Future fogs: forest fires in June may break out in almost 40 regions

By the beginning of June, the most difficult situation with forest fires had developed in two regions: the Trans-Baikal Territory and Buryatia, the Federal Forestry Agency told Izvestia. There is a constant need to increase the number of people involved in extinguishing — almost 1.3 thousand specialists from the federal Reserve and neighboring regions have already been sent there. In total, forest fires may engulf about 40 regions in seven federal districts in June, according to the forecast of the Aviation Security Service. The information about where the most difficult situation is predicted can be found in the Izvestia article.

Where the forests will burn

Forest fires in June may cover about 40 regions in seven federal districts, according to a preliminary risk forecast developed by the Aviation Security Service. We are talking about the Northwestern, Central, Southern, Volga, Ural, Siberian, and Far Eastern federal districts. According to the agency, there is no high risk of fire only in the North Caucasus Federal District.

Currently, the most difficult situation remains in the Trans-Baikal Territory and Buryatia, Evgeny Pisarevsky, head of the Department for Forest Fire Protection at the Federal Forestry Agency, told Izvestia.

— In Transbaikalia, 36 forest fires are being extinguished on an area of 935.8 thousand hectares. More than 1,700 people and 211 units of special equipment were involved in extinguishing the fire. In Buryatia, work is underway to extinguish nine forest fires on an area of 81 thousand hectares. 444 people and 65 pieces of special equipment are involved in extinguishing the fire," he said.

According to him, almost 1.3 thousand specialists from other regions and the Federal Reserve have been sent to these two regions. For example, parachutists and paratroopers from ten regions of the Northwest, the Urals, Siberia and the Far East are working in Transbaikalia.

— According to forecasts, dry weather is expected in Transbaikalia and Buryatia, without precipitation, therefore it is necessary to attract all forces and means to extinguish existing fires, — Evgeny Pisarevsky emphasized.

At fires in the Trans-Baikal Territory, security measures had to be strengthened due to wind gusts of 25-30 m/s. Such a wind increases the risks of the occurrence of high-altitude foci, the Aviation Security Service explained. There is also a danger of a lightning-fast spread of flames to the sides for tens of meters.

Whenever possible, the pilots artificially cause precipitation to help the forces working on the ground. Also, during extinguishing, an explosive method is used to lay mineralized strips.

Employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations are also helping to protect settlements, the ministry said. For example, they work near the village of Sypchegur in Transbaikalia, where more than 12 thousand hectares of forest are burning. There is no direct threat to the settlement, but a potential one remains.

— Employees of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations and a search and rescue team from the village of Mogoitui have already treated the edge of the fire with satchel fire extinguishers. On mountainous terrain, you have to work manually, there is no entrance for heavy machinery," the department noted.

In just one day, 42 forest fires were extinguished across the country on an area of 155.8 thousand hectares. 69 fires continue to burn in 13 regions on an area covered by fire over 1 million hectares. An emergency regime has been introduced in three regions throughout Buryatia, the Trans-Baikal Territory, and the Verkhnebureinsky municipality of the Khabarovsk Territory.

A special fire protection regime has been established in 52 regions. The emergency mode for forest fires throughout the region has been established since April 7.

What is the forecast of fire danger?

An emergency fire hazard class has been established in several federal districts, Roman Vilfand, scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center, told Izvestia.

— In the North-Western Federal District, these are separate districts of the Novgorod and Arkhangelsk regions, in the Central Federal District — in the Tver, Yaroslavl, Ivanovo and Voronezh regions, — he noted. — It would seem that there is no south, but there have been rains, they have reduced the fire danger class. The situation is the same in the Moscow region.

In the Volga Federal District, the fifth or extreme class of fire danger is recorded in certain areas of the Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov, Orenburg regions and Chuvashia. In the Southern Federal District — in the Volgograd, Astrakhan regions, in Kalmykia and Crimea.

— In the North Caucasus, the extreme fire danger class is only in Dagestan, because there has been a lot of rain in the North Caucasus Federal District. And in Siberia, due to prolonged hot weather, the fifth class of fire danger is recorded and predicted in the Altai Territory and the Tomsk Region. In the Far East, in the Trans—Baikal Territory, in the east of the Khabarovsk Territory and in Kamchatka," said Roman Vilfand.

Rains should smooth out the situation in the north-west of the country by the end of the week, he assured. In Central Russia, temperatures will be high, but precipitation will also reduce the fire hazard class to the fourth.

— The fifth class of fire danger will remain in Dagestan. And also in the Southern Federal District, where temperatures above 30 degrees are expected throughout the week," he said. — Although rains are forecast in Transbaikalia, they will be local. Widespread rain would affect the situation, but it is not expected.

In the region, according to the meteorologist, the extreme class of fire danger will remain. In addition, the wind will increase there in the next three days, gusts can reach 15-20 m per second.

— That is, the current fires will be fanned by the wind, — Roman Vilfand predicts.

The effects of winter

June is usually the most peaceful summer month in terms of fires, Grigory Kuksin, founder of the Landscape Fire Prevention Center, told Izvestia.

— Now we are coming out of the spring peak of the forest fire season. It is associated with man-made fires, usually grass fires, after which the fire passes into the forest. It usually ends when the green grass grows," the expert explained.

According to him, the spring period in the country was better than usual. Because there are fewer sticks of grass, and the responsiveness to them has increased.

— However, according to official data, we are going worse than the average values, because the main contribution is made by Transbaikalia and the Amur region and Buryatia, which have flared up nearby. The season there is unusually heavy due to a combination of the human factor and the effects of a snowless winter and strong winds," he said.

He also called insufficient water reserves in peat bogs one of the consequences of the snowless winter.

— It also affected Transbaikalia. As far as we can tell from satellite images, some of the fires are not only fresh grass fires, but also last year's fires that survived the winter. We haven't seen anything like this there before," Grigory Kuksin added.

According to him, we are talking about foci in swamps, peat bogs that have survived the winter.

— They are also man-made, they just appeared in the fall and were able to overwinter, — he added.

Throughout Central Russia, after a snowy winter, there is also a noticeable shortage of water in rivers and marshes, the expert noted.

— Therefore, this year there are more than the usual number of peat fires that have to be dealt with. Because people set fire to the grass, and peat caught fire from it. If we don't put it out, then most likely in the summer we will get a dangerous development of these fires, and there will be no water to extinguish them," explained Grigory Kuksin.

According to him, the summer peak of the forest fire season depends not only on the human factor, but also on thunderstorms.

— And these will be fires that occur in the forest area, and not spread to it. They traditionally provide large areas in those regions where there are large so—called control zones," he recalled.

These are remote and hard-to-reach areas where fires are often not extinguished for economic reasons if there is no threat to settlements or economic facilities. According to the expert, we are talking about the regions of Siberia and the Far East.

— This is largely a weather-dependent phenomenon. So far, forecasters are scaring a potentially dry summer. Therefore, we are preparing for a difficult development of the situation," he predicts.

At the same time, it is important for residents to observe fire safety rules, not to start a fire in the forest during the period of the special fire protection regime, and promptly inform the services if smoke is noticed.