The expert explained the growth of the bitcoin exchange rate

The bitcoin exchange rate has exceeded $109,500, according to Coindesk data. Director of Communications of the cryptocurrency exchange exmo.me Mikhail Smirnov told Izvestia on May 21 about the reasons for the growth of the cryptocurrency.

"The fundamental support of the uptrend remains. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is in the "green" zone — about 82% of market participants share a positive sentiment. Bitcoin's volatility remains low, and the relative strength index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating a predominance of purchases. At the same time, there is a margin up to the overbought zone (70), which leaves room for growth without the risk of a sharp correction," the expert noted.

According to him, there is a return of the ratio of market and realized capitalization to the "bullish" zone — in the past, such a signal preceded the renewal of the highs. An additional driver was the growth of global liquidity, which historically correlates with the dynamics of bitcoin with a lag of two to three months.

"The capitalization of stablecoins is also showing growth. This may indicate that investors are preparing to enter the market — stablecoins are traditionally used to buy cryptocurrencies. At the same time, the outflow of bitcoin from exchanges continues: users move assets to cold storage, reducing the available supply. This increases the shortage, which can support the price in conditions of stable demand," Smirnov added.

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The expert clarified that an additional indicator of the growing interest was the commissions in the network: in May, they again approached the highs of 2025. Users compete for inclusion in blocks in an effort to complete transactions faster, most often in order to sell coins at an attractive price. Commission growth is an indicator of network congestion and increased activity.

"Positive signals are coming from miners as well. According to Glassnode, the MPI index indicates a decrease in sales from BTC miners — this is usually interpreted as an expectation of further price growth," Smirnov said.

He did not rule out that bitcoin will continue to grow, moving towards $ 130 thousand. already in June. But there is a risk of another scenario developing: a short-term correction in June to $99,000, followed by an increase to $133,000.

The bitcoin market demonstrates high stability and retains potential for growth, the expert emphasized.

"It is possible to update the maximum in May, but it requires maintaining institutional demand and a stable geopolitical situation. Technical and fundamental signals remain mostly positive, but overheating of individual metrics, lack of retail and possible external shocks may limit movement. June may become a new impulse stage, however, not only growth is on the agenda, but also a potential correction," he concluded.

Earlier, on May 12, Denis Astafyev, founder of the SharesPro investment company, told Izvestia that bitcoin could update its historical maximum in 2025. In his opinion, the rate may reach $ 120-130 thousand.