The market of light commercial vehicles in Russia may decrease by 20%

By the end of 2025, sales of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) may decrease by 20% compared to last year. This was announced on May 28 at a conference at the Comvex exhibition in Moscow by Sergey Tselikov, CEO of the Autostat analytical agency. He said that depending on the general economic situation, there are three possible scenarios.

"With an optimistic forecast, this market segment will remain at the level of last year. In a realistic scenario, the market is expected to fall by 10%. The pessimistic scenario assumes a decrease of 20%. So far, we are moving according to the latest scenario," said Tselikov.

The analyst specified that 112 thousand light commercial vehicles will be sold under the first option (10-11 thousand units should be sold per month). With the second, sales will amount to 100.8 thousand cars (8-10 thousand units per month), and with the third — 89.6 thousand units (7-8 thousand units per month).

In April 2025, LCV sales totaled 8,059 vehicles (-14% YoY), and in the first four months of this year — 27.1 thousand (-16%). Until 2020, the country sold a little more than 100 thousand units of such equipment per year. The growth in 2020-2021 was driven by the development of e-commerce in the pandemic. The market decline in 2022 was 48% relative to a high base. At the same time, the recovery of the LCV market in 2023-2024 was slower than the passenger car segment.

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The day before, the analyst said that in 2024, Toyota cars assembled in China accounted for 61% of all sales (12.7 thousand from 20.8 thousand units) of the brand's cars in Russia. In 2025, the share increased to 74%, from January to April of this year, 3,654 copies of Chinese Toyota were sold.