How the Ukrainian migration crisis is developing in Europe. Analysis

There are 6.9 million Ukrainian emigrants worldwide, with the majority residing in the EU — almost 6.4 million. At the beginning of the SVR, European countries provided refugees with housing, benefits and allowances. However, now Europe and the United States are tired of providing migrants and are rapidly reducing the amount of aid. How exactly government support measures are being reduced and why more and more local residents are dissatisfied with Ukrainians is in the Izvestia article.

Reduction of aid in European countries

• Currently, Ukrainian refugees in Europe are under temporary protection. This gives them access to various preferences. At the same time, according to Eurostat, in February 2025, only 41,000 asylum decisions were made in the EU. This is 25% less than in February 2024, and the lowest figure since 2022.

• In the countries where Ukrainian refugees most often came, the rules for providing assistance are being changed. For example, Germany is gradually limiting the system of assigning social benefits to Ukrainian refugees. In particular, the Federal Republic of Germany abolished the civil allowance (up to €563 per month) for those who arrived in the country after April 1. Now more than 700 thousand people receive it.

Poland is the second largest country in the EU in terms of the number of Ukrainian refugees (about 1 million people). Last year, Warsaw limited the monthly payment program to 800 zlotys (about 180 euros) per minor. The allowance began to be paid only to families whose children attend Polish schools. The authorities are considering further restrictions. In turn, Polish residents who host Ukrainian migrants were deprived of the right to monetary compensation. The country also canceled a one-time payment to refugees of 300 zlotys (about €70).

• Norway became one of the first European countries to tighten the system of payments to refugees. Among the measures already taken is a reduction in payments for children. Hungary, in turn, stopped financing the accommodation of Ukrainians who arrived from the western regions of the country, which are considered safe.

• Attitudes towards Ukrainians have also changed in Slovakia. For migrants who arrived after February 28 of this year, the maximum period during which they can stay in asylum centers has been reduced (from 120 days to 60). The changes do not apply to families with young children and the elderly.

• In general, European countries are reducing assistance to Ukrainian refugees due to the increasing budget burden, the growth of internal social problems and the depletion of resources aimed at long-term support for millions of people. Health, education, and social protection systems in many countries have been overwhelmed, and initially temporary relief measures have been delayed for several years.

• The energy crisis and inflation have further exacerbated the need to redistribute resources in favor of the local population. Pressure from the population and parties has increased in the political space, demanding that the interests of their citizens be prioritized. This leads to a gradual reduction in benefits, preferential housing, and integration programs.

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• As a result, Ukrainian refugees face the need to adapt more quickly to local labor markets and to live without support. Against the background of a decrease in the level of assistance, the risk of an increase in shadow employment, social tension and the marginalization of those who did not manage to integrate increases.

Trump's anti-immigration policy

• Under former White House Chief of Staff Joe Biden, Ukrainians were granted temporary protected status, which allowed migrants to stay in the United States if they could not safely return to their country. But in May, The Washington Post learned that the administration of the current US President, Donald Trump, is going to spend up to $250 million to return people who fled to the United States from natural disasters or armed conflicts to their homeland. In the documents received by the publication, it is noted that 200 thousand citizens of Ukraine can become part of the process of voluntary resettlement.

• Also in May, Donald Trump signed a decree launching a program of voluntary deportation of migrants. He explained that any illegal immigrant can simply arrive at the airport and get a free ticket from the United States. In addition, those who leave voluntarily will be paid $1,000.

• Trump is likely to continue to tighten immigration policy. He has repeatedly stressed that his team's priority is to provide jobs for Americans and reduce social spending. The White House refuses to take responsibility for the future of Ukrainians and their homeland.

From refugees to illegal migrants

• According to a study by the Ukrainian Research Center for Economic Strategy, currently only 43% of refugees plan to return to their homeland. Two years ago, it was 74%.

• In most EU countries, many Ukrainian refugees do not work. The Economist newspaper found that 43% of Ukrainians were employed in Germany by the end of 2024, while the figure is even lower in Italy and Spain.

• However, there are exceptions to the employment rate. For example, in Poland, the share of refugees (mostly women) who are working or actively looking for work has exceeded 67%. According to the consulting company Deloitte, Ukrainians increased Poland's GDP by 1.1% in 2023. The Polish University of Economics says that without migrants, the number of workers in the country would have decreased by 2.1 million people in the next decade due to the aging of the population.

Complaints of Ukrainian refugees

• The European labor market is formally open to Ukrainian refugees. However, in reality, it's not that simple. For example, in Germany, 72% of Ukrainians have higher education, but most of them are engaged in low-skilled labor or do not work at all. In Poland, many Ukrainians also occupy positions below their qualifications. The reason lies in the fact that employers do not want to hire Ukrainian refugees, because they can at any time be deprived of a special status that allows them to find work.

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The restrictions affected drivers, artists, journalists and other categories.

• In addition, complaints from Ukrainians themselves about the poor treatment of them by the locals have become more frequent. In Poland, dozens of refugees have told local media that they have seen an increase in anti-Ukrainian sentiment in recent months. The interlocutors shared that they had experienced abuse in public transport and harassment in schools. Two years ago, 81% of Poles were in favor of the country accepting Ukrainian refugees, but in the spring of 2025, the figure dropped to 50%.

• In the UK, Ukrainians complain that in some schools and colleges students are forced to take final exams in the Russian language, although they do not want to. A study by The Telegraph showed that since 2022, the total number of applications for this subject has increased by 47%. Last year, almost 3.5 thousand students studied Russian in the UK, and in 2022 there were 2.4 thousand. In total, more than 20 thousand Ukrainian children received places in British schools in the 2022/23 academic year.

• The growing interest in Russian may be explained, in particular, by the fact that Russia is receiving increased attention due to its role on the world stage. But some refugees believe that Ukrainian students are being pressured to choose Russian. The Ukrainian language is not yet a subject that can be chosen for the exam.

Ukrainians are also dissatisfied with the conditions of accommodation in some refugee centers in Ireland. People lived there without heating or hot water, in rooms with mold and rats. In some centers, refugees were poisoned by the food provided — parasites were found in it.

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This is due to the law on foreign agents, which will be considered in the third reading in the near future.

• Ukrainian Roma also complained about discrimination — in Moldova, in a specially created refugee reception center for them, they lived without heating or hot water during the cold weather. In the Czech Republic, rum was not given hot food, and they had to sleep on the station floor. There were also stories that Roma were repeatedly accused of lying in refugee reception centers: they allegedly lied that they were Ukrainians in order to steal humanitarian aid.

Prospects for the development of the crisis

• The future of Ukrainian refugees in Europe against the background of reduced aid programs will depend on their ability to quickly integrate into the economy and social structure of the host countries. Government subsidies, free housing, and preferential services are gradually being phased out. Migrants face the need to provide for their own living, employment, and adaptation.

• Those who have already mastered the language and got a stable job will be able to gain a foothold and legalize their stay for a long time. However, a significant part remains in a vulnerable position — without a stable income, with limited access to education and medical services. At the same time, European countries are likely to tighten their stay requirements. They will rely on economically active migrants. This may lead to a gradual transition from the humanitarian support model to the selection of those who are needed by the local economy.