplies of military aid to Ukraine.
— There is not the slightest doubt that the Europeans are trying to prevent the normalization of Russian-American relations. How effective these attempts will be will depend not on European leaders, but on the leaders of Russia and the United States. As long as they remain committed to moving forward in bilateral relations, to their consistent normalization, I think it will gradually gain momentum," Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia.
Here, Europe is unlikely to have a decisive impact on the essence of the processes taking place in Russian-American relations. She simply does not have the strength or political will to do this, the deputy chairman of the Federation Council added.
Friedrich Merz tried to tip the scales in the "European" direction this time. On the eve of the first meeting of the new German Chancellor with the American leader, a meeting of the contact group on defense of Ukraine (UDCG) was held. For the first time, the head of the Pentagon did not attend the meeting, although earlier it was the United States that led the meetings in the Ramstein format.
Given the fiasco of some of his counterparts, for example, Vladimir Zelensky, Merz was "preparing for everything" before the meeting with Trump, the American media noted. According to The Washington Post, the chancellor consulted with colleagues in advance on how to deal with Donald Trump in the Oval Office, "where ambushes sometimes lurk." The scenarios ranged from strong handshakes to public swearing, Bloomberg notes.
As a result, the meeting was held without incident, but also without loud anti-Russian statements. The leaders of Germany and the United States expectedly confirmed that they want to achieve an end to the conflict in Ukraine. However, when asked by the German Chancellor about the readiness of the United States to exert more pressure on Russia, the American president responded ambiguously, threatening sanctions on both sides of the conflict if agreements could not be reached. In the context of US-German relations, Trump promised not to withdraw the American military contingent from Germany, dispelling the concerns of European leaders.
Merz obviously wants to take the lead in lobbying for European interests. Before that, while the German government was headed by Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron actively tried on the role of ideological inspirer in the EU, proposing to introduce peacekeeping contingents in Ukraine and creating alliances like the "coalition of the willing."
— At the epicenter of this competition, each of them will want to show himself as a radical politician as possible in terms of countering Russia and maintaining normal relations with the United States. In this context, of course, the main tool is the further militarization of both the EU and each individual country. It will be visible, it's already visible on Macron, and it will definitely be visible on Merz," Konstantin Kosachev told Izvestia.
The US is dictating terms to Europe
One of the goals of Friedrich Merz's visit is to show Trump that the Europeans want to talk to him on equal terms. He will say that he does not believe in peace agreements on Ukraine and will urge Trump to thoroughly prepare for the upcoming NATO summit, where, from Merz's point of view, Europeans and Americans will have to create a united front in support of Ukraine, German political analyst Alexander Rahr tells Izvestia. However, most likely, Merz will not achieve his goals.
— Trump considers it necessary to transfer the burden of providing Ukrainian aid to Europe. In addition, Trump is quite skeptical about the possibility of changing the course of the conflict by increasing Western military assistance. He believes that now it is necessary to strive for a cease-fire, and then for a peace agreement. Therefore, I think that pressure is more likely to be exerted by Trump on Merz, rather than vice versa," says Andrei Kortunov, scientific director of the RIAC.
On June 4, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had their fourth telephone conversation, which confirmed the American leader's intention to follow the path of settlement rather than escalation. The Presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States agreed to continue contacts on Ukraine, including at the highest level. At the same time, Putin stressed that Kiev was trying to disrupt the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian negotiations by carrying out attacks against the Russian civilian population.
The next day, Trump said that he "understands Putin" in connection with the recent attacks in Kiev, but asked the Russian president not to respond to Kiev's recent attack on airfields. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov also noted that Vladimir Putin "supported the continuation of contacts with Kiev at the working level, despite the transformation of the Kiev regime into a terrorist one."
"Based on the telephone conversation, it can be assumed that so far Trump does not consider it necessary to significantly tighten sanctions against Moscow, and he is not ready to hold Russia at least solely responsible for the difficulties that have emerged during the Russian—Ukrainian dialogue," adds Andrei Kortunov.
Europe is moving towards militarization
Friedrich Merz seeks to appear as the leader of the whole of Europe precisely through militarization. The issue of supplying Taurus missiles remained in limbo for months, until the new chancellor decided to promise them to Ukraine, and even launch a joint production of long-range weapons. After the restrictions on any defense spending exceeding 1% of the country's GDP were lifted in the Bundestag, everything is going to ensure that the total military fund will amount to about 500 billion euros, from which the accelerated militarization of Germany will be financed, Alexander Rahr notes. In general, this trend has spread to the entire European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented an 800 billion euro European rearmament plan in March.
At the end of the term of the US military programs, approved by the Joe Biden administration, the costs of supporting Ukraine will be replenished from the budgets of the EU countries. At the same time, against the background of rising energy prices and increased defense spending, more than half of the union's members have already sent requests to the European Commission to increase the budget deficit, EC representative Balash Uyvari said recently.
The US trade duties hanging over the EU may leave an even bigger financial hole. For many European countries, and primarily for Germany, the United States remains an important trading partner and traditional ally, so the German Chancellor is forced to look for common ground. Perhaps that is why he did not engage in skirmishes with Trump, and their press conference was more like a monologue by the American president.
By mobilizing efforts for a possible confrontation with Russia, European leaders are trying to enlist the support of countries and the Global South. On June 5, Emmanuel Macron met with Brazilian Leader Lula da Silva to discuss bilateral strategic partnership and trade and economic issues. Shortly before that, the French president also visited a number of Southeast Asian countries in order to conclude trade and defense agreements. Ukraine is also trying to cling to the countries of the Global South: in May, Vladimir Zelensky visited South Africa, where he met with President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Simultaneously with Merz's visit to the United States, a meeting of NATO defense ministers began in Brussels, at which German representative Boris Pistorius said that Germany would need to increase the number of armed forces by 50-60 thousand people. At the upcoming summit in June, the alliance members plan to agree on a new target for defense spending: it will rise from 2% to 5% of GDP, as Donald Trump insists. Although his rhetoric is more likely to imply shifting responsibility to Europe for its own defense than consolidation against a "common enemy."
At the same time, Germany cannot afford to spend 5% of GDP on defense without resorting to loans, says German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
Thus, the June NATO summit will be a test of strength for US-European relations and will show the real results of the meeting between the German Chancellor and the US president.
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