The expert predicted the dollar exchange rate for the month

The exchange rate of the US dollar in Russia during the month will fluctuate in the range of 82-83 rubles, euro — 91-92 rubles, yuan — 11.3–11.5 rubles. Alexander Shepelev, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, shared this forecast with Izvestia on May 29.

"We believe that the ruble will start to weaken in the coming weeks, especially if the key interest rate is lowered. <...> The basic scenario, it may not materialize in the event of a breakthrough in geopolitics, for example, reaching peace agreements on Ukraine," he noted and added that in the latter case, the national currency may strengthen.

According to Shepelev, the balance of factors is in favor of the ruble, and even the end of the tax period has not shaken his confidence.

"At the moment, there may be a compression of the geopolitical premium on the news about the continuation of the negotiation process to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and the unwillingness of American President Trump to impose new anti—Russian sanctions," he explained.

Shepelev added that the ruble is based on an imbalance between a stable supply of currency and weak demand for it.

"High interest rates have had the maximum effect: we see a sharp cooling in credit demand, including for imports, and demand for durable goods such as electronics, household appliances, and automobiles has decreased, and all of this is mainly supplied from abroad," the expert noted.

He also stressed that the cheaper currencies become, the more attractive they are, given the consensus of analysts expecting a devaluation in the second half of the year.

"Therefore, new highs are becoming harder for the ruble. In addition, the quotes may not yet reflect the decline in oil prices in the second half of spring — this factor may affect in the near future," he said.

Positive call: how the stock market and the ruble react to negotiations and sanctions

The national currency will gain a foothold between 80-85 rubles/$ in the coming month, and the Moscow Exchange index may rise to 3,000 points.

Economist Mikhail Belyaev reported on May 23 that the reason for the dollar's depreciation against the ruble may be related to the actions of the Central Bank of Russia. According to the economist, all fundamental exchange rate-forming factors suggest that the ruble should weaken against the dollar, but this is not happening.