Eight OPEC+ countries agreed to increase oil production by 411 thousand b/d in July.

Eight OPEC+ countries have agreed on a third consecutive accelerated increase in oil production by 411,000 barrels per day due to the forecast for the stability of global economies and current strong market factors, which is reflected in low commercial oil reserves, OPEC said in a press release following the meeting.

"Taking into account the stable prospects for the global economy and the current favorable market indicators reflected in low oil reserves, and in accordance with the decision taken on December 5, 2024, to begin a gradual and flexible return of voluntary adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day starting on April 1, 2025, eight participating countries will make adjustments. production by 411,000 barrels per day in July 2025," the alliance said in a statement on its website.

The members of the association noted that "the gradual increase may be suspended or canceled depending on changing market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to maintain stability in the oil market."

The countries also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any under-reduced volumes. However, the press release does not specify when or whether a new compensation schedule should be provided. The next meeting of the countries, where quotas for August will be discussed, is scheduled for July 6.

According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of WMT Consult, despite the US tariff wars and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, oil prices in May mostly stayed above $60 per barrel, but this is significantly lower than the levels at the beginning of the year.

"The average price of Brent crude oil in January of this year was about $77 per barrel. I don't think the current price levels can be called satisfactory. Due to lower oil prices, the Russian Finance Ministry has already lowered its forecast for oil and gas budget revenues by 2.6 trillion rubles and tripled the deficit. Saudi Arabia is reviewing investment projects. The actions of OPEC+ members clearly indicate a desire to maintain and even increase their shares in the global market, as long as the profitability of production allows it," the source told Izvestia.

At the same time, she notes: meanwhile, shale production in the United States, the country that is the leader in black gold production in the world, is on the decline.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' quarterly energy review, shale producers need $65 per barrel to break even. It is currently at $61.53 in the United States, which is 23% lower than this year's high.

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Earlier, on March 3, OPEC issued a statement confirming plans for a gradual and flexible return of voluntary reductions of 2.2 million barrels per day from April 1, 2025. It was reported that the countries took into account healthy market fundamentals and positive prospects.