Kovalchuk noted the multidirectional dynamics of key economic indicators

The main parameters of the forecast of socio-economic development for 2026 and the planning period 2027-2028 have been adjusted to reflect current trends, and changes in indicators over the forecast horizon are multidirectional. This was announced on May 26 by Boris Kovalchuk, Chairman of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, during a meeting of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes.

Thus, the forecast for 2025 has been worsened in terms of the growth rate of investments in fixed assets — from 2.1% to 1.7%, as well as in terms of real wages — from 7% to 6.8%.

At the same time, expectations for industrial production growth have been adjusted positively — from 2% to 2.6%, as well as for the ruble exchange rate — from 96.5 to 94.3 rubles per US dollar.

"By the end of 2024, growth was 7.4%, and further, as monetary policy eases, growth is expected to accelerate to 3.7% in 2028," Kovalchuk added.

At the same time, he stressed that, despite the expected improvement in conditions, monetary policy in 2025 will remain quite tight. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Russia, the key rate will continue to significantly exceed the inflation rate.

Three steps back: the market expects the key rate to decrease to only 19% by the end of 2025

When will the Central Bank start reducing it and why will it do it gradually

The head of the Central Bank (CB) of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, said on April 25 that in order to reduce inflation in Russia, it is necessary to maintain a long-term rigid PREP. According to her, the regulator expects that inflation will continue to decline and fall to the target level of 4% in 2026.