He is not like that: the new leadership of Syria has been accused of apostasy
The main ideologue of jihadism, Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, declared Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa an "infidel." He is charged with refusing to introduce Sharia law and establishing secular laws in Syria. The next day, during a Senate hearing, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he did not rule out the fall of the interim Syrian government "within a few weeks" and the outbreak of a "large-scale civil war." Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Abandoning Syria's sanctions: the reaction in the country
On May 14, US President Donald Trump met with the interim head of Syria, Ahmad al-Sharaa (from January 29, 2025, the president of Syria for a transitional period, as well as one of the leaders of the Syrian opposition offensive in 2024, which led to the overthrow of head of state Bashar al-Assad). It was announced that the United States would begin lifting sanctions that had been imposed on Damascus for decades since the reign of Hafez al-Assad and during the presidency of his son, Bashar al-Assad.
US President Donald Trump, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during a meeting in Riyadh. May 14, 2025
However, a few days later, one of the main ideologists of Salafi jihadism, Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, declared Ahmad al-Sharaa an infidel.
Salafi jihadism is a religious and political Sunni Islamist ideology that seeks to establish a worldwide caliphate.
"How can someone who refuses to follow Islamic law and chooses laws created by people not be an infidel? Is his history of jihad an obstacle for takfir?" — this is the new fatwa of Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi.
Besides him, all those who support Ahmad al-Sharaa "in his laws contrary to Sharia law" are also declared infidels.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa speaks at a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron after a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris. May 7, 2025
A radical Islamist opposition gradually formed in the country, which saw al-Sharaa's diplomatic steps as a direct threat, and their rhetoric boiled down to accusations of betrayal and wrong faith. Among other things, al-Sharaa is accused of being ready to normalize relations with Israel through a hypothetical accession to the "Avraham accords."
The degree of influence exerted by al-Maqdisi's statement is relative, rather it is a projection of intra-Syrian political discussions, said Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies of the National Academy of Sciences.
— Al-Maqdisi's fatwa is a reflection of what is happening within the Islamist discourse of recent times regarding the future of Syria. These discussions nevertheless existed in isolation from the real political decisions of the new leadership of the country. It sought to gain international recognition, then to lift sanctions and receive financial assistance. Ideology, which used to be a consolidating factor for the groups that came to power, has now become an obstacle, the expert admits.
Lukyanov recalls that for Islamism, which does not recognize national borders and seeks to build an Islamic caliphate, the victory in Syria was tactical in nature. Tensions are particularly intensifying in connection with the intentions to eliminate those with whose help it was possible to seize power, in particular foreign groups. Disagreements will intensify, the orientalist warns.
On the other hand, al-Sharaa has had the support of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey for some time. These are serious cards that many players inside Syria accept and recognize.
Is a civil war possible in Syria
A few days after the announcement of the lifting of sanctions against Syria, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the current government of the country could face collapse in a few weeks, which could lead to a split.
"But on the other hand, if we cooperate with them, it may or may not work. If we didn't work with them, it would definitely not work. In fact, according to our assessment, the transitional government, given the challenges it faces, is perhaps a few weeks, a few months away from a potential collapse and a full—scale civil war, which will have grandiose proportions and generally lead to a split in the country," Marco Rubio said at a hearing in the Committee on Foreign Affairs. the Senate of the United States Congress.
According to him, Washington should help the Syrian government because the alternative would be "a full-scale civil war and chaos, which, naturally, would lead to the destabilization of the entire region."
According to Dmitry Suslov, an expert at the Valdai Club and Deputy director of the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics, Rubio was simply stating the real state of affairs caused by the extremely unstable political situation in Syria.
— Indeed, we see that the Druze do not obey the central government, and the Alawites still have very big problems with the current authorities in Damascus. The Kurds are not yet subordinate to the government, although they can strengthen the dialogue with Damascus in the context of the alleged withdrawal of the United States from Syria, the expert argues.
In his opinion, the US Secretary of State's statement is very destabilizing due to the fact that it "may be a self-fulfilling prophecy and interpreted by regional actors, primarily Israel and Turkey, as carte blanche for the dismemberment of Syria.
"But it seems to me that Rubio still did not pursue such a goal and simply described the reality, which is that the central government in Syria is very weak," suggests Dmitry Suslov.
The expert also draws attention to the fact that armed groups that do not obey the central government continue to exist in the country. In fact, Suslov admits, Syria is currently a "failed state," which is why the threat of a major war and the complete collapse of the country is great.
Orientalist Kirill Semenov notes that Ahmad al-Sharaa has long pursued a policy that does not fit into the past framework of Salafi jihadism, but the leaders of these opinions have left him alone for the time being. Al-Maqdisi is the first one who eventually stopped remaining silent and issued a fatwa. According to the jihadists, the president is creating a new Syrian state based on non-Islamic principles and non-Sharia law.
— The fact that Al-Maqdisi did not remain silent and directly accused him of disbelief makes it possible for radical supporters not to obey him (Ahmad al-Sharaa — Ed.) in any way. That is, he is an unacceptable ruler for them, and the radicals may embark on an open struggle against him," the expert believes.
Speaking about Marco Rubio's words, Kirill Semenov believes that his statement should not be interpreted as unambiguous.
— First of all, we must understand that Rubio was against lifting sanctions on Syria, so he is against the agreement with Iran, and he is in favor of Israel. This means that he can afford to say too much in some moments. Secondly, it's more about the general thrust of the statement. Rubio said that if the new Syrian regime is not given appropriate support, then this will happen (civil war. — Ed.). To a certain extent, he justified Trump's decision to lift sanctions in this way. We are talking about this, and not about the fact that the country is bound to fall apart," the expert concludes.
Speaking about the balance of power, it should be emphasized that the leaders of the Kurds, Druze, and especially the Alawites and Christians who do not have consolidated military formations do not claim power in all of Syria, Grigory Lukyanov points out. But there is a more than serious threat from units that previously operated on the territory of the Idlib enclave, and are now part of the security forces of the new Syrian regime.
— They are in no hurry to form political parties or disarm. But at the same time, they have enough complaints about the new government. And they are the ones who pose a real danger in terms of potential destabilization in Syria. It was precisely to strengthen al-Sharaa's position among the population that American sanctions were lifted. However, so far the Syrians are not supported by any of the dominant forces," the orientalist notes.
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