Poor Dodik: the EU is discussing new sanctions against Republika Srpska
Paris and Berlin propose to impose sanctions against Republika Srpska and isolate its leadership, in particular President Milorad Dodik. To do this, they sent an informal document to the EU countries, the so-called non-paper, in which they took the initiative to severely punish the republic for, in their opinion, violating the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The document is called "A response to the actions of Republika Srpska to undermine the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina." Izvestia investigated whether the actions of the EU leaders would have a real effect.
With an informal document
"This paper complicates the situation of the Republika Srpska," said the head of the Serbian General Staff, Milan Mojsilovic, who spoke about the existence of an unofficial French-German document.
The initiative of Paris and Berlin, which is reported by Serbian media, was previously considered at the National Security Council in Belgrade — it was presented by Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic. Moisilovich did not provide any details about the meeting.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic
The document says that the crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina is "the most serious challenge to the unity, sovereignty of the country, as well as its territorial and functional integrity over the past 30 years."
Berlin and Paris believe that "Republika Srpska undermines the state system of Bosnia." The reason for their indignation was the decision of the Parliament of the Republic, which had previously passed laws prohibiting the activities of the most important state structures in Sarajevo on its territory. In addition, the process of adopting a new Constitution of Republika Srpska has also been launched, according to which it will transform from one of the two elements within Bosnia and Herzegovina into a state of the Serbian people with the right to secede and create its own army.
Germany and France are seeking to cancel these initiatives. They decided to act by limiting financial assistance to Republika Srpska, suspending its rapprochement with the European Union, and imposing targeted sanctions against the republic's leadership, including President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik.
It is planned to freeze all projects from which Banja Luka could benefit. We would also like to involve international financial institutions, including the World Bank. As a last resort, individual EU countries could adopt sanctions.
The opposition in Republika Srpska demanded that the authorities immediately resign.
Together against Dodik
In March, the Prosecutor's Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina demanded that the police detain President Milorad Dodik, Prime Minister Radovan Viskovic, as well as Chairman of the National Assembly (Parliament) of Republika Srpska Nenad Stevandic. The politicians were accused of "encroaching on the constitutional order."
Radovan Kovacevic, a spokesman for Dodik's Union of Independent Social Democrats party, said that "Republika Srpska does not carry out any attacks on the constitutional order," and that "no one can or wants" to arrest its government leadership.
The President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, issued a statement after the decision on his detention.
In late February, Milorad Dodik was found guilty of "disobeying the decisions of the chief international envoy in charge of peace in Bosnia, Christian Schmidt." He oversees the implementation of the Dayton Accords, which helped end the 1992-1995 war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and lay the foundations for the country's modern state structure.
According to the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Presidency consists of three members elected simultaneously for four years: one Bosniak and one Croat from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, one Serb from Republika Srpska.
The head of Republika Srpska himself rejects the sentence imposed on him — a year in prison and six years of prohibition from holding public office, considering it anti—Serbian.
What do the experts think
Oleg Bondarenko, the editor-in-chief of the Balkanist project, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that this is not the first time the West has tried to punish Milorad Dodik and other leaders of Republika Srpska with sanctions, but the result is still practically zero.
Banja Luka. During the rally in support of the President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik
— We know that Milorad Dodik and Zeljka Cvijanovic have been under US and UK sanctions for several years. However, now, for example, Cvijanovic, the former president of Republika Srpska and now a member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is on an official visit to the United States, meaning these sanctions do not prevent her from visiting the country that actually imposed these sanctions on her," the expert explained.
The Balkanist added that Milorad Dodik had not been to key Western capitals for a long time, but at the same time managed to build strong relations with Russia.
— Dodik builds stable relations with those European leaders with whom he has mutual understanding. In particular, with Viktor Orban, Hungary is an investor in the republic's economy. In addition, Dodik has the warmest relations with Vladimir Putin, and his last visit to Moscow on Victory Day confirmed this. Although before that, we heard news about how they were trying to declare Milorad Dodik almost a person who violated the law, and try to arrest him, but nothing came of it," the expert believes.
According to him, "despite the unconstitutional court decision in Sarajevo," Milorad Dodik is at large and will remain at large.
— This is an illegal decision, which does not prevent Milorad Dodik from traveling, inviting large international delegations to Banja Luka, flying himself to Tel Aviv, Moscow, Budapest, etc. In other words, Milorad Dodik does not have a travel ban even within the EU," the analyst believes.
Bondarenko clarified that the non-paper document format is just a declaration that is recommended for review, but is not at all mandatory. It will not affect anything either because Budapest will always block any practical attempts to restrict the freedom of movement of the Republika Srpska leadership.
Milan Lazovich, program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), also noted in an interview with Izvestia that Republika Srpska has been under pressure and sanctions restrictions from the West for quite some time.
— We are facing a fabricated, politically motivated trial against President Milorad Dodik. The expected step from the West is aimed at weakening Banja Luka, and in the future, ideally, bringing the Republika Srpska to self-destruction," the Balkanist believes.
According to the expert, it will not be so easy for the West. Republika Srpska has a certain margin of safety, has already adapted to constant pressure, therefore it is developing contacts with the leading major powers that support it at the international level, primarily Russia and China.
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