The expert predicted the dollar exchange rate at the end of May

The ruble has strengthened against the dollar by 21.5% since the beginning of 2025, and has grown by 11% since the beginning of spring. Spartak Sobolev, head of the Alfa-Forex Investment Strategy Research Department, told Izvestia about this on May 22.

"Today, there are no signs of a reversal of the current trend in the market, factors slowing down the dynamics of the ruble's strengthening make it possible to end the first half of the year below the level of 85 rubles per dollar," he said.

The expert suggested that the new sanctions probably will not have a significant impact on the current smooth downward trend of the oil market, but they may affect the sale of oil exports, which will affect budget revenues with a possible reduction in the trade surplus. As a result, pressure may be exerted on the ruble.

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"By the end of spring, the ruble's strengthening trend is likely to slow down in the range of 79-86 rubles per dollar, 88-95 rubles per euro and 10.9–11.8 rubles per yuan," Sobolev said.

According to him, the prospect of fluctuations in the national currency in early summer can be more accurately determined after the end of the May session.

"The main factors influencing the ruble exchange rate until the end of the second quarter will remain geopolitics and the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. Until the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank (Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The ruble may reach new highs against its main competitors in the foreign exchange market," the expert added.

According to the Central Bank, on May 22, the dollar is at 79.75 rubles, the euro is at 91, and the yuan is at 11 rubles.

Earlier, on April 8, the Central Bank of Russia reported that the ruble strengthened in March due to a good trade balance and demand for ruble assets. At the same time, it is noted that due to the geopolitical situation and signals of maintaining tight monetary policy, the Moscow Exchange index showed negative dynamics at the end of the month.