Hurricanes of breath: the SARS season has almost come to an end
The incidence of acute respiratory viral infections and influenza is decreasing, and this is happening much faster than last year. As has already been reported in some regions, the season of these respiratory diseases is over, but there are also areas where the incidence is still increasing. In the whole country, its level is below the weekly epidemic threshold by almost 33%, whereas last year during this period it was lower by 14%, according to data from the Smorodintsev Influenza Research Institute. The reason for the earlier end of the season is not only the warm spring of this year, experts say. The peculiarity of the viruses currently circulating also helped: the incidence of them in 2024 was high, so now the body tolerates them more easily.
Where the incidence is decreasing
The incidence of influenza and other acute respiratory viral infections has been actively decreasing this spring — only one week has shown an increase, according to the latest data from the Smorodintsev Influenza Research Institute. And for the last week studied by analysts (from May 26 to June 1, 2025), it was below the threshold by 32.8%. And for the same period in 2024 — by only 13.9%.
Moreover, another indicator — exceeding the total epidemic thresholds for influenza and acute respiratory viral infections by 20%, which indicates a massive spread of the disease — is currently not recorded in any of the 61 cities of Russia studied by analysts, and last year it was exceeded in five cities.
In total, from March to May 2025, at least 20 regions reported a decrease in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections, Izvestia estimated. So, in Crimea, according to the local Rospotrebnadzor, 5.1 thousand cases of acute respiratory viral infections were registered in the week from May 26 to June 1, which is almost 4% lower than in the previous week.
"Laboratory monitoring shows that the current increase in the incidence of respiratory infections in Crimea is due to viruses unrelated to influenza," the agency said in a statement.
From May 26 to June 1, 935 new cases of acute respiratory viral infections were detected in the Penza region, which is almost 5% less than in the previous week. In the Vladimir region, the incidence rate decreased by 10.6% compared to the previous week. The local Rospotrebnadzor noted that respiratory viruses of non—influenza etiology, rhinoviruses and MS viruses, dominate in the region, and no influenza viruses have been detected.
In the Saratov region, according to the regional Rospotrebnadzor, 7,060 cases of acute respiratory viral infections were registered from May 26 to June 1, which is 651 fewer than in the previous week. In the Murmansk Region, 2,997 cases of acute respiratory viral infections and influenza were recorded in the week from May 26 to June 1. This is 27.3% lower than in the previous week.
In Tatarstan, the season of mass influenza and SARS has come to an end, said Lyubov Avdonina, deputy head of the Rospotrebnadzor Department for the republic.
— The situation is calm. We are going below the epidemic threshold by 33%. Over the past week, 25 cases of influenza have been identified, which is only 16% of the total incidence. This suggests that the flu has lost ground," she stressed.
At the same time, in the Amur region, according to the local Rospotrebnadzor, from May 26 to June 1, the incidence of community-acquired infections increased by 9.1% compared to the previous week. And in Karelia, the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections and influenza exceeded the epidemic threshold by 10%.
In response to a request from Izvestia, Rospotrebnadzor reported that in the 2024-2025 season, the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections is gradually decreasing. They noted that they did not consider the situation to be a "rapid decline."
The ministry added that this epidemic season was dominated by influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 (swine flu) viruses, which causes more severe forms of the disease: in March–May 2025, an increase in the number of hospitalized patients was registered relative to the same period in 2024 — 169 thousand.
Causes of the recession
The decrease in morbidity is due to the formation of basic immunity to influenza in the population, a decrease in the virulence (pathogenicity) of influenza viruses, as well as the continued circulation of infections of non-influenza etiology characteristic of this time period, Rospotrebnadzor reported.
The rapid drop in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections in 2025 may be due to the earlier arrival of constant warm weather this spring, says Andrei Kostikov, a therapist at the Medical Center of Dr. Alexandrovsky. He also linked it to a feature of the viruses circulating this year. According to him, they are already familiar to people from last year, so they are not so hard to perceive by the body.
But despite the fact that the probability of getting SARS in the summer is much lower than in the cold season, the risk of infection is not zero, the expert warned.
"You can get SARS at any time of the year," he stressed. — Summer acute respiratory viral infections are more often caused by enteroviruses and adenoviruses. They are less sensitive to heat than influenza viruses.
According to the expert, the use of an air conditioner and being in crowded places increase the likelihood of getting sick in the summer. Also, some types of viruses are transmitted through the household, which makes it possible to become infected from a person who has no symptoms, Andrei Kostikov recalled.
The decrease in the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections was mainly due to a decline in the child population, added Roman Merkulov, an epidemiologist at the UNI Clinics Medical Center.
"This became possible thanks to the work of Rospotrebnadzor on the prevention of SARS outbreaks in children's educational institutions," he believes.
Traditionally, the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections begins to gradually increase in September–October, with a peak in December–February, Andrei Kostikov recalled. This is due to the cooling, the return of children to schools and kindergartens, and the establishment of a comfortable temperature for the circulation of viruses.
What is the damage caused by respiratory diseases
The economic damage from 30 infectious diseases in Russia in 2024 amounted to 1 trillion rubles, the head of Rospotrebnadzor, Anna Popova, said at a meeting with journalists on June 3. Its highest proportion is in acute respiratory viral infections, influenza, covid and chickenpox.
"This is, of course, a significant figure," said the head of the department, adding that high damage from respiratory diseases is observed in all countries of the world.
Anna Popova also noted that all respiratory viruses and intestinal infections have a systemic effect on the body. In particular, she referred to a study according to which the virus damages the walls of blood vessels.
"The growing incidence of the cardiovascular system may be related to this, too," she said. — Of course, we have become more sick with viral infections, precisely because the population on the globe has become incredibly large.
The head of Rospotrebnadzor gave an example: anyone who stands in the lobby of the Novokuznetsk metro station during rush hour for one hour will receive 6,000 airborne contacts.
— And more than 50 years ago, this was impossible. We allow viruses to contact us, we interact with them, so we suffer some damage, and it is not always obvious," she said.
In mid-May, Rospotrebnadzor reported that the minimum incidence of COVID-19 for the entire pandemic period has been recorded for the last two months. At that time, 1,345 cases of the disease were diagnosed in a week.
"There are currently no prerequisites for another wave of COVID-19," the ministry stated. They also reminded that to protect against any respiratory infections, it is recommended to follow basic preventive measures: use personal protective equipment, wash hands with soap, avoid contact with sick people, and ventilate rooms. It is also strongly recommended to stay at home and consult a doctor if a person feels unwell, especially for older people and people with chronic illnesses.
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